After a small eight-game slate on Monday, MLB is back with a full 15-game schedule on Tuesday. That means there are plenty of bets to analyze.
Our MLB writers came through with five MLB best bets for Tuesday, including picks for Dodgers vs Pirates, Royals vs Guardians, Twins vs Yankees and Cardinals vs. Astros.
Read on for all five MLB best bets for Tuesday, June 4 — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more MLB picks and betting coverage.
MLB Best Bets: 5 Prop Picks & Predictions for Tuesday (6/4)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 8:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dodgers vs. Pirates
By John Feltman
We've got a terrific pitching matchup in the Steel City on Tuesday night between Tyler Glasnow and Jared Jones. Both of these pitchers are capable of mowing down most lineups on any given day, and they'll have the opportunity to showcase that tonight.
Glasnow is striking out over 11.5 batters per nine innings while generating a 44% ground-ball rate. His 3.04 ERA is not a true measurement of how he's performed thus far, as his xERA sits under 2.50.
The Pirates are a bottom-three team in strikeouts per game, so I don't expect much contact in the early portion of the ballgame. Glasnow allowed two earned runs over seven innings pitched during last week's outing against the Mets, and he's set up for another terrific outing here.
Jones, meanwhile, roughed up a bit over the last couple of starts. He didn't escape the fifth inning last outing and allowed five earned runs against the Tigers.
Jones enters the matchup with a 3.55 ERA, but it really should be closer to a flat 3.00. He ranks in the 80th percentile among all MLB pitchers in average velocity (top three among starters), whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate.
It will be the first time the Dodgers face Jones, which typically results in a feeling-out period for most hitters. As elite as the Dodgers offense is, I really like the spot for Jones to bounce back and make a statement against a terrific lineup.
I love the F5 under here, and I don't mind paying a little juice in the process.
Pick: F5 Under 4 (-125)
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Royals vs. Guardians
Over 8 (-120)
By John Feltman
The Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Guardians begin a three-game set at Progressive Field on Tuesday evening with a couple of hurlers who are due for negative regression moving forward.
Seth Lugo enters the matchup with an impressive 1.74 ERA but an xFIP of 3.84. Lugo's metrics are mostly below the 50th percentile, according to Statcast.
Lugo ranks below the 50th percentile in the following metrics:
- Whiff Rate
- K Rate
- Chase Rate
- Fastball Velocity
- Ground-ball Rate
Lugo is a respectable starter, but he has no business having an ERA under 2.00.
Meanwhile, Triston McKenzie has flirted with trouble all season long and has yet to establish any sort of consistency. He enters the start with a 3.77 ERA but an xFIP over 5.00.
McKenzie's fastball velocity is down from last season, which many suspect could be due to an underlying injury. He struck out nine Rockies in his last start but was tagged for two home runs over five innings.
The current Royals hitters have awful numbers against McKenzie lifetime, entering the matchup 6-for-47. But I wouldn't put too much stock into that, as that was against a much healthier and sharper version of McKenzie.
McKenzie is walking five batters per nine and is a ticking timebomb moving forward. I expect the Royals to take full advantage of his current state and make him pay.
Pick: Over 8 (-120)
Triston McKenzie Under 4.5 Ks
By Tony Sartori
Cleveland hands the ball to right-hander Triston McKenzie, who should be a good fade candidate on Tuesday. Through 11 starts this season, McKenzie is 2-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse, considering that he ranks in the 24th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
Specifically, we're going to fade McKenzie in the strikeout department, as he ranks in the 14th percentile in chase rate, 34th percentile in whiff rate and 48th percentile in strikeout rate.
These woes are likely to continue against Kansas City, a team he's 1-2 against over the past five meetings with a 4.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. McKenzie recorded four or fewer strikeouts in four of those five outings.
Lastly, the Royals rank first in the league this season in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
Pick: Triston McKenzie Under 4.5 Ks
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Twins vs. Yankees
By D.J. James
The New York Yankees have a potent lineup with both Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. This is a given, but overall, they have a 145 wRC+ with a sub-20% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in the last month against righties.
The top of the Yankees' lineup can hammer the ball. Overall, the Yanks have a 42.2% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 90 MPH on the year.
Their opponent will be Bailey Ober and the Minnesota Twins.
Ober struggles to keep the ball on the ground this year, as his ground-ball rate ranks in the fourth percentile. He has given up five-plus runs in two starts over the last month. These starts don't bode well against potentially the best lineup in baseball — or at least two of the best hitters in baseball.
Minnesota’s relief staff has been underwhelming, so if Ober can't make it deep into this game, the Twins will be backed into a corner.
The Twins’ relievers are striking out only 19.1% of hitters with a walk rate of almost 10%. Their BABIP is only .285, so it's not like the Minnesota relief staff has been unlucky, either.
The Yankees will hammer Ober and most relievers they should see in this game. Plus, it helps that this game is at home with the short porch in right field, too.
Take their team total over 4.5, and play it to 5.5.
Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (Play to 5.5)
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Cardinals vs. Astros
By Cody Goggin
Spencer Arrighetti will take the mound against the Cardinals in Houston tonight.
The rookie comes into his 10th start of the season with a 5.98 ERA and 4.29 xERA in 43 2/3 innings. He has struck out 51 batters across those innings, but his strikeout rate sits in the 69th percentile.
Arrighetti has not shown to have elite stuff to this point. He ranks 126th in Stuff+ out of 133 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this season. He's also 105th in Location+ and has a 17th-percentile walk rate.
Hard contact has hurt Arrighetti this season, as he sits 47th percentile in hard-hit rate and 44th percentile in exit velocity with a 38th-percentile xBA and 32nd-percentile xERA.
Today, he’ll be taking on the Cardinals, who are right around league average (15th) in strikeout rate and whiff rate. They're 19th in wRC+ and 21st in wOBA but 14th in xwOBA.
This isn’t a great lineup, but it can put the ball in play and has been hitting lately, ranking fourth in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA over the last 30 days.
Arrighetti has had well below-average stuff to begin his Major League career. While I’d expect his results to more closely mirror his xERA going forward, his raw strikeout numbers are likely inflated at the moment as well.
My model projects Arrighetti for 4.14 strikeouts today with a median outcome of 4 — well below his current total of 5.5. At +120 to the under, this represents a strong value and is my favorite strikeout prop of the day.
Pick: Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 Ks
