With a loaded MLB slate this weekend, our Action Network staff compiled a few best bets. For Saturday, July 27, we have a moneyline pick for Reds vs Rays, as well as an over/under prediction for Mariners vs White Sox.
Take a look below and see what we have in store for you today with our two Saturday MLB Best Bets.
MLB Best Bets: Saturday Betting Predictions (7/27)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Saturday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs. Rays
By Tony Sartori
I know Tampa has started to turn things around, but this team just started to sell with the trade deadline approaching, and Cincinnati profiles as the better team in this matchup. Let's start with the Andrew Abbott-Zack Littell pitching matchup.
Abbott outranks Littell in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The bullpen advantage also clearly goes to the Reds, considering that their relief staff outranks the Rays' in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
That just leaves the hitting, which (again) is another advantage for Cincinnati. It outranks Tampa this season in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
With the stronger starting pitcher, bullpen, lineup and Tampa's recent transactions, the Reds are the team to back on Saturday at plus-money.
Pick: Reds Moneyline (+100)
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Mariners vs. White Sox
By D.J. James
Erick Fedde is one of the lone bright spots for the Chicago White Sox this year, and he has been pretty solid in July already. His Hard-Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity are above average. He has a sub-3.00 ERA against a 3.65 xERA, so he could see a little negative regression, but even still, he has been great. He does not strike out many batters, but he has an above average groundball rate and walk rate, so this helps him keep runners off the bases.
His opponent will be the Seattle Mariners and Bryan Woo. Woo has been great for Seattle, as have most of their pitchers. Woo has a 2.54 ERA and 2.50 xERA. He barely strikes anyone out, but he has an amazing 2.6% walk rate and limits hard contact.
The major issue for both teams has been hitting. Yes, Seattle did just acquire Randy Arozarena, but there are still glaring issues in this lineup. In the last month against righties, the Mariners have a 76 wRC+.
The White Sox are the only team worse at 67 wRC+, and both teams have strikeout rates above 27% with those same parameters in place.
The Mariners have depth in the bullpen and have a 3.55 xFIP in the last month, while the Sox have had some issues closing games with a 4.61 xFIP. That said, the White Sox can benefit from a starter going deep, and Fedde can do that. They have other options who can be reliable, when he leaves, too.
Bet this under from 7.5 to 7.
Pick: Under 7.5, play to 7 (-112)
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