MLB Best Bets: Monday Night Prop Picks & Predictions
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Gomber.
Although we have a very light Monday night baseball slate, our staff has still locked in two MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 1, including the moneyline for Mets vs Nationals and a player prop for Brewers vs Rockies.
Find our MLB Best Bets for Monday below along with props, picks and predictions.
MLB Best Bets: Monday Night Prop Picks & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:45 p.m. | ||
| 8:40 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mets vs. Nationals
David Peterson's expected ERA is over six, but that really doesn't tell the full story. It is based on a small five-start sample size, and as the last two years have proven, he's an average MLB starting pitcher.
By Stuff+, he is below average, mainly because his fastball is below average. His other two primary pitches — sinker and slider — grade out at 103 and 112. He does an elite job of generating groundballs at 52.4% because he lives down in the zone with his arsenal. He will be facing a Nationals lineup with the third-worst wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Mackenzie Gore has been awesome this season. He has a 3.79 xERA, and his Stuff+ numbers are off the charts. However, I'm not sure this is the best of matchups for him. He relies on his fastball a lot, throwing it 54% of the time and primarily up in the zone. It's the one pitch against which opposing hitters have succeeded, as they have a .326 xwOBA. The Mets not only have the third-best wRC+ against left-handed pitching, but they're also the best team in baseball by xwOBA against left-handed fastballs.
The Mets have an advantage in the bullpen, as they have a much better Stuff+ rating and xFIP. They also have an advantage defensively, as the Nationals have the fifth-worst defensive rating in baseball.
Even though Gore is a much better starting pitcher than Peterson, the Mets have advantages in every other aspect of this game, so I think they are undervalued at -108.
Pick: Mets ML (-106)
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Brewers vs. Rockies
By Tony Sartori
Colorado hands the ball to left-hander Austin Gomber, and he should be a good fade candidate.
Gomber is 1-5 with a fade-worthy 4.63 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 15 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are even worse, considering the southpaw possesses a 4.87 xERA and ranks in the 24th percentile or lower among qualified pitchers in xBA allowed, average exit velocity allowed and barrel rate allowed.
We will specifically fade Gomber in the strikeout market, as he ranks in the 21st percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
You can find his strikeout prop at 3.5, a number he has failed to cover in two of his past three starts. Gomber is 0-2 over that stretch with a 10.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.
These woes are likely to continue against Milwaukee. He has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in the past five meetings against the Crew.
Pick: Austin Gomber Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105)
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