We have a full slate of Major League Baseball games on Wednesday, September 25, and our MLB betting experts have also looked over today's MLB odds to identify their MLB best bets.
Let's get right into the action and see today's MLB best bets for Padres vs Dodgers.
MLB Best Bets & Wednesday Picks, Predictions — 9/25
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Wednesday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Brewers vs Pirates Best Bet: Our Favorite Player Prop Bet
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday evening, and he should serve as an excellent candidate to back.
Milwaukee's ace is 11-8 through 31 appearances on the mound this season with a 3.69 ERA and 1.23 ERA. His analytical profile is also strong, as Peralta ranks in the league's top half in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Specifically, we will back Peralta in the strikeout prop market. Among qualified pitchers, Peralta ranks in the 87th percentile in whiff rate and 81st percentile in strikeout rate.
His strikeout prop is 5.5, a total he has surpassed in 21 of his 31 starts this year.
This success will likely continue against the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team with the league's seventh-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
This current Pirates lineup possesses a fade-worthy 26.1% strikeout rate and 31.4% whiff rate through 88 combined career plate appearances against Peralta.
Pick: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130) | Playable at number
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D.J. James's Padres vs Dodgers Best Bet: Chef's Kiss
By D.J. James
Dylan Cease vs Jack Flaherty in a game with massive postseason implications is "Chef’s Kiss."
Cease has a 3.42 ERA and a 3.27 xERA for the San Diego Padres this year. He also boasts an 89.1 mph Average Exit Velocity and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 51st percentile. However, he has an 8.4% walk rate against a 29.8% strikeout rate.
Flaherty has a 3.10 ERA and a 3.37 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.1 mph, and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 72nd percentile. His walk rate is exceptional at 5.6%, and his strikeout rate is above 30%.
At the dish, the Padres have a 126 wRC+, an 8.4% walk rate and a 17.2% strikeout rate against righties over the past month.
Over the past month, the Dodgers have a 128 wRC+, an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.1% strikeout rate against righties.
These lineups are even, but in relief, the Dodgers have a 4.46 xFIP against San Diego’s 3.62 xFIP over the past month. The Padres are striking out more hitters and boast a better walk rate.
There is no reason for the Padres to be this undervalued in this divisional rivalry. Yes, they are on the road, but that is the only thing that may even out their edge in relief.
So, take the Padres from +122 to -105.
Pick: Padres ML (+120) | Play to ML (-105)
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