MLB Best Bets Today: Saturday MLB Betting Predictions
(Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) Pictured: Zac Gallen
The second half of the MLB season is underway and our MLB betting analysts have some Saturday MLB best bets.
There are 16 games on today's slate and after digging through MLB odds, our experts have come up with three MLB betting predictions.
So, keep reading as they detail their picks and break down today's MLB best bets below.
MLB Best Bets Today: Saturday MLB Betting Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mets vs. Marlins
By Tony Sartori
New York's owns most of the advantages in this game. Let's begin with the starting pitchers — Luis Severino against Roddery Munoz.
Severino outranks Munoz in wins, ERA, WHIP, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and walk rate. Meanwhile, the Mets' lineup outranks Miami's in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
The gaps in those rankings are wide.
While home-field is typically an advantage, New York's road win percentage far outweighs the Marlins' home win percentage. That just leaves the bullpen, which is the only edge Miami possesses.
With that said, the gap between the starting pitchers and lineups is too wide for that to concern me. Finally, I think there is more value in taking a shot on the Mets' run lie (-1.5) at +105 than laying -160 on the moneyline.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+105)
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Orioles vs. Rangers
By D.J. James
Max Scherzer may not be throwing at the same velocity as he was before his injury, but he has still been effective for the Texas Rangers. The future Hall of Famer has a 2.96 ERA against a 2.98 xERA, his average exit velocity is under 88 mph and his hard-hit rate is only 34.2%. He's striking out just below 22% of batters and only walking 3.8%.
His opponent will be Grayson Rodriguez and the Baltimore Orioles. Rodriguez looks to be a future ace and has a 3.88 ERA and a 3.90 xERA. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are just below average, but he is walking less than 8% of batters and striking out 26.7%.
The Rangers have been subpar against righties in the past month with a 97 wRC+, a 8.1% walk rate and a 20.8% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the Orioles own a 118 wRC+, a 7.9% walk rate and a 19.4% strikeout rate with the same parameters in place. That said, each of these pitchers has been able to dominate.
In addition, both bullpens carry sub-4.00 xFIPs, so look for this game to go under the total.
Baltimore has been able to hit righties, but not every pitcher is Scherzer.
Bet the under from 8 to 7.
Pick: Under 8 | Play to 7
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Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
By William Boor
The Diamondbacks finished the first half strong as they won 10 of their final 15 games before the All-Star Break. They then started the second half with a Friday afternoon win over the Cubs and will look to continue that momentum Saturday with their ace, Zac Gallen, on the mound.
Yes, Gallen got lit up in his final start of the first half, but I'm willing to trust the track record of a pitcher has spun plenty of gems for the Diamondbacks over the past several seasons. Additionally, Gallen doesn't need to be perfect in this spot. He simply needs to keep his team in the game and let the offense carry the load.
Arizona has scored five or more runs in six of its past seven games and I see no reason for that streak to stop against a struggling Kyle Hendricks.
The 34-year-old righty is 2-7 with a 6.78 ERA through 17 appearances (12 starts) this season. Hendricks' 4.98 xERA suggests he's been a bit unlucky, but that xERA is still in just the 14th percentile. Hendricks has given up five or more runs in six starts this season and his .290 xBA (fourth percentile) should give confidence to Arizona backers.
Hendricks ranks in the eighth percentile in whiff percentage and the 10th percentile in strikeout percentage, meaning Arizona should put plenty of balls in play. That's rarely a recipe for success for a pitcher, especially when the opposing offense is hot.
I trust Gallen to keep the Cubs in check and expect Arizona's bats to keep mashing. Bet the Diamondbacks to -150 on Saturday at Wrigley Field.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline | Play to -150
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