MLB Best Bets Friday | 5 Picks, Predictions & Props (6/14)
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We have a loaded Friday slate of Major League Baseball, and our staff has locked in five MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 14.
Read on for analysis, picks and predictions for Padres vs Mets, Rays vs Braves, Royals vs Dodgers, Rangers vs Mariners and more.
MLB Best Bets Friday | 5 Picks, Predictions & Props (6/14)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. | ||
| 7:10 p.m. | ||
| 10:10 p.m. | ||
| 10:10 p.m. | ||
| 2:20 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cardinals vs. Cubs
By Sean Paul
For my Friday best bet, let’s head to Wrigley Field for afternoon day baseball. There’s nothing that goes together better in baseball than day games at Wrigley, and I’m targeting the home Cubs F5 ML.
It’s only a matter of time until Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson turns into … Kyle Gibson. He owns a 3.76 ERA in 76 innings, which would finish as one of the best seasons of his length career if it’s sustainable. I don’t think it is though.
Gibson has unkind peripherals — his xERA is 5.08 and his FIP is 4.35, suggesting regression is waiting on Gibson’s doorstep, and it could start as soon as Friday.
The Cubs offense is nothing special, but six of the nine likely starters boast a wRC+ above 100. It wouldn’t surprise me if the lefty bats — Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Mike Tauchman and Michael Busch — give Gibson troubles. Three of the four excel at lengthening counts and drawing walks, posting BB%’s above 12 percent.
I don’t love Jordan Wicks, but if he can provide five decent innings before the bullpen inevitably implodes, then I love the Cubs in this spot.
Pick: Cubs F5 ML (-109)
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Padres vs. Mets
By D.J. James
Matt Waldron, the San Diego Padres’ knuckleballer, is low-key having a great season. He has been exceptional with limiting Hard-Hit Rate (87th percentile) and holds an Average Exit Velocity of 87.4 mph. He is also striking out over 23% of hitters, which is pretty wild for a pitcher who does not throw hard.
His opponent will be Sean Manaea and the New York Mets. Manaea has been fine. He has a 4.30 ERA and 4.44 xERA. He allows a Hard-Hit Rate in the 21st percentile and holds an Average Exit Velocity of 89.6 mph. He has a ground-ball rate in the 9th percentile and sometimes has a tendency to walk hitters.
The Padres own a collective 105 wRC+ in the last month against southpaws. They are only striking out 15.5% of the time with a 7.9% walk rate.
The Mets have a 96 wRC+, 6.9% walk rate, and 23.1% strikeout rate off of righties, so Waldron should still continue missing some bats.
Now, the Mets have some flamethrowers in relief and have a 3.96 xFIP. They walk almost 10% of batters, though. San Diego, on the contrary, has a 3.45 xFIP in the bullpen with a strikeout rate over 26% and walk rate under 8%.
With Waldron and the San Diego bullpen having such a notable edge, backing the Padres on the road makes the most sense. Manaea could see his pitch count increase quickly with how little the Padres strike out, too.
Bet San Diego from -118 to -135.
Pick: Padres ML (-110)
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Rays vs. Braves
By John Feltman
Chris Sale gets the ball for the Braves on Friday night against Zack Littell and the Tampa Bay Rays. The Braves offense has been putrid as of late, but luckily for them, they have their ace on the mound.
Sale has been spectacular for the Braves, and he is amongst the favorites to start the All-Star game for the National League. His 3.01 ERA should actually be 2.70, according to Statcast, and he ranks in the top 85th percentile in the following metrics:
- AVG Exit Velo
- Chase Rate
- Whiff Rate
- GB%
- Strikeout Rate
- Walk Rate
Sale looks like his old self, and now he gets to face a pathetic Tampa offense. The Rays are coming off of a series win against the Cubs, but their offense continues to struggle in key moments.
They rank in the bottom five in batting average, runs scored and strikeouts per game. Their offense can't get out of their own way, and it may only require the Braves to score two runs to win the game outright.
As bad as the Braves offense has been, I am comfortable laying -130 on them win the F5 innings by at least a run. Don't overthink this one and enjoy Chris Sale day.
Pick: Braves F5 -0.5 (-125)
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Royals vs. Dodgers
By Tony Sartori
Kansas City hands the ball to left-hander Cole Ragans on Friday, and he should be a good candidate to back. Ragans is continuing to develop into one of the best pitchers in MLB, boasting a 3.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 14 starts this season.
He's been particularly dominating recently, allowing one or fewer runs in four of his past five starts. The southpaw is 2-1 with a commanding 1.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over that stretch.
Specifically, we're going to back Ragans in the strikeout market — you can currently find his line at 5.5 on FanDuel. He has surpassed this total in each of his past five starts.
This season, the former first-round pick ranks in the 73rd percentile in chase rate, 90th percentile in whiff rate and 89th percentile in strikeout rate.
It's a small sample size, but this Dodgers lineup has collectively only had 10 plate appearances against Ragans, and he boasts a 30% strikeout rate and 33.3% whiff rate over that sample.
Pick: Cole Ragans Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-142)
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Rangers vs. Mariners
By John Feltman
The Rangers and the Mariners are set to begin a three-game series in Seattle tonight. Andrew Heaney gets the ball for the Rangers and Luis Castillo gets it for the Mariners.
The current sluggers on the Rangers have had great success against Castillo in the past, hitting four HRs and sporting a .301 AVG over 93 at-bats. Castillo is still a solid everyday pitcher, but he is no longer the ace that he used to be.
Castillo's expected ERA is nearing 4.00, which suggests that he has been a bit fortunate thus far. There is still a lot to like about his metrics, but it's naive to think that he will be consistently dominant moving forward.
The Mariners are hitting .267 against Heaney, and I expect the Rangers to keep him in the game as long as possible. It's been a taxing week for the Rangers bullpen, and to make matters worse, they are bottom five in ERA as a unit.
I expect to see a lot of the middle of the Rangers pen, which is a recipe for disaster. I believe the market is overrating Heaney and Castillo just a tad, so there are a lot of paths for the total to go over.
Pick: Over 7 (-112)
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