We have a full 15-game slate scheduled in MLB for Lou Gehrig Day.
Action Network's baseball staff has compiled three MLB best bets for the Sunday docket, featuring a moneyline pick for Diamondbacks vs Mets, a player prop for Rangers vs Marlins, and an over/under prediction for Cardinals vs. Phillies.
Read below for our MLB best bets for Sunday, June 2.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Prop Picks & Predictions for Sunday (6/2)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 1:40 p.m. | |
  | 1:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
Brandon Pfaadt is a super-talented pitcher who has just not gotten the results yet. He burst onto the scene during the Diamondbacks postseason run last season when he shut out the Dodgers and Phillies in back-to-back starts.
Everybody was expecting a breakout season for Pfaadt in his sophomore year but he has pitched to a 4.16 ERA and struggled with a few starts early in the season. Looking under the hood, Pfaadt has a 2.86 xERA and should be due for positive regression.
The biggest area Pfaadt has struggled is with inconsistent swing-and-miss stuff. In his last four starts he had an outing with nine strikeouts and a start with zero over six innings. He has excellent command and doesn’t walk many batters, but he needs to continue using his sweeper to generate punchouts.
Jose Quintana is in the back-half of his career for the Mets and has struggled to a 5.06 ERA. His 5.08 xERA is right in line with the results and there is really nothing positive you could point to in Quintana’s profile. He ranks in the bottom 15% of the league in xERA, xBA, Whiff%, K%, and HardHit%.
Behind Quintana is a Mets’ bullpen that has posted a 5.46 ERA in the last 30 days. This unit cannot find the strike zone right now. They have a 5.17 BB/9 rate and have blown seven saves in the last month. In the last two weeks, their bullpen ERA is 6.49.
Both offenses have hovered around league average for the majority of the season but Diamondbacks at least have Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Joc Pederson having solid seasons. The Mets only have one player hitting over .275 or with an OPS over .800.
Arizona will be in their much better splits on Sunday against a left-handed pitcher. The Snakes rank sixth in the league in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties this season. Expect them to jump on Quintana early here. The Arizona roster has hit .344 with a .374 xwOBA in their careers against Quintana. Give me the Snakes on Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-112)
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Rangers vs. Marlins
By Cody Goggin
Andrew Heaney will take the mound today for the Rangers. To this point in the season he is having a pretty typical year by his standards, with a 4.47 ERA that is matched by his 4.42 xERA.
Outside of his season with the Dodgers, Heaney has not been an extraordinarily high strikeout pitcher. Last season his K% was in the 51st percentile while this season it has dipped to the 38th percentile. His mark of an 80 Stuff+ this year is quite the drop from his 103 last season.
Part of the reason for this seeming step back is his fastball velocity. He is now down to 91.6 as his average fastball velocity, which ranks in just the 12th percentile. By Stuff+, Heaney ranks 99th out of 106 starting pitchers with 50+ IP on the season.
His batted ball metrics aren’t great either, as he ranks in the 40th percentile in barrel rate, 17th percentile in hard hit rate, and 8th percentile in exit velocity.
Today he’ll take on the Marlins, who despite having an overall bad offense, have not been striking out much this season. Miami has the 9th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball both overall and against left-handed pitching.
While I don’t know if the Marlins will have enough firepower to chase him from this game early, they also typically put the ball in play enough where I don’t think Heaney will be able to exceed his strikeout total.
Heaney to go under 4.5 strikeouts is priced at +112. I project him for 4.29 strikeouts on the day with a median outcome of four strikeouts, so while this line is close to my projection, the plus money price is attractive compared to where my model would set the line.
Pick: Andrew Heaney Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)
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Cardinals vs. Phillies
I fully expect fireworks on Sunday Night Baseball.
Taijuan Walker started the season on the IL and hasn’t looked like the same pitcher. His fastball velo is down a tick year over year (92), and he’s lost heat on his cutter, sinker and splitter.
As a result, he’s seen a monster decrease in his advanced pitching model metrics (87 Stuff+, 96 Location+), missing bats at a career-worst rate (6.5% swinging strike rate). Thus, he’s forced to nibble around the edges more, where he’s walked eight batters across his past 14 innings.
His batted-ball profile looks similarly poor.
Walker can’t miss bats or force weak contact, a brutal combination against a St. Louis offense trending up against right-handed pitching. The Cardinals are MLB’s third-best offense against the side over the past month (125 wRC+).
Lance Lynn is an interesting case study, and a full breakdown of his late-stage career profile needs to be done in a different article. But the 37-year-old’s arm might be toast (83 Stuff+), he’s walking more batters than he has in a half-decade (9% walk rate), and he’s overperforming (3.45 ERA, 4.13 xERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.30 xFIP).
He should struggle against the Phillies, given everybody struggles against their second-ranked offense (116 wRC+). Lynn has battled the Phils twice since the beginning of last season, striking out 13 but walking seven across 10 innings and allowing seven runs in the process.
These are two relatively solid bullpens, but I wouldn’t expect top-notch results given the Cardinals relievers are slumping (4.46 ERA, 4.41 SIERA, 6% K-BB over the past two weeks) and the Phillies are a tad overextended (every reliever has thrown at least 10 pitches in the past two days).
These are also two bottom-10 defenses – St. Louis ranks 20th in DRS (-7), while Philadelphia ranks 26th (-30) – playing in an elevated run environment with breezes out toward right field, creating in a +8% home run factor per BallParkPal's model.
Pick: Over 9 (-110)
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