MLB Best Bets | 5 Picks & Predictions for Friday
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We are finally back! After a week of no baseball during the All-Star break, we have a full slate of MLB action on the diamond this Friday.
Our staff has locked in five MLB Best Bets, including picks and predictions for Phillies vs Pirates, Reds vs Nationals, Padres vs Guardians and Cardinals vs Braves.
MLB Best Bets | 5 Picks & Predictions for Friday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs. Pirates
Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Play to -1.5 (+110)
By Cody Goggin
Two in-state rivals will face off on Friday, as the Philadelphia Phillies will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates.
The Phillies have the best record in the NL coming out of the break, while the Pirates are sitting 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot.
Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies. Has has a 3.38 ERA and a 3.28 xERA on the year. Nola does well with avoiding walks (81st percentile), striking batters out (67th percentile), and preventing hard contact (73rd percentile in hard hit rate allowed).
The Pirates rank 27th in wRC+ and 28th in wOBA this season while ranking 25th in strikeout rate. Pittsburgh hits the ball hard, ranking in the top ten in most Statcast metrics, but this hasn’t resulted in much production, as they have the third-highest ground ball rate in the league.
Martin Perez has a 1.62 WHIP and a 5.15 ERA over 14 starts this season with a 5.79 xERA. Among qualified pitchers, the veteran lefty ranks in the 15th percentile in strikeout rate, 20th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 56th percentile in walk rate. Perez has been underwhelming by almost all accounts this year.
Philadelphia ranks sixth in wRC+ and fourth in wOBA. They walk at the fourth-highest rate in the league while ranking seventh in ISO and 6th in slugging. The Phillies also rank 10th in hard-hit rate and 15th in barrel rate this season.
Philadelphia hasn’t had an issue with left-handed pitching, as they rank seventh in wRC+ and fourth in wOBA against the side.
The Phillies have the much better pitcher and the better offense in this matchup. The Pirates hit the ball hard, but Nola shouldn’t have too much trouble striking them out and keeping the ball on the ground.
On the other hand, Perez has been one of the worst starters in the league, and the Phillies’ offense is a top-ten unit by most accounts. I’d expect them to be able to hit Perez hard and give Nola the run support he needs for an easy Phillies win.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Play to -1.5 (+110)
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Phillies TT o4.5 (+100) | Play to 5 (-110)
By D.J. James
Aaron Nola has been one of the most reliable pitchers for the Philadelphia Phillies this year. That says a lot for a team with a loaded starting pitching staff.
He will face Martín Pérez and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pérez is finally seeing the chickens coming home to roost. He has never been a hard thrower, but the veteran southpaw has been abysmal in several areas this year. He has average groundball and walk rates but used to rank better in those metrics. He barely strikes anyone out, and his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity marks are well below average.
The Phils have hammered lefties all year and should continue to do so here. They have a 117 wRC+ as a unit in the last month against lefties with a 9.6% walk rate and sub-20% strikeout rate. They have seven bats with 10+ plate appearances above a .320 xwOBA. Much of their lineup can hit lefties, and Pérez has been one of the easiest southpaws to hit in the league.
The Pirates have also had some issues in middle relief this year. Yes, in that same timeframe, Pittsburgh owns a sub-4.00 xFIP in relief, but if Pérez cannot make it to the fifth inning, they will be in dire straits.
Look for Nola and the Phillies to roll on. The Phils should hit well and push across runs early.
Pick: Phillies TT o4.5 (+100) | Play to 5 (-110)
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Reds vs. Nationals
By Tony Sartori
There is no better way to return from the All-Star break than a Patrick Corbin day.
The southpaw is perhaps the worst starting pitcher in baseball. He is 1-9 through 19 starts this season with a fade-worthy 5.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even worse, as Corbin owns a 6.29 xERA and ranks in the bottom three percent of qualified pitchers in xBA allowed, average exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed.
Cincinnati should be able to jump all over him, given that it ranks 13th in the league in runs scored per game. This success will likely continue against Corbin, as the Reds boast a .446 BA, .714 SLG and .515 wOBA against Corbin through 62 combined career plate appearances.
Instead of fading Corbin directly, I am looking at the over because Frankie Montas isn't much better. Montas is 4-7 through 17 starts with a 4.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
Like Corbin, Montas' analytics are even worse as he sports a 4.85 xERA and ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in xBA allowed, hard-hit rate allowed, and strikeout rate.
Pick: Over 9 (-110)
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Padres vs. Guardians
By William Boor
The Orioles and Yankees get the bulk of the headlines as they battle for AL East supremacy, but it's the Cleveland Guardians who enter the second half of the season with the best winning percentage in the American League.
Cleveland is 58-37 and has been dominant — 30-11 (.682) — at home, which I expect will continue to be the case this weekend. The Guardians host the Padres on Friday night and will send Tanner Bibee to the mound against San Diego's Matt Waldron.
Bibee, 25, struggled in his final two starts of the first half, but I'm willing to write that off as fatigue and feel the off days will serve him well. After all, Bibee did excel in the second half last season, going 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA over 12 starts.
This season, the right-hander has pitched to a 3.77 ERA and a 3.36 xERA through 19 starts. He also boasts a 1.12 WHIP and ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in xBA allowed, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, hard-hit rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed.
San Diego will counter with Waldron, who also struggled before the break. However, Waldron's second half a season ago (1-2 with a 4.42 ERA over seven appearances) wasn't great, and there's no track record of strong second-half performances.
Waldron's knuckleball is an interesting wrinkle that Cleveland must adjust to, but the 27-year-old right-hander doesn't generate much swing and miss. If the Guardians consistently put the ball in play, I'm confident they'll put some runs on the board.
Waldron has a 3.79 xERA through 19 starts this season, but the fact that he ranks in the 15th percentile in whiff percentage and the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate has me ready to fade him.
I bet the Guardians will start the second half with a home victory.
Pick: Guardians ML (-144)
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Cardinals vs. Braves
By Kenny Ducey
I apologize Spencer Schwellenbach, I was not familiar with your game.
After a rocky beginning to your big-league career, you’ve managed to come straight from Double-A and figure it out on the fly to produce two stellar outings to close out the first half against the Phillies and Padres.
While I hope Spencer accepts my apology, I think Friday represents an excellent opportunity to fade the baby-faced righty. The Cardinals have been a completely different team at the plate this month, with a 119 wRC+ to sit eighth in the league, hitting a splendid .284 with a solid 20.3% strikeout rate around a few walks.
Swinging freely generally isn’t the best way to attack a young arm, but Schwellenbach has demonstrated exceptional control through eight starts. It’s worked well enough, pitching to a .247 xBA allowed, which sits just a couple of points above the league norm. But one glaring trend has been a sharp flyball uptick in his past three outings. Those killed him in his first few starts, and now, at a hitter’s park in Atlanta, I think that'll do him in again here versus a surging offense.
The Cardinals should continue hitting here against a pretty middling arm. On the flip side, the fly-ball-happy Braves should see their struggles in July persist against Sonny Gray.
The veteran should not only keep finding strikeouts against a team punching out a whopping 26.2% of the time this month but should pitch well to contact, given his ground-balling ways. The Braves are 19th in OPS against these types compared to 13th against fly-ballers with a 40-point delta in slugging percentage, which is enough to give the road team the edge here.
Pick: Cardinals ML (+115)
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