MLB Best Bets: 3 Picks & Predictions for Monday Night
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Brenton Doyle.
As is typical on Mondays, we have a light Major League Baseball slate.
Still, our team is sharing three MLB BestBets, including three picks and predictions for Randy Vasquez and Jon Gray and a moneyline pick for Dodgers vs Rockies.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Picks & Predictions for Monday Night
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Monday slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 8:05 p.m. | ||
| 8:40 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Padres vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
San Diego hands the ball to right-hander Randy Vasquez, and he should be a good fade candidate.
Vasquez is 1-3 through eight starts this year with a 4.93 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse, as the right-hander ranks in the 17th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and barrel rate allowed.
Specifically, we are going to fade Vasquez in the strikeout market, as he ranks in the 29th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rate.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 3.5, a number he has failed to surpass in five of his eight starts this year. These woes are likely to continue against Philadelphia, a team that ranks seventh in the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Pick: Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+118)
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Mets vs. Rangers
By Cody Goggin
Jon Gray had a solid start to the season before winding up on the IL with a groin strain towards the end of May. He has been working his way back, first making a bullpen appearance and then pitching just three innings on June 12th.
Gray has a 2.17 ERA on the season but has a 4.19 xERA and 3.66 SIERA. He's been able to vastly outperform his peripheral numbers by posting an uncharacteristically low HR/FB ratio while stranding 80.5% of runners.
Among qualified pitchers, Gray ranks in the ninth percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 35th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 16th percentile in hard hit rate allowed. Among 105 pitchers with 60-plus innings this season, Gray ranks 98th in Stuff+ and 79th in Pitching+.
Today his opponent will be the New York Mets, who have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in MLB. The Mets rank ninth in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA. They also rank 10th in hard hit rate, sixth in barrel rate, and 12th in average exit velocity. This is an above-average offense by most counts and will prove a tough test for Gray.
Even without considering the fact that he may still have a limited workload, I project Gray to go under this total of 5.5 strikeouts. His median batters faced in starts this year is 22 and the actual reality may be lower with him still ramping up.
With 22 projected median batters faced, my model sets his total at 4.05 strikeouts with a median outcome of 4. I give him nearly a 70% chance of staying under 3.5 Ks, which represents a 21% edge over the current market price.
Pick: Jon Gray Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)
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Dodgers vs. Rockies
Mookie Betts was nailed with a fastball to the wrist in Sunday’s win over the Royals
There’s no timetable for his return.
How much do we downgrade the Dodgers lineup without him? 10%? 20%? More?
Regardless, I’m more inclined to fade James Paxton without Mookie at the top of the order.
Paxton is routinely mentioned as the most overvalued pitcher in the sport, with zero fastball velocity (93 on average), a shameful strikeout minus walk rate (1.2%), and advanced pitching model metrics in the toilet (74 Stuff+). However, he’s no longer the “most” overvalued, mainly because the negative regression train has pulled into Paxton station – he’s posted a 6.33 ERA over his past five starts, with 13 strikeouts to eight walks across 21 innings.
The Rockies aren’t good at much, and Cal Quantirll doesn’t give me much confidence on the mound.
But the Rockies are frisky, sporting a 14-17 record as a home ‘dog this year (+2.9 units, 9.4% ROI). Since 2005, a bettor would be up around 45 units betting the Rox every time they were a home ‘dog, making them the most profitable home underdog in our Bet Labs database.
I think they’re good at playing into the Coors Field variance. Behind Brenton Doyle (+5 OAA), Colorado sports a rock-solid outfield defense, which is so important when roaming Denver’s rangy outfield.
Whether you want to frame it as a Paxton fade, a Mookie injury fade, or a Rockies home underdog play, it’s worth betting Colorado on Monday.
Pick: Rockies ML (+148)
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
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