It's the final weekend of the regular season and there's still plenty to play for in several matchups.
One of those matchups today — Astros vs. Diamondbacks — has expert bets from two of our analysts. We also have a pick on Padres vs. White Sox.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, September 29th.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Padres vs. White Sox
By Kevin Rogers
The Padres were one round away from the World Series last season, but San Diego will be watching the playoffs from home this season. The final regular season series for the Padres takes place in Chicago against another disappointing squad, the White Sox.
San Diego still has a shot at a winning record if the Padres can sweep the Sox this weekend as Bob Melvin’s team is riding an 11-2 run over the last 13 games.
From a first five innings perspective, the Padres own a 10-2-1 mark during this stretch, while not allowing a run eight times.
Nick Martinez may not go long for the Padres as he has not pitched more than four innings in any of his last four starts. However, the right-hander has not allowed a run during this stretch and is 3-1 in the first five innings since August.
Dylan Cease counters for Chicago tonight as the Sox are 2-5 in his last seven starts in the first five innings. The right-hander is coming off a strong 11-strikeout performance in a 1-0 win at Boston, but Chicago is in the midst of a 4-11-2 mark in its last 17 home series openers in the first five innings.
Let’s back the Padres at -0.5 in the first five innings at +108 and play that number to +100.
Pick: Padres F5 RL -0.5 (+108)
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Astros vs. Diamondbacks
By D.J. James
Zac Gallen may be a Cy Young contender in the National League, but his peripherals prove otherwise, and he goes up against one of the best teams against righty pitching in baseball: the Houston Astros. Gallen has a 3.49 ERA and a 4.16 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 91.4 MPH with a Hard Hit Rate of 45.9% and a Barrel Rate of 9.4%. All of these numbers are well below average. Yes, he only walks 5.6% of hitters and strikes them out 26% of the time, but these hard contact numbers are concerning.
Houston pitches J.P. France, who owns a 3.83 ERA against a 4.97 xERA. He does not allow the hard contact that Gallen does, but he still has issues with it. His Average Exit Velocity is 89.6 MPH. His Barrel Rate is 8.1%, and his Hard Hit Rate is 38.7%. He is only striking out 17.4% of batters with an 8.1% walk rate.
However, Arizona has a worse bullpen. In September, they have a 4.49 xFIP against Houston’s bullpen xFIP of 4.18.
In addition, the Astros hammer righties, as mentioned above. They own a 142 wRC+ and .884 OPS in September with an 8% walk rate and 17.9% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Arizona has an 88 wRC+ and .689 OPS. Their walk rate is 8.8%, and their strikeout rate is 21.9%.
Since Houston has the ability to hit righties harder, it negates any edge Gallen has over France. Take the Astros to -130 on the road.
Pick: Astros ML (+116)
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Astros vs. Diamondbacks
By Tony Sartori
We are catching a generous total in this contest as right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona.
Yes, he had been in the NL Cy Young conversation for most of the campaign and is a very solid pitcher. However, he has been inconsistent over the second-half of the season and could struggle against this powerhouse Houston lineup.
While Gallen has tossed two shutouts over his past six starts, he has surrendered four or more runs in each of the other four outings. This regression over the latter-half of the year was not all that surprising given that the right-hander ranks in the 49th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
Meanwhile, the Astros rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS. Arizona also possesses a solid lineup, ranking in the top half of the league in each of those categories.
The DBacks should also be able to put up some runs against right-handed rookie J.P. France, who owns a 3.83 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 24 appearances on the mound. His analytics are also poor, ranking in the 32nd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and average exit velocity.
There have now been nine or more total runs scored in four of France's past six starts.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) | Bet to -130
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