We have another full, 15-game slate of Major League Baseball action on Tuesday, July 23, and our staff of MLB betting experts is here to share two MLB Best Bets, including two plays on Phillies vs Twins
MLB Best Bets, Odds
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs. Twins
Twins ML (+125)
By D.J. James
Zack Wheeler is a Cy Young candidate. He has a 2.70 ERA and a sub-3.00 xERA alongside a stellar batted-ball profile.
But he has regressed with walks to a 7.5% against a 27% strikeout rate.
He and the Philadelphia Phillies will face Simeon Woods Richardson and the Minnesota Twins. This rookie has flown under the radar. He has a sub-4.00 ERA and xERA. He has a better walk rate than Wheeler, with an above average batted-ball profile. He has also been good at getting hitters to chase.
At the dish, the Phillies have a 110 wRC+ with a 6.8% walk rate and 25.4% strikeout rate against righties in the last month.
The Twins have been even better, with a 126 wRC+, 7.5% walk rate, and 18.1% strikeout rate. These numbers say the Twins can still work the count against Wheeler and keep the ball in play instead of submitting to strikeouts.
In relief, the Twins have also been solid in the last month. They have a 3.67 xFIP with a 24.8% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate.
The Phils have a 3.48 xFIP, a 27.7% strikeout rate, and a 6.9% walk rate. Few teams can match the Philly bullpen, so the Twins' performance in the latter innings could negate this usual edge.
Play the Twins on the moneyline here. They can get to Wheeler, and Woods Richardson can hold his own.
Pick: Twins ML (+125) | Play to ML (+115)
- Bet Phillies vs Twins at bet365 with ourbet365 bonus code.
Under 8 (-110)
By Tony Sartori
The under is in play whenever right-hander Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia. He is firmly in the NL Cy Young race with a 10-4 record, 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 19 starts this season.
Wheeler's underlying metrics are equally strong as he ranks in the 90th percentile or higher among qualified pitchers in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. This success will likely continue against Minnesota, a team with a fade-worthy .189 xBA, .246 xSLG and .282 xwOBA through 30 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander.
While the Phillies boast one of the best offenses in baseball, right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson should be able to handle the assignment. He is 3-1 through 16 starts this season with a 3.51 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Woods Richardson also ranks in the league's top half in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Finally, both bullpens rank in the league's top half in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
| |
Astros vs. Athletics
By Cody Goggin
The Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics will face off in a game between two largely inexperienced pitchers on Tuesday.
Rookie Jake Bloss will take the mound for the Astros. The 2023 third-round pick has made his way through the organization quickly. According to Fangraphs, he is the organization’s #2 prospect, and he has three above-average pitches: his fastball, slider, and curveball.
Bloss has made two starts this season, going 3 2/3 innings and four innings with two earned runs in each outing. He typically wasn’t going deep in his minor league starts this season either, often exiting at six frames or earlier, even when doing well. Across 66 innings in the minors this season, from High-A to Triple-AAA, Bloss had a 1.64 ERA.
On the other side we have Osvaldo Bido, who has made just one start this season and 10 in his MLB career. He was signed as a free agent from the Pirates and had a 5.86 ERA and 4.70 xERA over 50.2 innings last season. This year, he pitched 18.1 innings with a 3.44 ERA.
The Astros’ offense has been carrying them for much of the season, ranking eighth in wRC+ and ninth in wOBA. They rank eighth in SLG, 10th in OBP, and have the second-lowest strikeout rate.
Oakland has been better than expected offensively, ranking 14th in wRC+, 19th in wOBA, 17th in SLG, and 10th in ISO. However, they do strike out at the second highest rate in baseball.
I think the Astros have the better offense, and I like backing Bloss here in a battle between two relatively unknown pitchers. I believe the Astros are a bit underpriced here, and I would take them to have a lead after the first five innings.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (+100)
- Maximize your Astros vs Athletics action with our DraftKings promo code.
| |
