MLB Best Bets: 3 Friday Picks & Predictions
Getty Images. Pictured: Cal Raleigh and JP Crawford.
We made it to Friday! And with a full slate of Major League Baseball on tap, our staff of MLB betting analysts have three MLB Best Bets, with moneyline picks for Dodgers vs Tigers and Mariners vs Angels, as well as an over/under prediction for Yankees vs Orioles.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Friday Picks & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:38 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dodgers vs. Tigers
By Sean Paul
Wait. Are the Detroit Tigers favored over the big bad LA Dodgers? Instant Dodgers ML play, right?
Wrong.
The Dodgers are reeling right now. Injuries have taken a toll on the team, and missing two of their better bats, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy, is causing real problems.
While their lineup numbers still look great — ranking seventh in wRC+ this month — if Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez don’t hit, then the Dodgers probably won’t score. That foursome each owns wRCs above 145, but no other Dodger batter with more than 15 ABs since July 1st has better than a 95 wRC+.
That won’t bode well against Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal, who just struck out a career-high 13 batters in seven pristine innings in his last start against the Reds. The Southpaw owns the 2nd best ERA in MLB at 2.37, with an outstanding 2.55 FIP, and he punches out 10.5 batters per nine.
Plus, Dodgers starter James Paxton is very fade-able. Once upon a time, Paxton featured elite strikeout stuff like Skubal. Now, Paxton battles to get through five or six innings each start. He strikes out just 6.47 per nine, and his 4.92 FIP indicates regression is on his doorstep.
I’ll gladly grab the Tigers with Skubal on the bump as my best bet. I’m playing it at -140, but I’ll go up to -155 if the juice hits the Tigers, which wouldn’t surprise me, given the pitching advantage.
Pick: Tigers ML (-140)
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Yankees vs. Orioles
By Cody Goggin
Gerrit Cole is still returning from injury and hasn’t quite found his footing yet. The Cy Young Award winner has a 6.75 ERA over four starts since returning from his long IL stint.
However, I think that he is starting to get back on track.
After registering just five strikeouts in his first 8 innings and two starts, Cole has 14 strikeouts across his last 9 1/3 IP. In his previous two starts, he posted FIPs of 3.86 and 2.57, trending in the right direction.
The Orioles offense is among the best in the league, ranking second in wRC+ and wOBA. Cole has faced them this season and allowed two runs over four innings in his first start of the year.
The biggest edge in this matchup lies in the Yankees vs Cade Povich. It’s known at this point that the Yankees have a problem with hitting left-handed pitching. They are among the league leaders in offense overall but rank 13th in wRC+ and 17th in wOBA vs lefties.
I don’t believe Cade Povich is a reliable pitcher. He has a 6.51 ERA, 4.01 xERA, and 6.31 FIP through six Major League starts. Povich has only struck out 18 batters over 27 2/3 IP this season, ranking in the third percentile in whiff rate.
I’m a big believer in the Yankees in this matchup, as I think they can have success against Povich despite their struggles against lefties. Cole also has a tough matchup, but I think he will be able to piece everything back together soon and return to his previous form.
I love backing the Yankees here at -0.5 over the first five innings of this game. Neither of these starters will likely go deep, but in the times they are in, I have the most faith in this Yankees’ offense versus the rookie Povich.
Pick: Yankees F5 -0.5 (+110)
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Mariners vs. Angels
By D.J. James
Bryan Woo is just one of a long list of great starting pitchers on the Seattle Mariners. He has been lights out. Although he carries a below-average groundball rate, he only walks 2% of batters with a strikeout rate of 18.7%. In addition, Wood ranks in the 72nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed. When healthy, these factors have led him to a sub-2.20 xERA and ERA.
His opponent will be Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Angels. Anderson is just begging for the regression monster to attack. It will happen soon because his 2.81 ERA against a 4.48 xERA is unsustainable. He does not keep the ball on the ground or limits hard contact, but Anderson is striking out 16.8% of hitters with a walk rate of 10.3%. He is letting runners on and getting out of jams. Eventually, those runners will score.
The Mariners have been below hitting the ball in the last month but are a bit better against lefties, like Anderson, at a 9.9% walk rate, 26.9% strikeout rate, and 93 wRC+.
The Angels have an 8.4% walk rate, 21.6% strikeout rate, and 103 wRC+ in the last month against righties, but Woo is much better than Anderson.
Finally, Seattle has a decent relief staff, while the Angels have been awful out of the bullpen lately.
Look for Seattle and Woo to notch a win here. Play them from -140 to -155.
Pick: Mariners ML (-140)
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