Sadly, we have arrived at the final Friday of the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season. Our baseball experts, however, continue to truck on and have delivered three MLB best bets for Friday, September 27.
Find their prop picks and predictions for Rays vs Red Sox, Astros vs Guardians and more below.
MLB Best Bets & Friday Prop Picks, Predictions — 9/27
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James's Rays vs Red Sox Best Bet: Tampa Holds Slight Edge
By D.J. James
Nick Pivetta has a 4.21 ERA and 3.65 xERA this year. His Average Exit Velocity, though, is above 89 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 50th percentile. As impressive as his walk and strikeout numbers are, he rarely keeps the ball on the ground (6th percentile), which can be a major issue with hard contact in the air.
He and the Red Sox will take on Taj Bradley and the Rays on Friday. Bradley has a 4.29 ERA and 4.20 xERA. Like Pivetta, he allows hard contact and will do so more often. He has good strikeout, chase and whiff numbers, but his pitch counts can skyrocket because of walks.
However, the Red Sox have been awful when facing righties in the last month. They have a 68 wRC+, 7.8% walk rate and 25.8% strikeout rate. The Rays have been a bit better — they carry a 97 wRC+, 6.7% walk rate and 26.1% strikeout rate against righties in the last month.
Since both starting pitchers are comparable, this is a clear edge to Tampa Bay.
In relief, Boston holds a 3.90 ERA with a 9.7% walk rate and 22.9% strikeout rate in the last month. Tampa Bay has a 3.86 xFIP, 8.1% walk rate and 25.2% strikeout rate in relief in the last month.
The Rays should be favored, even though they are on the road. Bet them from +115 to -115 in this game.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (+115 | play to -115)
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Justin Perri's Astros vs Guardians Best Bet: How to Bet the First Five Innings
By Justin Perri
The Guardians sit a game behind the Yankees for the best record in the American League with just three games left to play. That means they need a big win tonight to keep pace or tie, depending on New York's result.
Cleveland doesn't often win unless its pitching is leading the way. The Guardians use a plethora of lesser-name starters combined with an elite bullpen to keep their opponents off the board and win low scoring affairs, especially of late, where they're 2-8 O/U.
The bottom line is that there should be every reason to have start Joey Cantillo on a short leash, which means his performance will either be optimal, or we will see him depart before the damage gets too great — perfect for an Under. He'll also be facing a depleted Astros offense that has clinched the AL West already, and might lack motivation to score runs or win with their focus being on their wild-card matchup.
The pitching for Houston, however, should still be trustworthy, as Ronel Blanco is having a stellar year and has every reason to go into this start as a final tuneup against a legitimate, playoff offense. He might have a short leash, as the Astros have indicated he may be a bit fatigued, so he may only get 4-5 innings of work, but that should be enough.
Blanco consistently earns high whiff counts, thanks to his slider being in elite form. He should be in a good spot to limit Cleveland and keep this game competitive, helping the F5 Under get home.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-115 | play to -130)
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Tony Sartori's Padres vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Prime Matchup for Tatis
By Tony Sartori
The Diamondbacks hand the ball to right-hander Merrill Kelly on Friday, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through 12 starts this season, he possesses a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Those are not terrible numbers, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. Kelly sports a 5.10 xERA and ranks in the 17th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Padres, a team he owns a 5.71 ERA against over the past three meetings.
Even if Kelly secures another solid outing, I don't trust the bullpen that follows him. This season, the D-backs' relief pitching ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Subsequently, I want to back a member of San Diego's powerhouse lineup.
Enter: Fernando Tatis Jr.
In 25 career plate appearances against Kelly, Tatis boasts a .364 BA, .955 SLG and .553 wOBA. Those are astonishing numbers, and that success is likely to continue on Friday when you consider his recent form. Tatis has recorded at least two hits + runs + RBI in 11 of his last 14 games.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-145 | play to -150)
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