We made it to Friday!
With a 15-game MLB slate on deck, our staff has cooked up four MLB Best Bets, including two picks for Athletics vs Blue Jays and Reds vs Brewers.
MLB Best Bets & Friday Predictions, Props
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:07 p.m. | |
  | 8:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tanner McGrath's Rangers vs Yankees Best Bet: Check Out Cody Bradford!
Editor's Note: The Rangers-Yankees game scheduled for Friday was postponed. A traditional doubleheader is scheduled for Saturday.
Rangers rookie pitcher Cody Bradford, who starts against the Yankees on Friday, is an intriguing young arm. He doesn’t blow you away with “stuff,” tossing a low-90s fastball over half the time. But he’s an amazing command-and-control arm with a 70-grade changeup and a fastball that plays thanks to elite extension (over 7 feet) and excellent carry (17-inch Induced vertical break). Altogether, he has a combined whiff rate of nearly 30% on both pitches, helping him produce an ERA under four and an expected ERA under three.
He’ll oppose Carlos Rodon, who has had a shaky season for the Yankees. Although he’s looked better in recent starts with some extra velocity, Rodon still has an ERA over four since June started, right in line with his expected run indicators (4.37 ERA, 4.22 xERA, 4.59 FIP, 4.21 xFIP).
The Yankees have an obvious position player advantage, but the Rangers are trending up in the lineup. Texas is also better against left-handed pitching (97 wRC+) than right-handed pitching (89 wRC+).
The Yankees likely have a bullpen advantage, but it’s not significant. Rangers relievers are erratic, but they got a big boost to that unit by acquiring Andrew Chafin from the Tigers. The Yankees acquired Mark Leiter Jr., and closer Clay Holmes has improved lately, but I still have issues trusting setup men Luke Weaver and Tommy Kahnle. All in all, the Yankees own a below-average relief corps.
The Rangers have some value on Friday behind the up-and-coming Bradford. He’s likely undervalued, especially against Rodon, who could be slightly overvalued based on name alone.
Pick: Rangers ML (+170)
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Tony Sartori's Rangers vs Yankees Best Bet: These Lineups Can Bash
By Tony Sartori
Let's get the hitting out of the way, as both lineups can put up runs.
The New York Yankees rank in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers should have no issue teeing off on Carlos Rodon, who takes the mound for New York. Through 58 combined career plate appearances against Rodon, this Texas lineup boasts a .275 BA, .490 SLG and .367 wOBA.
That success at the dish will likely continue, given Rodon's woes this season. He possesses a 4.37 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through 23 starts and ranks in the league's bottom half in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
On the other hand, the Rangers hand the ball to Cody Bradford, who is too volatile for my liking. Given his below-average rankings in average exit velocity and barrel rate, he has the propensity to surrender the deep ball.
There are teams you can get away with that against, but the Yankees are certainly not one of them.
Pick: Over 9 (-105)
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Cody Goggin's Athletics vs Blue Jays Best Bet: A's Should Get To Berrios
By Cody Goggin
The Oakland Athletics aren’t a postseason contender by any means, but they are somewhat overrated offensively.
Despite its reputation as one of the league's worst teams, Oakland ranks 14th in wRC+ this season with an above-average mark of 101. It also ranks 20th in wOBA, 18th in SLG, and 11th in ISO.
Oakland’s biggest offensive problem has been striking out. They strike out 25.1% of the time, the third-highest baseball rate. However, they rank 11th in walk rate, so they aren’t entirely devoid of plate discipline.
The Athletics rank 12th in hard-hit rate, fifth in barrel rate, and sixth in exit velocity. When you subtract strikeouts and walks, Oakland ranks sixth in xwOBACON this season.
Their opponent tonight is Jose Berrios, who was once a really good starter but has declined in recent seasons. Berrios has a 4.11 ERA this season, which isn’t bad. However, Berrios has a 5.28 xERA, ranking in the seventh percentile.
Berrios has lost his ability to strike out batters, ranking in the 18th percentile in strikeout rate and 12th percentile in whiff rate. He also allows a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 17th percentile in exit velocity allowed, and 44th percentile in barrel rate allowed.
My favorite bet on this game involves backing the Athletics offense and fading Berrios. I’ll be taking Berrios over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -125, as I think Oakland stands a strong chance of scoring three or more runs on him in this matchup.
Pick: Jose Berrios Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-125)
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D.J. James's Reds vs Brewers Best Bet: Cincinnati's Lineup The Difference
By D.J. James
Carson Spiers has been a great addition to the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation.
The 26-year-old righty has a 3.59 ERA against a 3.54 xERA with an above-average batted-ball profile. He only strikes out about 20% of batters, but he walks under 5%. He doesn't get hitters to chase or hit grounders, but he's an overall solid starting pitcher.
His opponent will be the Milwaukee Brewers and Aaron Civale. Civale is an average pitcher, boasting a 5.14 ERA and 4.28 xERA. But his batted-ball profile is worse than Spiers', and he can't keep the ball on the ground (35% GB rate).
The Reds have a 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month, while the Brewers own just a 102 wRC+.
These teams are pretty comparable in the bullpen, but the Reds have a distinct edge in both starting pitching and in the lineup against a right-hander.
Look for Cincy to win this one, as they are undervalued.
Pick: Reds ML (+120)
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