MLB Best Bets: 2 Sunday Picks & Predictions
(Photos: Getty Images) Pictured: Aaron Judge (left) and Framber Valdez (right).
There are 14 games on Sunday's MLB slate, but our MLB betting experts have focused in on predictions for two games, including a pick on the over/under for Braves vs. Yankees and a moneyline bet for Orioles vs. Astros.
Today's MLB best bets are below, so continue reading for Sunday's top two MLB picks.
MLB Best Bets: 2 Sunday Picks & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific Sunday MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1:35 p.m. | ||
| 2:10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Braves vs. Yankees
For the casual baseball fan, when you hear Yankees vs. Braves, you think superstar bats and high-powered offenses. I think that is creating an inflated number on the total here.
Let’s start with the Braves. Marcell Ozuna is obliterating the ball this season. But outside of Ozuna, Matt Olson is the only player with a wRC+ above 110 and he has still be pretty disappointing this season. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris are both hurt, and Olson, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies have all taken a big step back from last season.
The Braves have a ton of talent on paper, but on the field, this has been nothing more than a league-average offense all season.
When you look at the Yankees, Aaron Judge is the best hitter on the planet and Juan Soto has been terrific, but who else do you fear in this lineup? Over the last two weeks, this offense has been on a skid, falling to 14th in wRC+.
If you’re going to fade the Yankees offense, you want to do it against a left-handed pitcher. New York has been the best team in baseball against right-handed pitchers but ranks just 16th in wOBA against southpaws.
Max Fried has established himself as a Cy Young contender again and his elite ability to keep the ball on the ground and generate soft contact will limit a Yankees team that is always dangerous to take one deep.
While Nestor Cortes Jr. has been inconsistent this season, he has been brilliant at home. He has a 1.57 ERA in eight starts at Yankee Stadium and has held opponents scoreless in five outings in the Bronx.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+102)
Orioles vs. Astros
By Sean Paul
I’m honestly a bit surprised the Astros come into Sunday’s game as just -125 favorites with Framber Valdez on the mound opposed by Orioles starter Albert Suárez.
The main reasoning for my play here is backing a hot Astros lineup while fading Suárez before the market catches up to him pitching above his head. Suárez probably isn’t some complete fluke, but he has a real walk issue. The 34-year-old has walked 19 batters in 48 innings, and he walked five in 3.2 innings against the Yankees earlier this week. Suárez owns a strong 2.07 ERA but his 3.06 FIP and 3.77 xFIP indicate he won’t outperform Corbin Burnes much longer.
The top three hitters in the Astros lineup — Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez — have been a terror for Orioles pitching. Bregman is back on track, hitting .311 with five homers in his past 15 games, while Altuve and Alvarez are hitting like always. Plus, if Chas McCormick's two-homer game Saturday gets him rolling, then that's a major win for the Astros.
Valdez hasn’t quite developed into a Cy Young contender like many thought he would back in 2022. Walk issues and the occasional blowup outing halted Valdez’s development. He's currently at a 3.91 ERA with peripherals in similar areas. The key is throwing strikes, leading to a plethora of ground balls (98th percentile in ground-ball rate).
It won’t be an easy test for Valdez against this young, exciting Orioles squad, but I like him more than Suárez here.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (-125 | Play to -140)
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