With the Major League Baseball season winding down, we have a full slate of games on Tuesday, September 24. Our MLB betting experts have looked over today's MLB odds and identified the best bets on the board.
So, let's dive right into the action and go over today's MLB best bets. Tuesday's MLB picks and predictions are below, including three picks in a key National League wild-card matchup between the Mets and Braves.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:20 p.m. | |
| 7:20 p.m. | |
| 7:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James's Mets vs Braves Best Bet: Bet The Home Team
By D.J. James
José Quintana has been solid for the New YorkMets and will get the start in a crucial game against the Atlanta Braves. Quintana has a 3.74 ERA with a 4.50 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 88 mph, and his hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate are both above average. However, he has a tendency to walk hitters (8.8%) and doesn't strike out many (18.1%).
His opponent will be Spencer Schwellenbach, a former top prospect. Schwellenbach has a 3.61 ERA and a 3.45 xERA. He doesn't induce as many grounders as Quintana, but does boast a 4.9% walk rate and a 26.3% strikeout rate. He can also get hitters to chase and whiff.
At the plate, the Braves have crushed lefties. They have a 136 wRC+, a 6.8% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate against them over the past month.
The Mets have been above average against righties in the past month, but have a 104 wRC+, a 7.5% walk rate and a 25.2% strikeout rate with those parameters in place.
In relief, the Braves have been stellar with a 3.35 xFIP over the past month and multiple options to pitch behind Schwellenbach.
The Mets have a 2.56 xFIP with an exceptional strikeout rate. However, Quintana likely won't throw deep into this game.
Bet the home team to win this one and take the Braves from -130 to -155.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-130)
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Nick Martin's Mets vs Braves Predictions, Picks: New York Has Some Advantages
By Nick Martin
For 35 games, the Mets have played better than .700 baseball and, as a result, control their own destiny at the start of a critical series against the Braves.
In those 35 games, the Mets hold a 3.00 team ERA and have scored 7.9 runs per game. Luis Severino has started seven of those 35 games, pitching to a 2.64 ERA across 44 1/3 innings.
Severino also holds a 3.54 xFIP with a K-BB% of 19.4 in that span. His Stuff+ (113) and Pitching+ (107) ratings have also improved from earlier in the season.
The Braves are one of two teams to hold a superior ERA (2.80) to the Mets since August 16. Spencer Schwellenbach has done his part to keep the Braves in the wild-card race, pitching to a 3.00 ERA over his past seven outings. Schwellenbach has pitched to a 3.59 xFIP with a K-BB% of 19.1% in that span, and a 110 Pitching+ rating.
There’s a case to be made that Schwellenbach is the superior starter in this matchup, and he's backed by a Braves bullpen that has pitched to a 2.97 ERA and a league-best 3.43 xFIP over the past 30 days.
The Mets lineup has been more productive than Atlanta's in the season’s second half. Since the All-Star break, the Mets have hit to a 110 wRC+ of 110. Atlanta holds a 107 wRC+ in that span.
Luisangel Acuna certainly isn’t Francisco Lindor and will surely slow down in a larger sample, but has done a good job helping fill the void thus far, posting a 1.228 OPS with a .523 xSLG.
The Mets look to be at less of a disadvantage in this matchup than their +120 price tag suggests, so I see value in backing New York at anything better than +110.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+110)
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Tony Sartori's Mets vs Braves Player Prop Pick: Back The Rookie Hurler
By Tony Sartori
The Atlanta Braves hand the ball to right-handed rookie Spencer Schwellenbach on Tuesday evening, and he should serve as an excellent candidate to back. Schwellenbach boasts a 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 19 starts this season, and his underlying metrics are even stronger.
The rookie hurler boasts a 3.45 xERA and ranks in the top quarter of the league in average exit velocity, walk rate and barrel rate. Specifically, we will back Schwellenbach in the strikeout prop market as he also ranks in the 96th percentile in chase rate, 72nd percentile in whiff rate and 74th percentile in strikeout rate.
You can find his strikeout prop at 5.5, which he has surpassed in 12 of his past 16 starts. One of those outings came against the New York Mets, in when Schwellenbach allowed zero runs on just two hits while fanning 11 across seven innings of work.
Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138)
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