MLB Best Bets Today | Monday Props, Picks, Predictions (July 22)
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: David Peterson (left), Hunter Greene (right).
It's not typical to see 13 MLB games on a Monday, but July 22 offers just that.
Our MLB betting staff has locked in two MLB Best Bets, including Prop Predictions for Mets vs Marlins (David Peterson) and Reds vs Braves (Hunter Greene).
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mets vs. Marlins
By Tony Sartori
New York hands the ball to left-hander David Peterson, primed for regression.
Despite posting a 3.09 ERA, he possesses a 5.36 xERA and ranks in the 14th percentile or lower among qualified pitchers in xBA allowed, average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate allowed.
We are going to look to capitalize on this expected regression by fading his strikeout prop. Peterson ranks in the 19th percentile in whiff rate and 11th percentile in strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Miami ranks in the top half of the league in strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitching. Through 68 combined career plate appearances against Peterson, this current Marlins lineup possesses a reasonable 22.1% strikeout rate and 23.7% whiff rate.
Pick: David Peterson Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-165, DraftKings) | Play to 4.5 (+120)
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Reds vs. Braves
By Cody Goggin
Hunter Greene is having the best season of his career. The former second-overall pick has a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with a 3.09 xERA.
Greene has 126 strikeouts over 110 1/3 innings and has been a strikeout machine his whole career. His strikeout rate has dipped a bit this season as he has become more refined in the rest of his game, allowing far less hard contact while walking fewer batters.
Among qualified pitchers, Greene ranks in the 80th percentile or better in all of the major Statcast batted-ball metrics after ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in the first two seasons of his career. He leads the league in Stuff+ while ranking above the 80th percentile in strikeout rate and whiff rate.
He battles a hard-hitting Braves lineup, but one that strikes out plenty. Atlanta strikes out 23.9% of the time, the eighth-highest rate in the Majors.
Despite the Braves' ability to make quality contact, I think Greene can avoid them getting to that point with his excellent swing-and-miss stuff. If they are able to make contact, I still think the new-look Greene can limit enough hard contact to post a quality start.
I like taking Greene’s strikeout over at 6.5 tonight. He has exceeded this number in his past two starts and eight times this season. I think Greene is transforming into an ace and will be able to force whiffs against the free-swinging Braves.
Pick: Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115, BetMGM) | Play to 6.5 (-130)
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