All 30 MLB teams are in action today, Wednesday August 28.
That jam-packed slate means there are plenty of MLB odds to sift through. Luckily, our MLB betting experts have already done the hard part.
After combing through the odds, they've identified two MLB best bets, featuring moneyline picks and predictions for Astros vs Phillies and Orioles vs Dodgers.
MLB Best Bets & Moneyline Picks for Wednesday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Wednesday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Astros vs Phillies Best Bet: Back Houston on Road
By Tony Sartori
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball. As a result, there are often favorable lines against them, even when they are throwing out a fade-worthy pitcher like Taijuan Walker. The right-hander is 3-5 with a 6.26 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP through 13 starts this season.
Analytically speaking, Walker is perhaps the worst pitcher in baseball. He possesses a 6.69 xERA and ranks in the lowest percentile in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
On the other hand, the Huston Astros will hand the ball to right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. He's not the best pitcher in the league by any means, but he outranks Walker in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
The pitching advantage doesn't stop there as Houston's bullpen outranks Philadelphia's in ERA. That just leaves the hitting, which is the Phillies' main advantage.
With that said, the Astros also rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs, so the gap between the lineup isn't as wide as the gap in pitching in this matchup.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (-108)
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William Boor's Orioles vs Dodgers Best Bet: Fade Buehler
By William Boor
It's not often we get a chance to bet the Orioles at plus money, so I'm going to take advantage of this opportunity. Yes, the Orioles, who are 4-6 in their past 10, have scuffled a bit of late, but I still think this is a good spot to back Baltimore as it battles for the AL East crown.
After splitting a four-game series at home against the Astros, the Orioles had Monday off to travel to Los Angeles. That's a long flight, but I think the off day came at a good time for this team. Not only did it give Baltimore a chance to reset its bullpen before its series against the Dodgers, but it also gave the players a chance to take a breath after playing 13 games in 13 days.
Both these offenses are elite, averaging just under five runs per game and ranking third and fourth in the league, so let's get to the pitching — the reason I'm backing Baltimore.
The Dodgers are slated to start Walker Buehler, who has given up three earned runs or more in eight of his 10 starts this season. The right-hander has a 6.09 ERA, a 5.28 xERA and the rest of his metrics are just as disappointing. Buehler ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in strikeout rate, chase rate, whiff percentage, xERA and xBA.
Baltimore will counter with Corbin Burnes, who has struggled lately (20 earned runs over 20 2/3 innings in four August starts), but has strong season-long metrics.
The 29-year-old has pitched to a 3.28 ERA with a 3.34 xERA and ranks in the 90th percentile in chase rate and the 91st percentile in hard-hit percentage As a whole, Burnes' Baseball Savant page is as a red as a stop sign.
August has been tough, but the metrics are solid and suggest a turnaround is coming. The same can't be said for Buehler, which is why I'm grabbing the Orioles as underdogs.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+100)
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