MLB Best Bets Tonight (July 2)
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Cease.
- Our MLB betting experts have turned in their MLB best bets tonight (July 2).
- They have picks for White Sox vs. Guardians and Padres vs. Rangers.
- Tonight's MLB best bets include an over/under, a player prop and a MLB moneyline pick.
After a mini three-game slate on Monday, we return to full Major League Baseball action on Tuesday.
Our staff is here to share MLB Best Bets tonight, including picks for White Sox vs Guardiansand Padres vs Rangers.
MLB Best Bets Tonight
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 8:05 p.m. | ||
| 8:05 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
White Sox vs. Guardians
By D.J. James
The Cleveland Guardians can hit righties, but on Tuesday, they will face Erick Fedde of the Chicago White Sox.
Fedde has been an excellent addition to the White Sox. The veteran righty has a 3.23 ERA and 3.48 xERA. He has drastically improved his walk rate to around 6%. In addition, his ground-ball rate is well above average, and he can limit hard contact.
Carlos Carrasco will pitch for the Cleveland Guardians. Carrasco was shaky to start the season, but he has posted two great starts in a row. Remember, he just has to keep the ball on the ground and can get by the White Sox hitters. He allowed three earned runs when he faced them in May, but I expect a better outing here.
The Guardians have a 116 wRC+ off of righties in the last month, but their lineup can be a tad top-heavy. Look for Fedde to get through the bulk of the power atop their lineup and throw a decent game.
The White Sox boast an 81 wRC+ behind a paltry walk rate and a high-ground ball rate.
The Guards have posted a 3.45 xFIP in relief since June 2. The White Sox have been moderately worse (4.25), but arms, like Michael Kopech and John Brebbia have looked sharper lately.
Look for the under to play and for hitting to be suppressed. Cleveland should notch a couple off of Chicago's pitching, but otherwise, the offense could be quiet.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120) | Play to 8 (-110)
Padres vs. Rangers
By Cody Goggin
Dylan Cease has been an ace this season for San Diego, but you wouldn’t know that from just his 3.84 ERA. His 3.40 xERA, 3.05 FIP and 3.08 SIERA tell a more accurate story.
Cease has 125 strikeouts over 98 1/3 innings pitched. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks in the 94th percentile in whiff rate, 92nd percentile in strikeout rate, and third among qualified pitchers in Stuff+.
The Rangers haven't been hitting this year, ranking 23rd in wRC+ and 19th in wOBA. Since the beginning of June, they rank 26th and 25th in the two categories.
Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound opposite Cease. I’m not necessarily looking to fade Eovaldi, as he has been solid this season, posting a 3.45 ERA, 3.81xERA, and 3.75 SIERA. However, the Padres have the better offense in this matchup by far, ranking fifth in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA.
I don’t believe that the Rangers should be slight favorites in a matchup where San Diego has the better offense and starting pitcher. The Padres have also had the better bullpen.
I love backing Cease here against an inferior offense, as he should be able to have a strong day and lead the undervalued Padres to a victory.
Pick: Padres ML (-105)
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By Tony Sartori
San Diego hands the ball to right-hander Dylan Cease, and he should be an excellent candidate to back.
This season, Cease is 7-6 through 17 starts with a 3.84 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even stronger, as the right-hander boasts a 3.40 xERA and .213 xBA allowed.
Specifically, we will back Cease in the strikeout market as he ranks in the 94th percentile in whiff rate and 92nd percentile in strikeout rate.
You can find his strikeout prop at 6.5, which he has surpassed in 11 of his past 16 outings.
This success will likely continue against Texas, a team with a fade-worthy 24.7% strikeout rate and 34.1% whiff rate through 85 combined career plate appearances against Cease.
Pick: Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
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