MLB Best Bets Monday: 3 Over/Under Predictions
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There are only 12 MLB games on Monday, June 24, but our staff still has three MLB Best Bets to share, including over/under predictions for Phillies vs Tigers, Mariners vs Rays and Pirates vs Reds.
MLB Best Bets Monday: 3 Over/Under Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Monday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:50 p.m. | ||
| 7:10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs. Tigers
By Tony Sartori
I think there's a solid chance that Philadelphia will score eight runs by itself on Monday. This is one of the best lineups in baseball, ranking in the top five in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
That is bad news for right-hander Casey Mize, who is slated to take the mound for Detroit. Mize is 1-5 through 14 starts this season with a 4.44 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. His underlying metrics are just as poor. The right-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
The only reason that this total is at eight is because Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies against a below-average Tigers lineup. Don't get me wrong, Nola is very good, but he is also not unhittable. Nola fails to crack the league's top third in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Again, he is still a very solid pitcher, but he has surrendered three or more runs in back-to-back starts, and that should be all the help we need for the over, given the Mize-versus-Philadelphia matchup.
Pick: Over 8 (-112)
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Mariners vs. Rays
By John Feltman
Bryan Woo is coming off a start where he was lifted in the third inning due to a pitch count limit. Woo was not very effective, but his previous starts have all been outstanding.
It's safe to say it's been a bizarre season for Woo, who has battled injuries through most of the season with a strikeout rate far below last year's pace. However, he has done an outstanding job limiting free passes and still carries a 2.06 expected ERA.
The Rays boast a bottom-five lineup. Despite the lack of strikeouts, Woo has proven to be very effective when healthy, and he can neutralize Tampa.
Opposing Woo will be 23-year-old Taj Bradley.
Bradley has struggled in a few starts but clearly has the tools to become a top-of-the-rotation talent. He gives up a decent amount of walks, and opposing hitters are not having any issues squaring up the baseball against him.
Luckily, he draws a good matchup against the Mariners.
The Mariners' offense has been similarly dreadful, where they rank bottom-five in runs and hits per game. If Bradley can limit the hard contact, he should have no issues carving up the lineup.
I'd much rather pay the juice on the F5 under than target the full-game total since both bullpens have been below average throughout most of the season.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-140)
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Pirates vs. Reds
By John Feltman
It's a perfect setting for both of these offenses to break out on a warm-weather night at Great American Ballpark.
Carson Spiers gets the ball for the Reds, and he'll be opposed by Bailey Falter. Both of these starting pitchers are no strangers to fly balls, which is perfect for the bandbox in Cincy.
Spiers does not miss many bats, but he does limit hard contact for the most part. Still, he has an alarmingly low ground ball rate which will correlate to balls flying out of the ballpark.
The same could be said for Falter, who has poor underlying metrics. His whiff rate, chase rate, and average exit velocity allowed are all a major concern moving forward. His 3.74 ERA should realistically be above 5.00.
The Pirates' offense struggled yesterday, but I do not expect that to be the case here. Even if both starters perform better than expected, they must rely on their weak bullpens to close the game.
I really like both of these offenses to score in bunches tonight, and I expect this matchup to fly over the total.
Pick: Over 10 (-105)
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