There's a full slate of MLB action on Tuesday, and our staff of baseball betting experts wants to share three MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, July 30, including picks and predictions for Marlins vs Rays, Mariners vs Red Sox, and Athletics vs Giants.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Picks & Predictions for Tuesday (7/30)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Tuesday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific Tuesday MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:50 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 9:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Marlins vs. Rays
By Tony Sartori
Left-hander Jeffrey Springs makes his long-awaited return to the mound following Tommy John Surgery, and let's not forget how dominant he was before his absence. He only pitched three games in 2023 but went 2-0 with a commanding 0.56 ERA and 0.50 WHIP.
That is a small sample size, but his 33-game sample size in 2022 was also terrific. Springs posted a 9-5 record that season with a stellar 2.46 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Even if his return has some hiccups, the southpaw will likely perform far better than right-hander Edward Cabrera, who gets the ball for Miami. Cabrera has struggled mightily this year, posting a 1-3 record with a 7.04 ERA and 1.62 WHIP through nine starts.
His underlying metrics are equally poor, as Cabrera ranks in the seventh percentile or lower in xERA, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Tampa has the better starter and the better lineup.
This season, the Rays rank higher than the Marlins in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. Finally, I believe there is more value in backing Tampa to win by at least two runs at +130 rather than laying -172 on the moneyline.
Seven of the Rays' past eight wins have come by at least a two-run differential, while six of Miami's past eight losses also fit that trend.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+130)
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Mariners vs. Red Sox
By Cody Goggin
James Paxton will make his 2024 debut with the Red Sox tonight.
The Red Sox beat Paxton nine days ago, leading to the Dodgers DFAing him and Boston acquiring him. The 35-year-old left-hander pitched for Boston last season and will now make his return.
Over 89 1/3 IP this season, Paxton has a 4.43 ERA with a 4.87 xERA, 5.31 xFIP, and 5.47 SIERA. He ranks in the ninth percentile in both walk rate and strikeout rate while allowing a lot of quality contact. Paxton ranks in the 15th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the fifth percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
He’ll battle a lineup tonight that has not hit well for much of the season. The Mariners rank 20th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA. They walk at the fourth-highest rate but strike out more than any other team.
Despite their weak production, Seattle ranks fifth in average exit velocity, third in hard-hit rate, and sixth in barrel rate. They also have a low rate of ground balls and a high rate of fly balls and pulled balls, which should result in more production than they have gotten. With this level of quality contact, I’m surprised that Seattle ranks 25th in BABIP, but they also rank seventh in xwOBACON as that stat strips away their strikeouts.
The Mariners have taken steps to address their offensive shortcomings as well, adding Randy Arozarena from Tampa Bay last week and Justin Turner this week, who may be able to make his debut in the lineup tonight.
I’m not worried about the Mariners striking out much tonight against Paxton. They’ll be playing on the road, providing a better scoring environment than they are used to.
I'm betting Seattle put runs on the board against their former pitcher.
Pick: Mariners F5 TT o2.5 (-110)
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Athletics vs. Giants
By Nick Martin
Robbie Ray looked to be back in Cy Young form in his 2024 debut, as he allowed only one earned run and zero hits in five innings of work versus the Dodgers. Ray's fastball averaged just a hair above 95 MPH with a Stuff+ mark above 110. Oddsmakers are giving him plenty of credit for his lone outing, as he and the Giants are -185 favorites in this matchup.
Oakland's offense ranks first this month with a wRC+ of 130, averaging 6.19 runs per game. Some outlier performances have boosted those monthly marks, but the Athletics have also been crushing left-handed pitching for a much larger sample.
Since June 1st, the Athletics rank first in MLB with a 155 wRC+ and first in OPS by a wide margin at .892. Their process also looks excellent, as they own the third-best BB/K ratio and the fourth-best hard-hit rate (34%).
The Giants rank third in wRC+ versus southpaws in that span (139), but they do hold a lesser hard-hit rate and K/BB ratio and have likely had some favorable luck in holding a league-leading .355 BABIP. They will also be significantly disadvantaged if lefty-killer Heliot Ramos remains out of the lineup (281 wRC+ against LHP in 2024). However, that edge would be somewhat negated if Brent Rooker is traded before this game.
J.P. Sears certainly is a far lesser starter than Ray, but he still looks to be in respectable enough form to take on the Athletics at +155. Over his past five starts, Sears has pitched to a 4.13 ERA and 3.88 xFIP while striking out 8.58 batters per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics ML (+170)
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