Today’s MLB Best Bets: Picks for Brewers vs Yankees, Rockies vs Giants, More (Sep. 8)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon
Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Friday gets another jam-packed baseball weekend started with a full slate of games and postseason implications across the board.
Our analysts have identified four games in particular showing betting value tonight, including Brewers vs. Yankees and Rockies vs. Giants.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, Sep. 8th.
MLB Best Bets · Friday, Sep. 8
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:20 p.m. | |
  | 10:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brewers vs. Yankees
I’ll be buying the Yankees for the remainder of the season.
The Yankees needed depth, speed and balance in the lineup. The call-up of Jasson Dominguez has given them exactly that. He’s a switch-hitter who crushes right-handed pitching (something the lineup desperately needed) and is surprisingly speedy for his short-and-stocky frame.
Dominguez is 7-for-24 with three home runs since being called up, and the Yankees are 5-1.
His presence may have injected some life into the lineup. Although, I think the more likely explanation is that the Yankees are finally seeing the positive regression they’ve been owed all season (their .263 BABIP is still the worst in baseball).
DJ LeMahieu is hitting again. Gleyber Torres is crushing the baseball. Even Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Volpe have been plus bats over the past month. And, of course, it’s nice to have a healthy Aaron Judge in the middle of the lineup.
And don’t look now, but New York starting pitcher Luis Severino has quietly put together a few quality starts lately.
He struggled against the Astros, but the damage came from two homers. It’s the ‘Stros, what are you gonna do?
The really interesting thing about Severino is that his velocity is back up. His average fastball velocity was 97.7 mph in his last start, and the rest of his pitches are also up a few ticks.
I think Severino is undervalued after becoming the league’s laughingstock. Same with the rest of the Bronx Bombers.
Severino and the Yanks battle the Brewers, who haven’t been hitting right-handed pitching. The Crew checks in with the fifth-lowest wRC+ against the side over the past month.
They’ll have to battle an undervalued righty for half the game and a nasty Yankees bullpen for the other half – not a great matchup.
Finally, I’m fine with fading Milwaukee starting pitcher Collin Rea. He checks in with a 6.88 ERA over his past six starts.
I’m buying the Yankees tonight at -130 or better and will be betting them more often through September.
Pick: Yankees ML (-108)
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Orioles vs. Red Sox
By D.J. James
The Boston Red Sox look to keep their long-shot odds at a playoff spot alive by overcoming the Baltimore Orioles this weekend. On Friday, the Red Sox throw Tanner Houck while the Orioles start Kyle Bradish.
Houck should have some positive regression coming his way, so the difference between these two starters is not a massive gap. He has a 5.07 ERA against a 4.18 xERA with an average exit velocity allowed of 90 mph and a hard-hit rate of 43.2%.
He typically holds an edge over hitters by forcing grounders, in which his percentage is 53.2%. He has an 8.2% walk rate and 21.3% strikeout rate.
Bradish has a 3.03 ERA against a 3.92 xERA. His average exit velocity allowed is 90 mph with a hard-hit rate of 42.3%. His strikeout rate is at 24% and he has a 6.9% walk rate. His ground-ball rate is a better-than-average 48.6%.
The Red Sox against right-handed pitching have a 113 wRC+ and a .797 OPS in the last two weeks. The O’s have a 127 wRC+ and a .822 OPS.
In relief, the Red Sox have a 5.06 xFIP in the last two weeks. Baltimore has a 4.11 xFIP.
Since Houck has a tendency to throw fewer than four innings at times, while Bradish can go six or seven, the starting pitching edge lies with the Orioles, and they should be bigger favorites.
Take the Orioles to -135.
Pick: Orioles ML (-120)
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Pirates vs. Braves
Pittsburgh has a massive lineup disadvantage in this game, but the Pirates better starting pitcher and current bullpen situation has them undervalued in Friday night's game.
Mitch Keller struggled through a rough patch in July when his command briefly wavered, but the Pirates right-hander has 26 strikeouts and five walks in his last 20 innings across three starts.
The market is well aware of Keller's true talent at this point in his career and season, but it's overvaluing Bryce Elder.
Elder had a stellar first half of the season while his ground-ball rates remained north of 50% and touched as high as 60% on the seven-game rolling chart.
Since July, his ground-ball rate has been in steady decline. Now, it's at a season-low 41%. Combine that with his below-average strikeout rate and walk rates and you have a pitcher primed to blow up at any time.
There's a chance Austin Riley sits again for Atlanta, and they used two of their top relievers heavily (A.J. Minter and Raisel Iglesias) in last night's victory against St. Louis, while the Pirates had the day off.
At +175 or better, I'm betting Pittsburgh as a road underdog.
Pick: Pirates ML (+180)
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Rockies vs. Giants
By Kevin Rogers
The Giants return home after a dreadful road trip that ended with six consecutive losses to the Padres and Cubs.
San Francisco hosts Colorado for a weekend set and is 0-6 in its last six games in the first five innings, including getting shut out four times.
Ty Blach takes the mound for the Rockies, and he owns a 5-3 record in the first five innings in eight starts. Three of those wins came as a substantial road underdog against the Dodgers, Orioles and Marlins, and he allowed a total of one run in the first five of those games.
Giants southpaw Kyle Harrison struck out 11 batters in his home debut against the Reds, but was lit up for four home runs in a 6-1 loss to San Diego his last time out.
The Rockies are riding a 5-2 mark in their last seven road games in the first five innings, and they blew a 4-0 lead at Arizona on Wednesday in a 12-5 defeat.
San Francisco’s playoff hopes are fading by the day, although it faces Colorado seven times and Cleveland three times in the next 10 games.
Let’s take the Rockies at +0.5 in the first five innings at FanDuel at +106 and play that number to +100.
Pick: Rockies F5 RL +0.5 (+116)
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