It's a new week here in the baseball world, and we've got a stacked night slate on Monday with every team in play.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we're expecting the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather, talk about negative regression candidates you can fade tonight, and end with a little recap of which hitters are the hottest entering the week.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for Monday, July 22.
Notable Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups:
Chris Taylor vs. Blake Snell (LHP): This one is more interesting than anything. Taylor has been awful this season (.156 average), and in 30 at-bats against Snell, he has often lost the matchup (.233 average). But he does have three home runs — most of any hitter against any other starter on this slate — and a pair of doubles.
Will Smith vs. Blake Snell (LHP): Be cautious when fading Snell, who has finally looked true to form post-rehab stint. But Smith is another batter with a pair of home runs against him in 28 at-bats. In general, Smith fares well vs. left-handed pitching.
Jose Ramirez vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP): Despite Skubal being the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young at the All-Star break, Ramirez has found plenty of success in his 17 at-bats. The switch-hitting Ramirez is hitting .412 against Skubal with a pair of doubles and a triple. He has yet to leave the yard, however.
William Contreras vs. Mitch Keller (RHP): Contreras has found sustained success against his division rival Keller. In 17 at-bats, Contreras is hitting .353 with three doubles and a home run.
J.D. Martinez vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP): Martinez has struggled late for the Mets but gets a plus matchup against the contact-throwing Chirinos on Monday. Martinez has 13 at-bats against Chirinos and has a triple along with a .308 average to show for.
Highest Expected Home Run Boost Due to Weather
The most significant edge from a home run standpoint per the RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge system comes out in Minnesota. While it’s just four-mph winds to left center, it’ll be 81 degrees around first pitch. Based on a 59-game sample of similar conditions, we’ve seen a +15.6% increase in home runs hit.
Bailey Ober takes the mound for the Twins against the Phillies, and while he’s been a reliable arm (3.63 xERA, .229 xBA, career-best 26.5 K%), his home run woes remain. The right-hander ranks in the seventh percentile among qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate (33.3%) and has a double-digit barrel rate — the latter ranks in the bottom 20% of all qualified pitchers.
Especially in hitter-friendly conditions, this can lend itself to home run problems. Ober has allowed a home run in 10 of his past 13 games. Righties hit Ober slightly better (.754 OPS vs. .648).
Still, I think Bryce Harper holds some value at +340. We’ve seen Trea Turner enter the All-Star break scorching hot, and he remains a viable option at +400. Turner is the Phillies best hitter vs. RHP (160 wRC+) this season, while Harper leads the squad in slugging (.568).
Opposite Ober is Ranger Suarez, who has looked more mortal in his last few starts. The southpaw has allowed 15 runs over his past 15 2/3 innings, including three dingers.
Suarez is a heavy ground-ball pitcher (54.6%) and does limit barrels (5.1%) at an elite rate. So I would be generally cautious here — though we’ve seen his velocity down and some cracks lately.
Before those three starts, Suarez had allowed just three home runs in his previous 10.
The Twins have crushed left-handed pitching of late, though Carlos Correa joined Royce Lewis on the injured list — two of Minnesota’s three best from a wRC+ standpoint.
If you want to fade Suarez in the HR department, consider someone like Byron Buxton (+430), who has a 158 wRC+ and .239 ISO. Oddly enough, Carlos Santana (+725) leads the Twins in HRs against southpaws with six.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
Negative Regression Party?
Perhaps most notable on this Monday slate are the litter of negative regression candidates taking the mound.
The three starting pitchers with the largest difference between expected and actual ERA take the mound tonight. Those three are Hogan Harris (-2.38), Reynaldo Lopez (-2.35) and David Peterson (-2.26).
Let’s start with Harris. He has struggled to generate any swings and misses, but opponents have been unable to take advantage. He has a sub-6% K-BB rate and ranks in the bottom 10% of qualified pitchers in xBA, chase rate and xERA.
What is particularly concerning is that he also gives up plenty of fly balls. Pitching in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum helps (two HR in 27 1/3 innings), and that is where he takes the mound tonight.
But if you think some damage could be dealt in that big park, look toward Yordan Alvarez (177 wRC+, .227 ISO vs. LHP) fresh off a cycle or Jose Altuve (141 wRC+) to do some damage. Quietly, Jake Meyers has been strong in that Astros middle of the lineup as well (127 wRC+, .213 ISO).
As for Lopez, the relief-to-starter switch has been an enormous success for Atlanta. He owns a sub-two ERA through the All-Star break, but that should come back around in the later months. Lopez gives up a heavy dosage of fly balls and has allowed his highest hard-hit rate since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. His strikeout rate has dropped 5% in this new role, and he's sustained unsustainable numbers — like a 0.56 HR/9 and 87% strand rate — thus far.
He gets the free-swinging Reds offense on Monday. Elly De La Cruz has crushed right-handed pitching this season (132 wRC+, .256 ISO). The Reds leader in HRs against righties has been Jeimer Candelario (110 wRC+, 15 HRs), who is much better swinging from the left side of the plate. He has a 52% extra-base hit rate this season in that split.
David Peterson is a more intriguing arm. His xERA sits in the mid-fives and he’s really limited damage this season (83% strand rate, 0.82 HR/9) despite not generating strikeouts. I think he will see more whiffs in the coming weeks — he posted a double-digit K/9 mark across 55 games between 2022 and 2023 — but he’s made necessary adjustments to be a strong pitching option for New York.
I’d be more cautious with Peterson, who not only will be playing in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, but also owns a 55.6% ground ball rate this season (93rd percentile). Even with a hard-hit rate nearing 45%, most of that has been pounded into the dirt.
Other options you can consider fading based on negative regression include Tyler Anderson (-1.44) and Michael Lorenzen (-1.3), though the latter does get a date with the White Sox on Monday night.
Who’s Hot?
Looking at the rolling xwOBA leaderboard, here are some players trending in the right direction over their last 50 plate appearances.
Lawrence Butler has been on an absolute tirade at the plate and has seen his average skyrocket from .179 to .237 in July. The rookie is hitting .385 this month with seven home runs — highlighted by that three-homer game against Philadelphia — and 22 RBI. He enters Monday vs. Spencer Arrighetti with two or more hits in each of his past four games.
It’s no surprise that Francisco Lindor is on this list as well. Since the move to the leadoff spot, Lindor has been incredible at the plate for New York. Lindor's hit .333 with an OPS of over 1.000 in the past two weeks. He gets a plus matchup against Yonny Chirinos, who has struggled against left-handed hitters (.353 avg, .988 OPS).
I wish Julio Rodriguez, who just hit a home run off Tyler Anderson before the break, was playing tonight. But it seems he will miss the game after crashing into the wall on Sunday. It finally seemed as though he was turning the corner.
It feels weird saying that Marcell Ozuna is red hot because it feels like he has been all season, but after just five home runs in June, the power-hitting righty has seven in 39 fewer at-bats this month. Ozuna hit two on Saturday and has a hit in each of his last nine. He also two or more hits in eight of those nine. Unfortunaley, it's a tough matchup against the fire-throwing righty Hunter Greene.
