MLB Best Bets | Fourth of July MLB Predictions
(Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) Pictured: Charlie Morton
Is there a better way to celebrate the Fourth of July than by barbecuing and watching MLB? Well, we can't think of one — expect for, of course, potentially making some money while watching that baseball.
And for that, our MLB betting experts have you covered. There is baseball on all day, starting at 11:05 a.m. ET, and we have compiled some MLB best bets to help make your Fourth of July even more enjoyable.
Be sure to read our Fourth of July MLB predictions below.
MLB Best Bets | Fourth of July MLB Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting on July 4. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:20 p.m. | ||
| 12:35 p.m. | ||
| 1:05 p.m. | ||
| 1:07 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cardinals vs. Pirates
By William Boor
Yes, the Cardinals are barely over .500 and have a negative run differential, but they've been playing some great baseball as of late. In fact, over the past two months, the Cardinals have been among the best teams in the league. St. Louis was just 16-24 on Mother's Day, but has gone 28-16 (.636) since. And that's despite subpar seasons from Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.
The Cardinals are flying a bit under the radar because the NL wild-card race is so jumbled, but they could continue to surge in the second half.
However, this bet is just about Sunday's game, not the Cardinals long-term outlook.
Not only is St. Louis playing well, but is also has the pitching edge in this matchup. Martin Perez gets the start for the Pirates and his 6.05 xERA against a 5.28 ERA suggests more regression is coming. Perez gave up six runs over four innings in his most recent start and ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals will hand the ball to Andre Pallante. The 25-year-old right-hander isn't elite, but his 4.50 ERA and 3.82 xERA certainly look better than the numbers of his counterpart. Additionally, Pallante has given up one earned run or fewer in three of his past four starts, a sign that things are starting to click.
Pallante also ranks in the 93rd percentile or better when it comes to average exit velocity, barrel rate and ground-ball percentage.
These offenses are about even as St. Louis averages 3.99 runs per game compared to Pittsburgh's 4.01, but the pitching edge and recent hot streak has me backing the Cardinals on the Fourth of July.
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Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-120) | Play to -130
Reds vs. Yankees
By Sean Treppedi
Alas, a healthy Frankie Montas takes the mound at Yankee Stadium — just not in pinstripes.
Nearly two years after being acquired by the Yankees at the trade deadline, Montas is working back up to his potential with steadily rising velocity. However, his numbers aren’t quite there yet.
Montas' primary pitch has always been his four-seam fastball, which saw its greatest success in 2022, when he was last fully healthy.
That was also the year Montas gained more confidence in his splitter. He began defaulting to it as his secondary pitch and hitters hit just .177 against it, according to Statcast. But his splitter’s velocity is also down and he’s failed to strikeout batters with it by a decrease of over 7%.
At the turn of the decade, Montas’ strikeout volume hit its prime. He eclipsed 10 strikeouts per nine innings in both 2020 and '21, before regressing to the 7.2 he owns in 15 starts this season — a rate that’s inflated via two seven-plus strikeout outings versus the weaker likes of Colorado and Arizona.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are the most frugal-swinging lineup in baseball and should be primed to put balls in play more often than not.
So, I'm fading Montas and betting him to go Under 4.5 strikeouts..
Pick: Frankie Montas Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Astros vs. Blue Jays
By Kenny Ducey
Framber Valdez just isn’t getting ground balls like he used to.
Yes, Valdez has brought his rate of contact on the ground back up this season after a steady three-year decline, but one thing he’s done for a second straight year is serve up hard-hit balls at a near-50% clip.
That has led to far too many probable hits with a .259 Expected Batting Average against him through 85 1/3 innings, and now that he’s not even striking batters out at the league average, these concerns are becoming much more glaring.
The Blue Jays may temporarily be without Justin Turner and have struggled all season, but they do rank fourth in wRC+ over the past week with a stellar .205 Isolated Power. They’ve done a bunch of damage on balls in play, but have been held back by a 25.3% strikeout rate. So, against a pitcher who won’t miss many bats, the runs should come.
That doesn’t absolve Chris Bassitt from hate here, either. He’s pitched around middling strikeout numbers to a similarly poor .256 xBA and will encounter a Houston offense that's nearly as hot with the seventh-best wRC+ in the past seven days.
With two pitchers I love fading squaring off, the total should be higher.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) | Play to 8.5 (-120)
Giants vs. Braves
By D.J. James
Charlie Morton, despite being 40-years-old, looks like a well-oiled machine on the hill. His ERA is 3.89 and his xERA is a touch over 4.00, but with the injuries piling up for the Atlanta Braves, a consistent face on the bump every five days pays dividends. His ground-ball rate is above average, as is his strikeout rate. At times he has struggled with hard contact and walks, but he has been solid overall.
His opponent will be Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants. Webb has a 3.13 ERA against a 4.15 xERA. He allows a ton of hard contact and doesn't walk many batters. That said, his ground-ball and chase rates are well above average.
The Braves haven't hit like they did a season ago. They have a 79 wRC+ off of righties in the past month, which is below both the White Sox and A's.
The Giants have been a bit better with a 100 wRC+ against righties over the past month. They may fare better against Morton, but neither lineup is crushing righties at the moment.
Additionally, both bullpens rank in the top six in xFIP in the past month.
This is shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel, so this total looks too high. Take the under from 8.5 down to 7.5.
Pick: Under 8.5 | Play to 7.5
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