MLB Best Bets Today | Picks, Predictions Thursday (August 1)
Credit: Getty Images.
There's often little value to be found on these smaller baseball slates — Thursday, August 1, features only five games.
Fear not; our staff of MLB betting analysts have locked in four MLB Best Bets, including two picks for Cardinals vs Cubs.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 8:05 p.m. | |
| 8:05 p.m. | |
  | 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs. Tigers
By Nick Martin
There still seems to be faith around the Tigers organization that Keider Montero can put it all together and start finding better results moving forward.
Despite his ugly 6.38 ERA, Montero holds a respectable Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Location+ rating of 98. He has pitched to a 5.46 over the last five starts with an xFIP of 4.57. Those starts have come against a brutal string of opponents, too, as his last five opponents finished with an average wRC+ ranking of 121 versus righties in July.
Kansas City's offensive play has been better on the road of late and padded some stats in Chicago this week, but the Royals are still drastically worse on the road. Almost suspiciously so, as it has hit an 86 wRC+ on the road this season and holds the 23rd-ranked road BB/K compared to the fourth-ranked home BB/K.
Seth Lugo's stuff is not grading out as well as you would think (98 Stuff+), and his 3.95 xERA does suggest he's had some favorable luck. Opponents have hit just .191 against him with RISP, which has helped his overall process look more dominant than it is. In July, he was hard-hit 47% of the time and allowed an xBA of .302.
Detroit has been in far better offensive form of late, and holds a wRC+ of 104 against RHP since the start of July with a .731 OPS.
Lugo looks to be a little overvalued here in a matchup versus a Tigers offense that is in good form, and Montero could start to trend toward slightly more respectable results the rest of the way. At +135, there looks to be value in taking a shot with the Tigers as a home underdog on Thursday.
Pick: Tigers ML (+135)
- Bet Royals vs Tigers at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.
| | |
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Cardinals ML (-105)
By Cody Goggin
The St. Louis Cardinals have been coming alive offensively as of late.
They rank 16th in wRC+ this season but are eighth over the last 30 days. In this time period, they also rank ninth in wOBA, 12th in SLG, and 13th in hard-hit rate. They also have struck out at the 7th-lowest rate in this time period.
There are still some issues, like their lack of barrels and walks. Still, this offense has been much improved since getting some major contributors back in the lineup, like Willson Contreras and Lars Nootbar, while Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have started to heat back up. St. Louis added Tommy Pham to their lineup this week, giving them another competent bat to slot in.
The Cardinals will have their ace on the mound tonight as Sonny Gray enters the start with a 3.79 ERA, 3.71 xERA, 2.73 xFIP, and a 2.96 SIERA. He has, without a doubt, been the Cardinal's best starter this season, racking up 138 strikeouts in 111 2/3 IP. Gray has been getting strikeouts (92nd percentile), avoiding walks (79th percentile), and keeping the ball on the ground (66th percentile), which is about all you can ask for.
Tonight he’ll face off against a Cubs’ lineup that has struggled for much of the season. Chicago ranks 20th in wRC+ both on the season and over the last 30 days. This year they are also 22nd in wOBA, 17th in OBP, 24th in SLG, and 21st in ISO. They both walk and strike out at rates higher than the league average.
Shota Imanaga will start for the Cubs tonight. He has succeeded this year, thanks partly to his low walk rate (97th percentile), as he has a 2.95 ERA but a 3.47 xERA. Imanaga has been an above-average strikeout pitcher but hasn’t kept the ball on the ground (ninth percentile), while ranking in the a 22nd percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 49th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
I think St. Louis has an edge tonight on both offense and with their starting pitcher, as well as in the bullpen. For that reason, I don’t think the Cardinals should be the underdog, and instead, I will take them to win on the full-game moneyline.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-105)
- Maximize your Cardinals vs Cubs action with our DraftKings promo code.
Under 8 (-114)
By Tony Sartori
We should have a great pitching duel on Thursday between Sonny Gray and Shota Imanaga.
Through 19 starts, Gray is 10-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Meanwhile, Imanaga returns with an 8-2 record, 2.95 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Both pitchers also rank in the league's top half in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate.
That is bad news for two lineups that struggle to produce runs. Both teams rank in the league's bottom half in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
This current Cardinals lineup possesses a fade-worthy .167 BA, .222 SLG and .187 wOBA through 20 combined career plate appearances against Imanaga.
Pick: Under 8 (-114)
| | |
Rockies vs. Angels
By D.J. James
Carson Fulmer finds himself back in a starting rotation again for the Los Angeles Angels.
The former first-round pick has still struggled to keep the ball in the strike zone with an 11.6% walk rate. He ranks below the league average in both hard-hit rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed. He has done well getting hitters to chase and still has a sub-4.00 ERA.
That said, the Colorado Rockies have surprisingly hammered righties lately.
The Rockies throw Ryan Feltner, who has had some great results at the helm. He has a 4.99 ERA and 4.23 xERA. His batted-ball profile is better than Flumer's, and he's only walking around 7.5% of batters.
The major difference here is the Rockies’ lineup. They have a 114 wRC+ off of righties in the last month with a 23.6% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate.
The Angels have not been good against righties. They have an 87 wRC+ against the side over the past month.
Both Los Angeles and Colorado have been weak in relief, but Colorado has a few options they can go to when Feltner exits. Feltner has gone six or seven innings in his last couple of outings, so he can reduce the strain on the bullpen against a weak lineup.
Pick: Rockies ML (+108)
- Maximize your Rockies vs Angels action with our BetRivers promo code.
| | |
How would you rate this article?
