MLB Best Bets Today | Props, Predictions, Picks (Monday, July 8)
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Gray.
As is common in Major League Baseball, we have a relatively small, eight-game Monday slate, with an early afternoon matchup between the Mets and Pirates.
Still, despite the light offerings, our staff of MLB betting analysts has locked in two MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 8, including a moneyline bet for Rockies vs Reds and a strikeout prop for Rangers vs Angels.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rockies vs. Reds
By Sean Zerillo
Ryan Feltner has popped up on my model several times in 2024.
The quick Feltner summary: he's a potential league-average arm under the hood (4.14 xERA, 13.1% K-BB%, 98 Stuff+, 100 Location+) who has been victimized by a brutal home environment (career .336 BABIP, 58% strand rate) at Coors Field.
Feltner owns superior strikeout rates, walk rates and pitch modeling metrics compared to Andrew Abbott (9.5% K-BB%, 92 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+), who is an odd pitcher to profile. Indicators suggest that Abbott is a below-average arm — and a lesser pitcher than Feltner. However, he generates weak contact (91st percentile in hard-hit rate) and seems like a potential outlier from a forecasting standpoint.
Abbott has a 3.50 xERA compared to a 4.94 xFIP; projection systems expect his rest-of-season FIP to fall between 4.39 and 4.73. If Abbott can maintain a low hard-hit rate (30.6% in 2024; 42.5% last season) and .232 BABIP (.302 in 2023), he will continue to pitch well despite subpar strikeout and walk rates.
Still, the correction could be devastating if Abbott experienced BABIP regression and more hits fell against the Reds' porous defense (26th in Defensive Runs Saved, 20th in Outs Above Average).
Colorado has the defensive advantage in this series (16th in DRS, 14th in OAA), but will need to mind baseball's No. 1 baserunning team (Cincinnati at +12.4 BSR; Milwaukee second at +10.7) on the defensive end.
Pick: Rockies ML (+155)
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Rangers vs. Angels
By Tony Sartori
Texas hands the ball to right-hander Jon Gray, and he should be an excellent candidate to target for negative regression.
Despite posting a 3.92 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through 17 appearances on the mound this season, Gray owns a 4.65 xERA while ranking in the 12th percentile or lower among qualified pitchers in xBA allowed, average exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed.
Specifically, we will fade the right-hander in the strikeout prop market. He ranks in the league's bottom half in whiff and strikeout rates.
You can find his strikeout prop at 4.5 with the under returning plus-money, a total he has failed to surpass in each of his past eight starts.
The catch here is that Gray has typically had success in the strikeout department against Los Angeles. But the Halo lineup strikes out at an above-average rate against right-handed pitching.
Pick: Jon Gray Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)
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