MLB Odds, Best Bets: 4 Wednesday Picks for Pirates vs. Cubs, Astros vs. Mets, More

Not only are there 15 MLB games on Wednesday, June 21, but they get started early.

There are eight afternoon games, starting with Orioles vs. Rays and Blue Jays vs. Marlins at 12:10 p.m. ET. With so much afternoon action, we've decided to split up our best bets. This file covers the best bets for the afternoon games, while another story will provide best bets from the evening slate.

The games get started early today, so let's not waste any time and dig right into the MLB best bets for Wednesday, June 21.

Wednesday Afternoon MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time	Pick
	12:10 p.m. ET	Under 8.5 (-115)
	12:10 p.m. ET	Blue Jays Over 3.5 Runs (-120)
	12:35 p.m. ET	Cubs Moneyline (-110)
	2:10 p.m. ET	Astros Moneyline (-155)
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Orioles vs. Rays

Wednesday, June 21 12:10 p.m. ET MLB Network

Under 8.5 (-115)

By Mike Ianniello

It has been a bit of a breakout campaign for Tyler Wells in his third season in the big leagues. After making 44 appearances out of the bullpen in 2021, he transitioned to the starting rotation in 2022 and made 23 starts while posting a 4.25 ERA.

Through 14 games this season, Wells is 6-2 and has a 3.20 ERA. He doesn’t have elite stuff, but has been consistent and has thrown at least five innings in each outing. Wells has held opponents to two or fewer runs in nine of his 14 games.

A big reason for this year’s improvement is Wells raising his strikeout rate from 18% to 26.1%. He also added a slider to his arsenal and found a better pitch mix with his slider, changeup and cutter.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s No. 1 prospect, Taj Bradley, will start for the Rays. After making his MLB debut on April 12, he has been up and down from the minors, but has made nine starts in the majors.

The results have been mixed. Bradley owns a 4.19 ERA, but 3.35 xERA. He has shown elite strikeout stuff and fanned 11 over 4 1/3 innings in his most recent start, albeit against a weak Oakland team.

Bradley throws a fastball that can touch 98 mph, as well as a cutter, curveball and changeup. He has struggled with walks a bit recently, but has previously shown above-average command. Allowing hard contact has been a problem for Bradley, but if he can continue missing bats at an elite rate, he should be fine.

As terrifying as it is to bet an under between these offenses, I really like the upside of these starting pitchers. Wells has been solid in his past four starts and consistently works deep into games. He has great command and above average strikeout stuff.

After striking out 31 batters in his first seven starts this year, he has punched out 51 in his past seven.

I also think we are going to see Bradley start performing to the level of a No. 1 prospect soon. His 4.19 ERA and .303 wOBA are much higher than his 3.35 xERA and .288 xwOBA. He also ranks in the top 15% of the league in xERA and xwOBA.

Bradley has elite strikeout stuff. His 13.19 K/9 rate ranks second in the league among starting pitchers, trailing only Spencer Strider. He has struck out over 34% of the batters h’s faced and is coming off an 11 strikeout performance.

Baltimore’s offense is much better against left-handed pitchers and ranks 13th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitchers, like Bradley. This will likely be a sweat until the very end, but I’ll back the young arms and the under.

Pick: Under 8.5

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Blue Jays vs. Marlins

Wednesday, June 21 12:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV

Blue Jays Over 3.5 Runs (-120)

By D.J. James

Kevin Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for a few years now. On Wednesday, he'll be facing the Miami Marlins, who are in second place in the National League East.

Sandy Alcántara will pitch for the Marlins and although he won the Cy Young Award last season, he hardly looks like the same pitcher this year. He's been inconsistent all year and it's hard to trust him against an offense as potent as Toronto's.

Since both teams have had similar results against right-handed pitching, it's hard to not back the Blue Jays' bats in this matchup.

The Blue Jays own a 105 wRC+ in June off of righties. Brandon Belt and Alejandro Kirk are on the Injured List, but Toronto still has six active hitters with a xwOBA above .330 this season. That's enough to attack Alcántara.

