Sometimes in sports betting, you need to be brave. Betting on a -1000 favorite is easy, but it's certainly not brave nor a long-term formula for success. Instead, it's the hardest things that are oftentimes the right choices … much like in real life.
Come for the sports betting advice, stay for the philosophy.
I've stumbled upon a betting system that works particularly well in the second half of the season that is definitely going to scare some folks away. It's not for the faint of heart, that's for sure.
Only looking at games 82-162, you're going to want to bet on really bad teams playing really good teams. Sounds stupid, doesn't it? Luckily, science is on my side.
Per Bet Labs, teams with a record of .409 or worse have posted a 10.5% ROI against teams with a record of .600 or better. The record itself isn't pretty at just a 39.5% cash rate, but these games are going to often be really lopsided in terms of betting percentages, which can lead to inflated lines.
In fact, there are more than 300 games in this sample size and the highest percentage of bets the bad team has gotten is exactly 50%. More than 75% of the time, the bad team has 30% of bets or less.
If you are shaking in your boots just thinking about betting on this system (there were 13 matches on the Orioles last September), perhaps look for this as a kicker — line movement.
- Line stays the same or moves toward good team: 56-107 (+6.4 units, +3.9% ROI)
- Moves toward bad team: 70-86 (+27.0 units, +17.3% ROI)
When sharps are on their side, betting on these bad teams has been a slam dunk. Of course, it would be nice to have a larger sample size, but quite frankly, there just aren't usually that many teams this good or bad during the second half of the MLB season.
This season, there seems to be more teams that fit the bill, which could lead to more matches than usual. The 66 matches last year were a record in our database and this year may be gunning for the crown.
Here are the teams that are currently good or bad enough to fit the system:
Teams .600 or better
- Yankees: 52-28 (.650)
- Twins: 52-28 (.650)
- Astros: 50-32 (.610)
- Dodgers: 56-27 (.675)
Teams .409 or worse
- Orioles: 22-58 (.275)
- Blue Jays: 29-52 (.358)
- Tigers: 26-50 (.342)
- Royals: 28-53 (.346)
- Marlins: 30-49 (.380)
The American League is ripe for plenty of matches, especially in the East and Central divisions. Unfortunately there are no matches right now, but keep your eyes open as we enter July.
