The weekend is finally here and every team is back in action after a light Thursday slate. We've got a handful of divisional bouts on tap and a couple of interleague series beginning on the west coast in what should be a fun weekend of baseball.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Friday slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest over the last couple of weeks.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props on Friday, August 2nd.
DiSturco's Top Head-To-Head Matchups
Aaron Judge vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP): Judge has crushed Gausman in 47 plate appearances, hitting .297 with five home runs and a pair of doubles (64% extra-base hit rate). He has also walked eight times.
Manny Machado vs. Austin Gomber (LHP): Be a bit weary of Machado here. While he’s logged 32 plate appearances against the replacement-level Gomber, Machado is hitting just .179 (1 HR).
Juan Soto vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP): I mentioned Judge’s walks against Gausman. Well, Soto has faced the righty 29 times. He’s walked in 11 plate appearances (45.8%). It makes sense, with Soto hitting .539 against Gausman with a home run.
Salvador Perez vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP): Not many people have succeeded against Skubal, but Perez is hitting .333 across 24 plate appearances. He has hit three home runs and two doubles against the southpaw.
Dansby Swanson vs. Erik Fedde (RHP): The debut for Fedde in St. Louis is here post-deadline. While Swanson has only singles against the right-hander, he is hitting .364 across 24 appearances.
Yandy Diaz vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP): Speaking of debuts, after the Astros traded a haul of prospects for Kikuchi, the southpaw is set to start tonight against his former divisional rival Rays. In 22 plate appearances, Diaz is hitting .278 against Kikuchi with a home run.
Ha-Seong Kim vs. Austin Gomber (LHP): Unlike Machado, Kim has seen Gomber extremely well in 22 plate appearances. Five of his six hits against Gomber have gone for doubles, and he’s hitting .333 against the southpaw.
Giancarlo Stanton vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP): Is this the game we see an extra-base hit from Stanton post-injury? In 21 plate appearances against Gausman, Stanton is hitting .368 with a pair of home runs and a double. Also, funny enough, he has struck out in nine of the 12 outs he’s made (75%).
Ballpark With The Expected Home Run Boost Due to Weather
The biggest expected edge when it comes to home runs comes out in San Diego, even with the wind blowing in at roughly 6 miles per hour. It’ll be 75 and sunny at first pitch between a pair of NL West foes, with an expected +32% boost in home runs.
Now this is a 37-game sample size, so it’s not a large one by any means — for example, the Blue Jays vs. Yankees have a +10.8% boost in home runs expected based on a 167-game sample size. But this also happens to be a great matchup for opposing hitters.
Let’s start with the aforementioned Gomber, who gets a familiar Padres lineup. While Kim is a doubles machine against the southpaw, I would not be surprised to see him find the outfield seats on Friday night. He is +870 to hit a home run.
Jurickson Profar (+680) is another name continually disrespected in the betting market. He is the best Padres hitter against southpaws (187 wRC+) and has a team-best seven home runs (.222 ISO). While he hasn’t homered off Gomber in his career, he is 5-for-12.
You can never count Machado out despite his struggles against Gomber. He has been swinging a hot bat of late — .364, 3 HR in the past seven days — so if you want to plate it safe, taking him at +420 is not an awful idea. And every time a lefty is on the mound, I’d be remiss not to mention Kyle Higashioka (+500), who is secretly No. 1 on the team in isolated power (.281) against LHP.
On the opposite side, Randy Vasquez takes the mound for SD. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in xBA (.316) and struggled to strike out the opposition (14.8 K%). While he hasn’t given up a home run in his last three starts, Vasquez is prone to barrels and fly balls, making him a sleeper candidate to struggle here.
Ezequiel Tovar (+600) remains one of the league’s underrated young hitters. He has crushed the ball over the last 15 days—.377 average, 4 HRs—and is in the top three on the team in wRC+ (105) against righties. He also has the second-most homers on the team against right-handed pitching.
While he has been ice-cold at the plate, I also like Ryan McMahon (+550) in this matchup. Despite the slump, he remains above average against right-handed pitching (102 wRC+) and has 10 home runs.
Vasquez struggles against left-handed hitters, allowing a 1.036 OPS and .395 average across 129 at-bats.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
White-Hot Hitters
Jorge Soler is finally heating up, and his switch to Atlanta might be the extra push needed in what has been a down year offensively for the Braves. Based on xwOBA over the last 50 plate appearances, he is the new No. 1, dethroning Vladdy.
Valente Bellozo will be called up to start for the Marlins. He’s made two spots in the majors this season (10 IP, 3.86 xFIP) but has struggled in Triple-A. One area of concern has been home runs (1.82 HR/9 in 34 innings), and he projects as a mid-1s type of pitcher in that category.
Bellozo is a fly-ball pitcher—32.4% in Triple-A, 31% across 10 big league innings—which plays into Soler’s strengths well. As the Atlanta offense has heated up, there are three Braves on this list, and that doesn’t include Matt Olson, who has homered five times in his last six games.
Orlando Arcia has been red-hot at the plate, hitting .333 with a .976 OPS (3 HRs) over the last 15 days. The same can be said for Travis d’Arnaud, who has a pair of home runs and a .409 average in that span.
After Bellozo, a depleted bullpen of below-average arms awaits. Atlanta hit three home runs in yesterday's series opener.
As for Vladdy Jr., how do you not walk this guy? The Blue Jays offense around him has struggled, but Guerrero has not missed a beat and is putting up video game numbers. Over the last 15 days, Guerrero is hitting .489 with a 1.617 OPS. He has seven home runs!
Remember when everyone was nervous about Guerrero’s slump? Well he’s but that to rest and some.
Marcus Stroman takes the mound for the Yankees tonight against Guerrero. While he has struggled a lot, he is a near-50% ground ball pitcher. So be weary here. But that being said, Stroman has allowed 2+ home runs in three of his last six games.
We talked about Judge’s success against Gausman. I don’t like to take previous plate appearances into account — mostly because you’d have to dissect the balls put into play—but Verdugo has just one hit in 20 at-bats against the right-hander.
But the lefty has seemingly found his swing back and remains a threat in a red-hot Yankees lineup.
