The playoffs are rapidly approaching as MLB's regular season winds down. There are 11 games on Thursday's slate and although betting late season baseball is tricky, our experts are here to help.
Handicapping motivation is always tough at this point of the season, but our MLB betting experts have you covered. They've looked over today's MLB odds and identified best bets in Royals vs. Tigers and Cardinals vs. Brewers.
There's a straight moneyline pick, as well as a team total, so be sure to continue reading for today's best MLB bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 p.m. ET | |
  | 4:10 p.m. ET | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs. Tigers
By D.J. James
Cole Ragans has been one of the most impressive starting pitchers in the second half of the season. He'll start Kansas City's Thursday matinee against the Detroit Tigers, who will throw Sawyer Gipson-Long, another impressive, young pitcher.
Both of these teams have hit well in September, but Ragans has a much larger sample size to draw from. With that being the case, the Kansas City's moneyline is the best bet for Royals vs. Tigers.
Ragans has a 3.31 ERA against a 3.22 xERA this season. His Barrel Rate is only 6.3%, his Average Exit Velocity is 88 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 37.6%. Additionally, his strikeout rate is 28.8% and his walk rate is 10.1%. That said, his second half has been impeccable with a 2.34 ERA over 11 starts.
The Royals have also hit well against righties this month. They have a 107 wRC+ and a .771 OPS with a 9.4% walk rate and a 23.2% strikeout rate. In even better news, they have nine active hitters with a xwOBA over .325 this month off of righties. That should give them a leg up against Gipson-Long’s inexperience.
Kansas City's bullpen is a tad concerning with a 4.53 xFIP, a 19.8% strikeout rate and a 8.5% walk rate in September, but if Ragans pitches deep into this game, that won't matter much.
Gipson-Long has fared well in his limited starts. He has a 2.40 ERA over 15 innings, but those were all against horrible offenses (the White Sox, Angels and A’s). In the minors this season, he held a 4.33 ERA and a .737 OPS against.
The Tigers have hit lefties well in September. They have a 128 wRC+ and a .840 OPS with a 9.6% walk rate and a 24.3% strikeout rate. Spencer Torkelson can hammer the ball, but the Royals have a little more depth and also have an edge with the more experienced starting pitcher.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| |
Cardinals vs. Brewers
By D.J. James
The Milwaukee Brewers have clinched the National League Central and look forward to a playoff run with a solid pitching staff. However, they've also made some recent strides offensively, especially against right-handed pitching. On Thursday, they'll face Dakota Hudson and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Hudson has a 4.95 ERA and a 6.05 xERA with a 90.5 mph Average Exit Velocity. His Barrel Rate is 8.3%, his Hard-Hit Rate is 45.8% and his strikeout rate is an abysmal 12.7%. He also has a below average walk rate of 9.3%. Yes, he keeps the ball on the ground at a 52.6% clip, but that's not enough to get the job done against a good offense. Hudson has a 5.17 second-half ERA over 69 2/3 innings and that number could get worse against the Brewers.
Milwaukee has a 105 wRC+ and a .754 OPS against righties this month. The Brewers also have a 9.4% walk rate and a 23.4% strikeout rate. The Brewers also have four hitters with an xwOBA over .350, so the power at the top of the order should be enough to get the job done against Hudson.
In relief, the Cardinals are also horrible. They have a 4.85 xFIP, a 20.1% strikeout rate and a 12.5% walk rate.
Bet the Brewers to go over 4.5 runs and play their team total to 5.
Pick: Brewers Over 4.5 Runs (+100)
| |
