Even with a limited slate, our Action Network staff has come through with three MLB best bets and Thursday predictions for August 15. Those bets include two MLB picks in Athletics vs. Mets and a moneyline play for Red Sox vs. Orioles.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 p.m. | |
| 1:10 p.m. | |
  | 6:35 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Athletics vs. Mets Best Bet: Fade Both Starters
By Tony Sartori
Mitch Spence takes the mound for Oakland, and he should be a good fade candidate. The rookie hurler is 7-8 through 26 appearances on the mound with a 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as Spence ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. These woes will likely continue against New York, a team that ranks in the top-10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Meanwhile, the Mets hand the ball to Jose Quintana, who is hardly any better than Spence. Quintana is 6-8 through 23 starts with a 4.10 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
His analytics suggest that regression is likely as the right-hander ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. That could be an issue against a power-heavy A's lineup that ranks fifth in home runs this season.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 | Play to -110)
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Nick Martin's Athletics vs Mets Best Bet: Oakland Crushing Lefties
By Nick Martin
The Athletics entered August riding high after recording their first winning month since July 2022, and have remained in sneaky good form with a record of 6-5. Given that Oakland is still consistently a fairly juicy underdog, it has been a great side to bet over the last six weeks given the team's surprisingly strong run of play.
At +150 we look to be getting another quality opportunity to back the A's as Mitch Spence takes on Jose Quintana on Wednesday afternoon.
Based on the vast majority of underlying statistics, Quintana looks like the lesser of the starters in this matchup. Quintana holds an xERA of 4.91 with an xFIP of 4.50. Quintana's K/BB ratio comes in at just 2.22, and he owns a Stuff+ rating of 83.
Spence, meanwhile, boasts a pretty solid underlying profile, with an xERA of 3.76 and an xFIP of 4.12. He also holds a Stuff+ rating of 100 and a Location+ rating of 102.
The Athletics have been extremely hard on left-handed pitching for what has become a pretty significant sample. Dating back to May 1st Oakland ranks first in MLB with a wRC+ of 126 against LHP.
Since the start of July Oakland also ranks first versus lefties with a wRC+ of 154. It also owns the second-best BB/K in that span and a woBA of .383.
The Athletics will miss some offensive upside with Brent Rooker missing from the lineup Wednesday, but +150 is still a great number given their splits versus left-handed pitching and the edge Spence provides over Quintana.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline (+150 | Play to +135)
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D.J. James' Red Sox vs Orioles Best Bet: Boston Boasts Slight Advantage
By D.J. James
Zach Eflin was a great acquisition for the Baltimore Orioles, who sorely needed starting pitching help at the trade deadline, after being peppered with injuries to their pitching staff. Eflin has a 3.83 ERA and 3.30 xERA on the year. His ground-ball rate is nothing impressive, but his Hard-Hit Rate is above average, as is his Average Exit Velocity. His chase rate is exceptional, despite a subpar strikeout rate, and he rarely walks anyone.
However, his opponent will be the Boston Red Sox and Nick Pivetta, who should see some positive regression soon with his 4.44 ERA and 3.55 xERA. That said, he rarely keeps the ball on the ground and has a worse Hard-Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity than Eflin. However, his strikeout rate is elite at nearly 30% with a walk rate under 6%.
Baltimore has a 127 wRC+, 10% walk rate, and 21.6% strikeout rate against righties in the last month.
Boston has a 124 wRC+, 7% walk rate, and 24.2% strikeout rate against righties in the last month.
In relief, neither team has been impressive in that same timeframe, although Boston’s bullpen has been one of the worst in the league. Both starters can pitch deep into the game, though, and offset whatever damage a bullpen with a 4.00+ xFIP can do to their starts.
Both of these teams are fairly even, but I'm taking the underdog in Boston.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+126 | Play to +100)
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