Today's MLB slate features 15 games, which means there is plenty of betting value to be found on Friday, September 22.
There are two games in particular that our analysts are focused on: Mets vs. Phillies and White Sox vs. Red Sox
Here are today's MLB best bets and predictions.
MLB Best Bets for Friday, September 22
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mets vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
Tylor Megill throws for the New York Mets in another meaningless game for them against Taijuan Walker and the Philadelphia Phillies. Both of these starters have been on the weaker end. Walker has been a serviceable back-end option in the rotation, but otherwise, neither may fare well, since both lineups have hit right-handers hard lately.
Megill has a 4.94 ERA this season with a 6.29 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 9.4%, his Average Exit Velocity is 90.1 MPH, and his Hard Hit Rate is 42.8%. His strikeout rate is also only 17.8% against a 10.7% walk rate. In the second half, he carries a 4.54 ERA over 41 2/3 innings pitched.
Walker has a 4.40 ERA against a 4.50 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 6.7%. His Average Exit Velocity is 89 MPH, and his Hard Hit Rate is 40.8%. His strikeout rate is 19.3% against a 9.7% walk rate. These numbers are slightly better than Megill’s, but he has the same issue with not missing bats and also putting runners on for free.
This month the Mets have a 7.6% walk rate, 22.5% strikeout rate, .792 OPS, and 117 wRC+ off of righties.
The Philes have a 10.3% walk rate, 25% strikeout rate, .776 OPS, and 108 wRC+.
New York has a 4.83 xFIP in relief, while Philly has a 4.30 xFIP. With two starters who struggle to throw strikes consistently, these bullpens will likely be taxed by the game’s end. Take the over in this one to 9.5 (-125).
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Mets vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Tylor Megill takes the mound for the New York Mets and should be a good fade candidate against the Philadelphia Phillies.
It's been yet another tough campaign for Megill, who owns a 4.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through 23 starts. His underlying metrics suggest positive regression is unlikely as the right-hander ranks in the 25th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
Those poor metrics are likely to be problematic against a Philadelphia lineup that ranks in the Top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs. However, the Phillies could have their own pitching issues with right-hander Taijuan Walker getting the nod.
Through 29 starts, Walker possesses a 4.40 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, the right-hander possesses a 7.27 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his past three outings.
His analytics are also poor as Walker ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit%. Yeah, the Mets' hitting is suspect, but that is why we are catching this total at nine.
There have now been nine or more total runs scored in 10 of Philadelphia's past 13 games.
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White Sox vs. Red Sox
By Kevin Rogers
The White Sox were embarrassed by the Nationals on Wednesday in a 13-3 defeat as Chicago dropped two of three at Washington.
Boston also lost its last game by 10 runs, blowing an early 4-0 lead in a 15-5 setback at Texas to fall to 2-8 in their last 10 contests overall.
The Red Sox send out Chris Sale to the mound to face his former team as the southpaw allowed two hits and one run in six innings while striking out 10 batters against Toronto his last time out.
However, Sale has struggled at Fenway Park recently by giving up 10 runs in his last 8.2 innings of work against the Orioles and Astros, both as a home favorite.
Touki Toussaint rebounded from a horrible outing against Kansas City in which he lasted one inning and allowed eight runs on September 12 to beat Minnesota as a hefty home underdog his last time out.
The Chicago right-hander gave up three hits in five innings while striking out eight batters as the Sox seek consecutive wins for the first time this season in Toussaint’s starts.
The Red Sox have stumbled to a 4-9-3 mark in the first five innings of their last 16 games as only one of those wins came as a favorite of -130 or higher.
Both teams are going nowhere but Sale is priced too high off a solid outing his last time out.
Let’s back Chicago at +0.5 in the first five innings at +114 and play that to +110.
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