Alcántara has a 4.97 ERA against a 4.23 xERA, so he will get better. However, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate have increased since last season. His strikeout rate is below 20% and his walk rate increased from 5.6% last season to 7.3% this year. In June, he's allowed five earned runs in two of three starts — and those were against the Oakland A’s and Washington Nationals.

Miami does have a 3.29 xFIP and its bullpen compares favorable to Toronto's. However, if Alcántara has some trouble, Miami's bullpen may need to get more outs than normal in this contest.

Gausman is a better pitcher than Alcántara this season, though the odds seems like they're still factoring in the 2022 version of Miami's right-hander. Given the Blue Jays propensity to hammer righties, taking their team total over is the correct bet in this game. Betting their moneyline isn't necessarily a bad idea, either. Take Toronto’s team total from 3.5 (-120), and play it to 4.5 (-120).

Pick: Blue Jays Over 3.5 Runs

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Cubs vs. Pirates

Wednesday, June 21 12:35 p.m. ET MLB Network

Cubs Moneyline (-110)

By Tanner McGrath

The Cubs have dominated the Pirates over the past year or so, winning 10 of the past 11 meetings, including the first two of this series by a combined score of 12-0.

At first glance, Wednesday’s line seems fair — the Cubs should be slight favorites.

But I actually think the Cubs have a bunch of small advantages that will add up to a much bigger advantage.

Let’s go through said advantages.

For starters, the Cubs have a slightly better lineup.

The Pirates are thin without Oneil Cruz and their starting infield can't hit.

Meanwhile, six of the Cubs’ top-nine hitters (by plate appearances) have an above-average OPS. That doesn’t even include Christopher Morel’s breakout.

I’d also keep a very close eye on Seiya Suzuki. He’s been crushing the ball, but also getting unlucky. I expect a big month from him sooner or later.

The Cubs also have a slightly better bullpen, an advantage only exaggerated by the injury to Pittsburgh's set-up man, Colin Holderman.

The Cubs are slightly better defensively, especially on the infield, where Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ lead the second-best defensive infield by Outs Above Average.

I’d also say the Cubs boast the better rotation, and I give them the starting pitching advantage in this matchup.

I’m not excited about either Kyle Hendricks or Rich Hill, but I’d take Hendricks over Hill on any given start. Hendricks has the lower barrel rate, xwOBA and walk rate, alongside a (much) higher ground-ball rate.

Also, Hill puts the Cubs in their better split. Chicago is much better against lefties as the Cubs, on most nights, stack seven or eight right-handed hitter in their lineups.

Piece all the edges together and I think we’re getting the Cubs cheap on Wednesday. Look for Chicago to complete the sweep and pick up its seventh straight victory over its division rival.

P.S. The wind is blowing in, so I think the under is probably good, too.

Pick: Cubs Moneyline

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Mets vs. Astros

Wednesday, June 21 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV

Astros Moneyline (-155)

By Collin Whitchurch

Tylor Megill is coming off an impressive performance — six innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts against the Cardinals — but he's still someone I'm going to look to fade whenever the opportunity arises.

Cristian Javier is a bit of a Helter Skelter pitcher, but when he's on, he's among the league's elite arms. His strikeout rate is down this season, but not too quite as alarming a degree as his raw K/9 might indicate. His swinging strike rate is only down slightly, and when he allows contact, it's not any harder on average than we saw a season ago. He's also walking significantly fewer batters than a year ago.

Even with an ERA far lower than his expected indicators, I remain a Javier believer, and am confident he'll even things out as the season progresses. I can't say the same about Megill, who is even worse than his 4.83 ERA and walking an absurd amount of hitters. That won't fly against Houston, even if its offense isn't as lethal as it's been in past seasons.

Houston's bullpen will be well-rested after Framber Valdez threw eight innings on Tuesday night, so I'm willing to ride with the Astros over the full game here. The starting pitching edge is stark.

The Astros opened as modest favorites and the line has continued to climb in their direction. It's around -155 as of this writing, but I'd confidently lay that to -165.

Pick: Astros Moneyline

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