MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (Monday, Sept. 21)

Brewers vs. Reds Odds

Odds as of Sunday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

With one week left in the season, this series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds will most likely decide a playoff spot. Both teams are .500 and tied for the final playoff spot in the National League. Each will send its No. 2 starting pitcher to the mound on Monday in hopes of starting off the series with a win.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee's lineup has been below average all season, checking in with a .313 wOBA and 92 wEC+. However, they've been solid over the past two weeks, accumulating a .339 wOBA and 110 wRC+. Ryan Braun has seemingly found the fountain of youth over the past 10 games, hitting for a .400 average, including five homers and 15 RBIs.

The offensive success of the Brewers lately has mainly come against fastballs and changeups, which happen to be Luis Castillo's main two pitches. So, they will have a decent matchup on Monday night.

Brewers Probable Starter 

Brandon Woodruff, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Woodruff has been fantastic this season, posting a 3.45 ERA and a 3.54 xFIP. He's been a strikeout machine with a 10.80 K/9 rate and mainly done it with his fastball.

Woodruff has an elite-level fastball, sitting just above 96 mph on average and can top out at 100 mph. He's been keeping hitters at bay, allowing only a .176 average and producing a 33.7% whiff rate. Woodruff's entire arsenal of pitches has been fantastic this year, but his slider has been his pitch. It's quite literally been un-hittable, as he has allowed only two hits on 119 pitches and produced a 45.5% whiff rate.

The Reds have struggled versus right-handed pitching this season, so Woodruff will have a good matchup against their lineup.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati has been below-average offensively this season, accumulating a .311 wOBA and 90 wRC+. In fact, Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos are the only players with a wOBA above .350. They've also struggled against right-handed pitching, checking in with a .316 wOBA and 93 wRC+, which ranks 17th in MLB.

The Reds have been somewhat of a one-trick pony this season, as their only real success has come against fastballs. I expect Woodruff to feature his off speed pitches often against the opposition's lineup.

Reds Probable Starter

Luis Castillo, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Castillo is on his way to becoming one of the best young pitchers in the game. He has an electric fastball that tops out at 100 mph, but it's been touched up a bit this season. He's allowed a .343 wOBA to opponents. He's struggled with his sinker as well, allowing a .300 average to opposing hitters.

Castillo though really excels with his slider, which has allowed a .143 average and produced a 39.3% whiff rate. As you can see, it has some sick drop to it.

The Brewers have been hitting both fastballs and changeups well as of late, so Castillo will have a precarious matchup against their lineup.

Bullpens

Cincinnati's bullpen has been average this season, posting a 4.78 ERA and a 4.51 xFIP, which both rank 14th in MLB. Milwaukee counters with the league's best bullpen, ranking first in terms of xFIP. Not only do the Brewers have Josh Hader, they now have one of best set up men in baseball in the form of Devin Williams, who has the nastiest changeup in baseball.

The Brewers will have the advantage in the bullpen department during this series.

Projections and Pick

The Woodruff versus Castillo and offensive matchups in this game are pretty much even. So, I think this game is going to come down to the bullpens. Since the Brewers have the advantage in that department, I don't think they should be underdogs in this game. I am going to back Milwaukee at +117 (DraftKings) and would bet the underdog down to +105.

Pick: Brewers +117

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