There are 15 MLB games scheduled on Friday, May 31.
Action Network's baseball staff has three MLB Best Bets for Friday, including prop picks for Aaron Nola in Cardinals vs Phillies and Patrick Corbin in Nationals vs Guardians, as well as a moneyline lay in Rangers vs Marlins.
Continue reading below for our MLB Best Bets.
MLB Best Bets Friday: 3 Prop Picks & Predictions (5/31)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cardinals vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
Philadelphia hands the ball to right-hander Aaron Nola, who looks to continue his dominant start to the campaign.
Through 11 starts, Nola is 6-2 with a commanding 3.04 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
His underlying metrics don't suggest regression, given that he ranks in the top half of the league in expected ERA, average exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed and hard-hit rate allowed.
I'm backing Nola in the strikeout department, as he ranks in the 78th percentile among qualified pitchers in chase rate and 54th percentile in strikeout rate.
This success is likely to continue against St. Louis, a team Nola is 7-3 against with a 2.54 ERA across 12 career meetings. He's recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of those 12 outings.
That trend is likely to continue on Friday, given that the Cardinals rank 24th in the league this season in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching. Through 146 combined career plate appearances against Nola, this current St. Louis lineup possesses a fade-worthy 25.3% strikeout rate and 23% whiff rate.
Nola has exceeded six Ks in five of his past eight starts.
Pick: Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105) | Play to 6.5 (-105)
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Rangers vs. Marlins
By D.J. James
José Ureña has been pretty decent this year as a placeholder in the Texas Rangers starting rotation. The veteran righty excels via a high-octane sinker forcing an uber-high ground-ball rate (51%, 84th percentile). In 2023, he had a far worse hard-hit rate allowed and walk rate, so improving in those areas has been key to his improved overall profile (3.53 ERA, sub-4.00 expected ERA).
His opponent will be Sixto Sánchez and the Miami Marlins on Friday. Sánchez has only tossed five or more innings once this season. His ground-ball rate and barrel rate allowed rank in the top half of the league, but he strikes out even fewer hitters than Ureña.
In May, Texas owns a 97 wRC+ and 9.8% walk rate off of righties. This lineup has the ability to hit homers, so don't write them off.
The Marlins own a 97 wRC+ and sub-6% walk rate during the month, so they are not far behind, but their ceiling is not nearly as high.
The Texas bullpen has been a tad shaky this month (4.50 expected FIP). Miami’s has been better, but not by much (4.14).
Texas has a few arms it can default to when Ureña exits. Since Ureña will likely pitch deeper into the game than Sánchez, the Rangers could benefit immensely.
Take the Rangers to win on the road. Miami does not have the sticks or the pitching to win.
Bet Texas from -120 to -140. Ride the Ureña train.
Pick: Rangers ML (-120) | Play to ML (-140)
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Nationals vs. Guardians
By Cody Goggin
Patrick Corbin takes the mound tonight against the Cleveland Guardians with a strikeout prop total set at 3.5.
This is a very low bar to clear for most pitchers, but Corbin doesn't have the stuff. Despite often pitching five or more innings, Corbin has stayed under 3.5 Ks in six of his 11 starts this season.
Corbin ranks 75th out of 78 qualifying pitchers in Stuff+ (79). This is nothing new, as he ranked second-to-last in 2023 (81).
Corbin ranks in the fifth percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate and the 13th percentile in whiff rate. He also allows plenty of hard contact, resulting in a 6.12 ERA and a 6.37 expected ERA.
His opponent tonight is Cleveland, which owns the fifth-lowest strikeout rate among MLB lineups. They also rank in the top ten in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OBP, SLG, and most other statistical metrics. Despite not hitting the ball extremely hard by Statcast metrics, the Guardians have exceeded expectations and should pose a mismatch for Corbin.
I project Corbin for 2.78 strikeouts tonight with a median outcome of 3.00. Currently, the under is priced at +115, so my model believes there is plenty of value to be had here, and I would take this all the way down to -120.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115) | Play to 3.5 (-120)
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