Thursday MLB NRFI Betting Odds, Pick: Zack Greinke’s Outstanding First-Inning Record Creates Value

Thursday MLB NRFI Betting Odds, Pick: Zack Greinke’s Outstanding First-Inning Record Creates Value article feature image
Credit:

Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Greinke.

Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.


Tigers vs. Royals No Runs First Inning (-110)

MatchupTiger vs. Royals
First Pitch7:10 p.m. ET
Books AvailableBetMGM

On Thursday night, we'll ride the cold bats of two American League Central teams — and one team that is yet to achieve a YRFI in 2022.

Zack Greinke has NRFI Hall of Fame potential, which was on display on Opening Day. In 2021, the right-hander posted an outstanding 26-6 NRFI, which was paired with a perfect 15-0 record at home. He held opponents to a .222 batting average the first time through the batting order last year.

Since the 2020 season when Zack gets the ball in the first game of a series, he has a 11-1 NRFI record.

In a game with a total less than or equal to 8.5 in 2021, he was a perfect 13-0. If we take that situation back to the start of the '20 campaign, Greinke holds an outstanding 19-2 NRFI record.

Here's how the projected top of the Tigers lineup has fared in its career against Greinke:

  • Austin Meadows: 1-for-9 (.111)
  • Robbie Grossman: 2-for-14 (.143)
  • Jonathan Schoop: 1-for-3 (.300)
  • Javier Baez: 3-for-7 (.429)
  • Jeimer Candelario: 2-for-2 (1.000)

Baez has an injured thumb and is day-to-day, while Candelario is slumping to start the season, hitting just .143 entering Thursday. On top of this, the Tigers are a bottom-tier hitting team so far this season, hitting just .214 as a team.

Starting for Detroit is an up-and-coming NRFI great in Casey Mize. Last season, the former No. 1 overall draft pick had a 23-8 NRFI record while holding batters to a .230 average the first time through the order.

Mize started 2022 with a YRFI, but his track record still indicates first-inning value. In 2021, he held his own on the road with a 12-4 NRFI record. Going a step further, Mize was 7-2 to the NRFI when pitching on the road with a total that was less than or equal to 8.5. Also, coming off a loss, Mize is 15-3 to the good that is NRFI.

Not all Royals hitters have history in the majors against Mize, but here's how those who do have fared:

  • Whit Merrifield: 3-for-15 (.200)
  • Andrew Benintendi: 3-for-9 (.333)
  • Carlos Santana: 1-for-13 (.077)

We have two strong right-handers with positive records toward NRFI success.

As always, six outs to glory…

Get all of Shayne Trail's NRFI/YRFI bets instantly in The Action Network app.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.