Check out our four MLB best bets, picks and predictions for Friday, August 30. These MLB best bets and picks not only include a side and total, but also a pair of MLB player props.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 8:05 p.m. | |
  | 8:10 p.m. | |
  | 8:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James' Braves vs Phillies Best Bet: Bet Lopez and the Braves
By D.J. James
Ranger Suárez is an excellent and usually reliable arm for the Philadelphia Phillies. But while he has a 2.82 ERA against a 3.15 xERA and an elite groundball rate, he has slipped up in recent games. And while he bounced back in his latest start, he posted a 6.61 ERA in July.
His opponent will be Reynaldo López and the Atlanta Braves, who have been clinging to a National League wild-card spot for a while now. López owns a 2.02 ERA and xERA just above 4.00. Negative regression might come his way soon because of a below-average batted-ball profile. Still, he can log innings and get hitters to swing-and-miss. He has a 25.3% strikeout rate and has looked sharp in August.
The Phillies have a 93 wRC+, 6.3% walk rate, and 21.6% strikeout rate against lefties in the last month.
The Braves have hammered lefties in the last month despite a plague of injuries. They have a 126 wRC+, 12% walk rate, and 27.1% strikeout rate.
In relief, the Phils have a 4.13 xFIP with a 23.8% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate in the last month.
The Braves own a 3.45 xFIP, 26.6% strikeout rate, and a walk rate under 8%.
López can be just as effective as Suárez. Atlanta has trounced lefties lately, and their bullpen can carry a workload.
Pick: Braves ML (+120)
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Doug Ziefel's Athletics vs Rangers Best Bet: Fade this Starter
By Doug Ziefel
There are so many question marks entering this outing for Jon Gray. This will be his third start since returning from a groin injury, but we have only seen him record six outs in each of his first two starts back.
In Pittsburgh, he was fine through his two innings of work, allowing one run on two hits. However, against Cleveland, he was shelled, allowing six earned runs on six hits.
These two short outings have not allowed him to build up his pitch count, so the length of this outing is unknown. However, what is known is that Gray is still due for significant regression.
His SIERA of 4.30 and xFIP of 4.23 dwarf his FIP of 3.50, which means he's been very fortunate this season. Impending regression is not something you want to carry into an outing, even against the A's.
Although this matchup against the A's is not as good as it seems, Oakland has done a great job of cutting down on strikeouts lately, as they rank 17th in strikeout rate against righties over the last month.
This will make it very difficult for Gray to exceed his strikeout total, which is too high for him under normal circumstances.
He has gone under this total in 17 of his 22 starts this season, and we'll likely see that number tick up to 18 tonight.
Pick: Jon Gray Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
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Alex Kolodziej's Royals vs Astros Best Bet: The PRO Pick
Under the “Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams” PRO system, we should bet the under when two winning teams square off and more than 66% of tickets are on the over.
That's exactly what we're seeing for the Royals vs. Astros on Friday.
Kansas City is admittedly a trendy over team, but the Royals have benefited from their home park, which ranks fourth among MLB ballparks in Park Factor.
Minute Maid Park, meanwhile, is just a league-average run-scoring environment.
Seth Lugo’s been terrific this season, and the public may be inflating the total just a tad due to records — historically, what we’ve seen from the PRO System, which sports a cool win rate near 54%.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
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Tony Sartori's Orioles vs Rockies Best Bet: Fade Suarez
By Tony Sartori
The Baltimore Orioles hand the ball to right-hander Albert Suarez on Friday, and he should be a good fade candidate.
While Suarez possesses a 3.18 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 26 appearances on the mound this season, his underlying metrics suggest that this luck will run out soon.
The right-hander has a 4.11 xERA and .248 xBA entering this matchup. We will target this expected regression in the prop market.
Suarez ranks in the 36th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 3.5, a total he has failed to surpass in his last start and his lone career start against the ColoradoRockies.
Pick: Albert Suarez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
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