July kicks off with a loaded, 15-game MLB slate and there are numerous betting opportunities on Saturday. Our MLB betting experts have scoured the MLB odds and come up with the MLB best bets for Saturday, July 1.
Our experts are targeting an over, under and a moneyline in Padres vs Reds, Red Sox vs. Blue Jays and Brewers vs. Pirates.
So, let's get right to the picks. The MLB best bets for Saturday, July 1 are below.
Saturday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Padres vs. Reds
Saturday, July 1 1:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 11 (-110)  |
By D.J. James
The Padres visit the Reds on Saturday afternoon and will off against left-hander Brandon Williamson. Not only has San Diego fared well against lefties lately, but both bullpens have been terrible and lack depth.
As a result, the over should be in play.
The Padres can hit lefties. They owned a 139 wRC+ with a sub-20% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate in June. Their OPS was also .868.
They have eight hitters with a .325+ xwOBA on the season. Gary Sánchez is 7-for-28 and Matt Carpenter is 4-for-14, so there are a couple players with a minimal number of plate appearances against southpaws.
That said, San Diego has enough talent to attack Williamson.
As stated above, the Padres have very few relievers that they can heavily rely upon.
Of the active bullpen arms, only Ray Kerr and Josh Hader have a sub-4.00 xFIP. That's atrocious and should provide an edge to Cincinnati's offense.
Meanwhile, Williamson may be in Cincinnati's future plans, but he hasn't earned a spot in the rotation yet. The 25-year-old southpaw owns a 5.82 ERA against a 6.76 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 12.9%, his hard-hit rate in 46% and his average exit velocity is nearly 90 mph.
Additionally, his strikeout rate is only 17% and he's walking 9.9% of hitters.
It's also important to note that he went just two innings in his last outing. San Diego could have a field day.
In relief, the Reds need a lot of help and have a collective 5.35 xFIP in June (the worst in MLB).
Regardless of who the who the Padres throw, the Reds will be able to hit. They can smash righties, and outside of Hader, there aren't many prominent lefties who could factor into this game.
All signs point to numerous runs, so take the over in this game and play it to 11.
Pick: Padres vs. Reds Over |
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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Saturday, July 1 3:07 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Blue Jays Moneyline (-154) |
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the Saturday slate is the Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (-154) as they host the Boston Red Sox.
Left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi will get the start for the Blue Jays and he’s been exceptional in his past two outings, during which he struck out 14 and allowed just one earned run over 13 innings. Meanwhile, Kutter Crawford will be on the mound for the Red Sox. Crawford has allowed at least four earned runs in two of his past three starts.
Given the recent form of both pitchers, the Blue Jays clearly have a sizable starting-pitching advantage. The Blue Jays' lineup has five hitters with at least a .170 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, while Red Sox only have three hitters with at least a .170 ISO against left-handed pitching. The Blue Jays also have a slightly better bullpen ERA (3.81) than the Red Sox (3.94).
Toronto is the better team and is also at home. I'm backing the Blue Jays on Saturday.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Pirates
Saturday, July 1 4:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 7.5 (+100)  |
By D.J. James
Johan Oviedo finally started to turn it around in June with a 3.23 ERA and 27 strikeouts against five walks. He will face off with Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday. Burnes is Milwaukee's ace, though he has a 4.10 ERA. However, his xERA is 3.64, so positive regression is looming and Burns gets to face one of the worst offenses in baseball in this matchup.
The Bucs held a 78 wRC+ with a .643 OPS off right handers in June. The Brewers have been around the same and held a 77 wRC+ with a .643 OPS off of righties over the past month. Milwaukee also struck out 27.7% of the time, so Oviedo should be in good shape.
In relief, the Pirates have taken a massive step back. They were once atop the league in xFIP, but fell to a 5.30 xFIP. That said, David Bednar is solid and PIttsburgh has a couple other solid options once Oviedo leaves the game.
Milwaukee has also struggled in relief, but Burnes has thrown five innings in all but one start this season. When facing the Pirates, he may throw even more.
Oviedo seems to have straightened out his early season control issues. Burnes has been inconsistent with his command, but the Pirates are unlikely to make him pay for many mistakes. Take the under to 7 (-130).
Pick: Brewers vs. Pirates Under |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
