MLB Betting Preview: Hitter Props, Picks for Wednesday (July 31)
Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)
We have a ton of afternoon baseball on the diamond today, and it's a stacked slate with everyone in action. Two games start in the 12 o'clock window and we go all the way through the 9:45 p.m. ET first pitch between the Athletics and Giants.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Wednesday slate.
A side note: I tried to stay away from the earlier games — especially the noon starts — just for the sake of shelf life.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitchers and opposing hitters.
I'll also break down the game in which we expect the biggest boost in props/home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest entering the week.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props on Wednesday, July 31.
Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Manny Machado vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP): Machado has absolutely crushed Kershaw in his career. In 41 plate appearances, Machado is hitting .325 with four home runs against the southpaw.
Andrew Vaughn vs. Brady Singer (RHP): The White Sox are in complete disarray right now, and I’m not sure you can bet on players to perform amid this losing streak. But Vaughn does have strong numbers in 33 plate appearances against Singer — he's hitting .281 with a home run.
Donovan Solano vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP): Donnie Barrels, fresh off a walk-off single, has also fared well against Kershaw. In 32 plate appearances, Solano is hitting .400. While he doesn't have a home run, Solano does have four doubles.
Jeff McNeil vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP): Dating back to his Miami days, plenty of Mets have seen Lopez. McNeil has been the best, hitting .455 across 25 plate appearances. He has one home run.
Brandon Nimmo vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP): The ol’ lefty-on-righty struggles from Lopez continue here against Nimmo. In 32 plate appearances, Nimmo is hitting .310 against Lopez (1 HR). Nimmo is slumping, so be careful, as he’s batting .119 over the last 15 days.
Kevin Pillar vs. Kyle Freeland (RHP): The Angels put on a stellar performance by not trading Pillar at the trade deadline in his final season in the MLB, but at least we get a great matchup against Freeland. Pillar is hitting .500 with a pair of home runs against the southpaw in 15 plate appearances.
Rafael Devers vs. George Kirby (RHP): It’s just 11 plate appearances for Devers, but he's dominated Kirby. The lefty is hitting .500 with a home run and a double.
Shohei Ohtani vs. Dylan Cease (RHP): The last one I’ll throw out is Ohtani, who's faced Cease 11 times in his career. He has three hits (.273 average) with two of them leaving the ballpark.
Huge Home Run Boost Due to Weather in St. Louis?
While the Phillies and Mets games should both see a huge increase in home runs based on RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projections, I chose to circle the Rangers vs. Cardinals based on the slightly later start time.
As you can see, the wind is blowing out six mph to dead center at 95-degree temperatures. Based on a 94-game sample size, there’s an expected +18% home run boost in St. Louis.
Andrew Heaney takes the mound for Texas, and he's a prototypical fly ball pitcher. While he's been much better on the mound since mid-June, Heaney remains a home run liability at times. In his last 14 games, Heaney has allowed a home run in eight of those (57%).
The southpaw’s hard-hit rate (40.7%) is down from last season and it ranks in the 33rd percentile of all pitchers.
Tommy Pham (+450) made his Cardinals debut yesterday and hit a grand slam against a lefty. He has a .926 OPS against southpaws this season and has a good look at continuing that streak.
Also, look toward Willson Contreras (194 wRC+) to do some damage. He's the Cardinals’ lefty killer (.277 ISO). Contreras is +330 to homer tonight.
Opposite Heaney is Cardinals rookie right-hander Michael McGreevy, who's making his major league debut. Most projection outlets pin McGreevy as a high ground ball pitcher with around a one HR/9.
Obviously, it’s never easy to project how a rookie will perform, but Corey Seager (+360) has mashed right-handed pitching this season and is always a good look (145 wRC+, .230 ISO).
Nathaniel Lowe (+800) has found his way inside the top 10 in my "who’s hot?" category. He has strong numbers against righties as well (119 wRC+).
Who’s Hot?
As I mentioned, Lowe has found his way inside the top 10 based on his last 50 plate appearances. Over the last 15 days, the lefty slugger is hitting .342 with three home runs and a 1.095 OPS.
I mention Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+475) and all of his success at the plate — and strong numbers vs. Grayson Rodriguez. Over the last 15 days, Guerrero is hitting .512 with seven home runs. Taking a look at the Blue Jays' lineup, it’s a shock he doesn’t get walked every time.
But if the O’s attack him, he’s never a bad look the way he’s seeing the baseball. He’s seeing mailboxes instead of the baseball, just like Richie in Benchwarmers during his first home run.
Ezequiel Tovar continues to mash at the plate and is really one of the best young hitters in baseball. He's hitting .324 with a 1.198 OPS over the last 15 days and draws a favorable matchup against Angels right-hander Davis Daniel, who's given up three home runs in his last two starts.
I mentioned the Yankees-Phillies game having a big home run boost as well (+29.3% HRs based on a 104-game sample).
I can’t blame you for wanting to take Aaron Judge at any point based on the way he’s swinging, but don’t be surprised if he gets the Barry Bonds treatment and is walked every time he’s at the plate.
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