MLB Best Bets: Wednesday Picks & Predictions
Via New York Yankees/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodón #55 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium on June 5, 2024, in New York, New York.
The MLB regular season continues on Wednesday with a full slate of games in the evening before July Fourth on Thursday.
Our staff is here to share two Wednesday MLB Best Bets, including picks and predictions for Reds vs Yankees and Mets vs Nationals on Wednesday, July 3.
MLB Best Bets: Wednesday Picks & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Wednesday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:45 p.m. | ||
| 7:05 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mets vs. Nationals
By Tony Sartori
Washington hands the ball to left-hander Mitchell Parker on Wednesday, and he is due for regression. Despite a 3.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, Parker possesses a 3.95 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate.
We are going to capitalize on this expected regression by fading Parker in the prop market. He ranks in the 27th percentile in Whiff Rate and 32nd percentile in Strikeout Rate.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5 via DraftKings, a total he has failed to surpass in three of his past five starts. These woes are likely to continue against the Mets’ batters, who rank seventh in the league in Strikeout Rate.
Pick: Mitchell Parker Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120 | Play to -125)
Reds vs. Yankees
By D.J. James
Left-hander Carlos Rodón is a solid starting pitcher, but his 4.42 ERA and 4.62 xERA are both concerning. Since turning 30 last season, he has allowed an Average Exit Velocity over 90 MPH. His Ground-ball Rate ranks in the 17th percentile, and he is allowing hard contact often (16th percentile in Hard-hit Rate).
His Strikeout Rate has also plummeted since 2022, even if he has limited walks to under 7%.
He will face the lefty Andrew Abbott and the Cincinnati Reds. Abbott has a 3.41 ERA and a nearly identical 3.48 xERA along with an Average Exit Velocity under 87.7 MPH and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 88th percentile.
He has struck out fewer than 20% of batters and has a Walk Rate north of 8%, but otherwise, he is the better starting pitcher in this duel.
The Yankees usually outpace the Reds at the plate, but in the last month against lefties, the Yanks have a 114 wRC+, and the Reds are right behind them with a 110 wRC+. The Yankees tend to walk more often, but the Reds actually strike out less.
In relief, the Yankees have a 4.53 xFIP, while the Red have a drastically-improved 3.69 xFIP since June 3. New York’s bullpen has struggled immensely with free passes, with a Walk Rate over 10% in the last month. On the other hand, the Reds are only walking 7.1% of batters in that span.
Since the Yankees are priced like Rodón was pitching in 2022, they are overvalued at home. Take the more consistent option in Abbott and the equivalent bats against lefties in the Reds. Bet them from +150 to +120 on the moneyline.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +150 (Play to +120)
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