MLB Playoffs Best Bets Thursday | Odds, Picks, Predictions Today for Astros vs Rangers ALCS Game 4 (October 19)
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Jankowski and Jose Altuve
The MLB playoffs slate for Thursday, October 19, includes Game 4 between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers.
Our MLB analysts have dug through the odds and found picks for both games, including props and moneyline predictions.
Here are our best bets for Astros-Rangers Game 4.
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MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:07 p.m. | |
| 5:07 p.m. | |
  | 8:03 p.m. | |
| 8:03 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
By D.J. James
Bryce Harper has always had a good eye, but he is on another level right now. Since August 1, he has a .499 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. He's struck out 35 times and walked a whopping 29 times.
In the playoffs alone, he has nine walks (in eight games) against six strikeouts.
Brandon Pfaadt typically does not walk batters often. Even with his struggles before being recalled from Triple-A in July, he has a sub-7% walk rate on the season. That said, the D'backs have a 10.8% walk rate in relief, so if Harper does not walk against Pfaadt, it can happen against one of the bullpen arms.
Either way, there is always the prospect of the Snakes’ pitchers avoiding Harper. Take Harper’s over 0.5 walks to -140.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (-115)
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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt has a very interesting profile as a starting pitcher. He had a horrible first half of the season with an xFIP well above five, got sent down to the minors, started five games, and got called back up to get shelled on June 29 for six runs in just two innings. He got sent down again, made two starts in the minors, and then got called up once again to the majors.
Ever since he got called back up on July 22, he's been awesome. In those 15 starts, he's put up solid numbers: 3.90 xFIP, 9.65 K/9 rate and 2.1 BB/9 rate. He got into trouble against Milwaukee and was pulled early, but that is just the second time in those 15 starts that he failed to complete the fourth inning.
What's even more impressive about Pfaadt is the control he has over his entire arsenal. Not only is a very low 2.10 BB/9 rate an indicator of that, but he also has a 106 Location+ rating since July 22 along with a 103 Stuff+ rating. That means his Pitching+ is sitting 107, which is top 20 in baseball over that same time frame.
The Phillies are incredibly hot right now and will not stop hitting, but something important to note is even though Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly both gave up 4+ runs, Torey Lovullo still let them pitch past the fourth inning.
I know Pfaadt is a rookie, but given his performances since being called up, I highly doubt that Arizona is going to want to exhaust its entire bullpen in the first of potentially three straight games.
So, I think 11.5 pitching outs is a tad low.
Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
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Astros vs. Rangers
Andrew Heaney made one start in the 2023 playoffs, on the road in Game 1 against the Orioles in the ALDS. He pitched quite well with 3 2/3 innings completed (11 outs), two hits and one earned run allowed.
Despite his pitching well, the Rangers stuck to their plan and didn't let him face more than 14 batters. When you consider how the Astros are likely to set up their lineup for Game 4, it's likely Heaney has a pretty hard cap of 14 batters once again.
If Yordan Alvarez bats third and Kyle Tucker is fifth, it's reasonable to assume that Bruce Bochy will let Heaney go once through the order. And if things go well, he'll see Alvarez and Tucker a second time.
If he's really efficient, he'll go over this number by recording 12 outs in 14 batters. But if the top of the fourth comes around and there are righties waiting to bat for Houston with runners on base beyond Tucker, I expect Bochy to flip the lineup and turn to either a righty high-leverage reliever or use piggyback partner Dane Dunning there.
The Astros' lineup has crushed left-handed pitching for multiple years now because their lefties are good at facing same-handed pitching and the top righties have mashed. Heaney has good stuff, but his lingering home run problem makes him a high risk to go deep here.
I'd bet Heaney under 11.5 outs at anything plus money.
Pick: Andrew Heaney Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (+115)
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Astros vs. Rangers
By Kenny Ducey
It's not as if the Astros aren't hitting a ton of fly balls — they have also had an excellent ground out-to-air out ratio of 0.68 throughout the playoffs — they simply haven't packed as big of a punch as the Rangers have. They've hit four fewer home runs in one fewer game than Texas, and they've also been off their game with a minuscule 6.9% walk rate through seven contests.
This is going to be a home run-hitting contest, and I'm going to back the Rangers here especially when you consider the matchup.
Andrew Heaney has done a great job over the last few months of getting the ball to come back on the ground, and that translated very well in his start against the Orioles in Game 1 of the ALDS when he spun 3 2/3 innings of one-run ball. In that start, he surrendered only a single and a double, rolling up six of his 14 batted outs on the ground.
Heaney's also been effective in a rather large sampling of appearances against Houston's offense. While it's .272 lifetime off of Heaney, the lefty owns a better .241 xBA and solid .443 xSLG in those matchups.
The Rangers were fifth in home runs per plate appearance this season and one of the best around in converting fly balls to home runs. Jose Urquidy is simply not a good pitcher, and I expect him to allow more home runs than Heaney, which should cost the Astros this game.
Even if we only see these two starters for a combined six innings, the margin should be enough for the Rangers to hang on. Their bullpen has actually been better than Houston's during the postseason and they should have a ground-ball specialist in Dane Dunning ready to go behind Heaney.
Pick: Rangers ML (-114)
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