After a day full of afternoon action, only 10 games populate Monday's MLB schedule — but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value to be had.
Our MLB writers dug deep to find two picks for Monday, including bets for Reds vs. Giants and Marlins vs. Cardinals. Whether you're looking to fade some weak offenses or back a pitcher who's on fire, we have you covered.
Read on for both of our best bets for Monday's MLB slate below — and check back tomorrow for even more MLB best bets.
Monday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Monday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs. Reds
Monday, July 17 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 10  |
By Tony Sartori
These two teams enter this contest in opposite form, with the San Francisco Giants riding a five-game win streak and the Cincinnati Reds coming off four straight losses to the Milwaukee Brewers.
The reasoning for these two trends are also relatively straightforward — the Giants are pitching well, while the Reds are struggling at the dish.
While Cincinnati has been a wildly fun team to watch this season with its ensemble of young up-and-coming stars, this lineup is especially prone to cold streaks in the hitting department. Over those four losses to the Brewers, the Reds were shut out three times.
Another poor hitting performance could take place against right-hander Logan Webb, who's slated to take the mound for the Giants. Through 19 starts this season, he's 8-7 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
However, run support is surely not guaranteed for Webb. Entering this contest, the Giants rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA and SLG.
The reason for this total sitting at double-digits is the fact that left-handed rookie Brandon Williamson is slated to take the mound for Cincinnati.
I don't trust him in the slightest, but the good news is that he's been kept on a short leash recently, pitching three or fewer innings in two of his past three starts.
Finally, there have been 10 or fewer total runs scored in seven of San Francisco's past eight games and in five of Cincinnati's past six.
Pick: Under 10 |
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Monday, July 17 7:45 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Marlins ML -104  |
You know who’s cooking right now? Jesus Luzardo.
Look at the numbers from his last four starts:
- 25.2 innings
- 2 earned runs (0.70 ERA)
- 14 hits
- 35 strikeouts (37.2%)
- 5 walks (5.3%)
- 17.5% Swinging-Strike rate
- 33.7% CSW rate
Holy Fish! His fastball-slider combination is cooking batters.
It's worth mentioning one of those four starts came against St. Louis (6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K). The Cardinals are known for hitting southpaws hard, but that might be a myth. They have a 91 wRC+ against the side since June 1.
Let’s take that analysis one step further. Against lefty fastballs and sliders combined, the Cardinals have the third-lowest xwOBA among MLB lineups this season (.298) — the only other teams with a sub-.300 mark are the Guardians, Rockies and Twins.
So, initially, you might think the Cardinals profile well against Luzardo, but it’s actually the opposite.
Also, the Fish have the league’s best reliever expected FIP since June 1 (3.52). How are the Cardinals going to score?
Meanwhile, the Marlins shouldn’t have a problem scoring, considering Miles Mikolas’ 4.88 expected ERA, St. Louis’ 5.48 bullpen ERA since June 1, and the Cardinals’ -20 Defensive Runs Saved (25th in MLB this year).
It’s also a solid buy-low, sell-high spot. Miami needs a win after getting swept by Baltimore over the weekend, while the Cardinals are due to drop one after winning four of their past five.
Go Fish.
Pick: Marlins ML -104 |
