Welcome to another episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast!
Our baseball betting experts have submitted two predictions for today's MLB slate, featuring a moneyline pick for Rays vs. Yankees and a first five innings prop for Reds vs. Braves.
Listen to the latest episode below or continue reading for their MLB bets for Monday, July 22.
MLB Bets From the Payoff Pitch Podcast: Monday, July 22
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 p.m. | Yankees F5 ML (-175) + Yankees ML (-165) |
  | 7:20 p.m. | Reds F5 ML (+120) |
Yankees +F5 ML (-175) + Yankees ML (-165)
Rays vs. Yankees | 1:05 p.m. ET | MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
I think this line is discounted a bit because the Yankees have played so poorly of late.
The Rays offense has improved by leaps and bounds over the last month and were 6th in wRC+ and 2nd against lefties over that span. They also took care of Carlos Rodon before the All-Star break.
I think, given the break though, Rodon will come into this start healthier than anytime over the past couple seasons going back to 2022. He is still working to get his command back and as we know that is the last thing to return when coming off an injury. The velocity bump in his last start is a good indication that he is almost back to the guy we saw before his Tommy John surgery.
I like the projection play here and the positive signs from Rodon, so like these numbers played up to -175 for the first five innings moneyline and -165 for the full game.
Reds F5 ML (+120)
Reds vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET | MLB.TV
I have been waiting for things to click with Hunter Greene on the mound this year, and it looks like that has finally happened with his 3.09 ERA.
The issue that has remained with him has been the long ball which has come down to earth this season while halving his barrel rate and a sub-.200 xBA. He has become one of the best pitchers in the National League and the Braves offense leaves a lot to be desired.
Ozzie Albies left the game yesterday with a fractured wrist, and for a lineup that already struggles on the back-end, they will be hard-pressed to find that missing production.
In the last 30-days, the Atlanta offense is 27th in WRC+ against righties while the Reds are at seventh. Reynaldo Lopez is on the bump for the Braves and while he has a 1.88 actual ERA, his xERA is 4.2. I am playing the negative regression game with Lopez and I think it's coming soon. The Reds offense has been playing much better of late, so I like Cincinnati at +120 of the first five innings.
