As is typical on Monday evenings, we have a smaller Major League Baseball slate tonight.
Still, our staff of experts has locked in two MLB Best Bets, including a first-half spread in Twins vs Mets and a pitching prop in Rangers vs Cardinals.
Read on for our MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 29th.
MLB Best Bets | 2 Monday Props & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Monday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Twins vs. Mets
By Cody Goggin
The New York Mets have been making headlines offensively over the last couple of months.
But the Minnesota Twins can also hit the ball hard, and they should probably be getting more attention.
Minnesota ranks fourth in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA this season. They also rank fifth in SLG, fifth in ISO, seventh in OBP, and have the 10th-best strikeout rate.
The Twins rank 17th in hard-hit rate, 10th in barrel rate, and 15th in exit velocity. They have turned this average contact into production by hitting the second-lowest rate of ground balls and pulling it at the seventh-highest rate.
They'll face Jose Quintana in this matchup, who has a 4.02 ERA this season but a 5.22 xERA — the veteran has been lucky. Quintana generates a higher rate of ground balls than average but ranks in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He also ranks in just the 22nd percentile in strikeout rate, as he isn’t whiffing many batters at this point in his career.
Simeon Woods Richardson is the starter for Minnesota. Over 88 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with an 3.74 xERA. Woods Richardson ranks in the 66th percentile in walk rate, 61st percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 53rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He doesn’t have the nastiest stuff but induces enough weak contact to produce.
Both teams have strong offenses, but I think Minnesota’s advantage tonight is in this starting pitching matchup. I don’t have faith in Quintana at this point in his career, so I'm backing the Twins on the first-half spread at plus-money.
Pick: Twins F5 -0.5 (+130)
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Rangers vs. Cardinals
By Tony Sartori
Texas hands the ball to right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, and he should be an excellent candidate to back.
Through 18 starts this season, Eovaldi is 7-4 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Specifically, we will back the right-hander in the strikeout market, as he ranks in the 66th percentile or higher in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
We have to lay a fair amount of juice on this over, but I believe it is worth the squeeze as Eovaldi has recorded five or more strikeouts in 13 of his past 17 outings.
His success should continue against St. Louis, a team he boasts a near-23% strikeout rate against through 53 combined career plate appearances.
The Cardinals rank in the bottom half of MLB in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
Pick: Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-162)
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