A prop market that has grown in popularity and offered at FanDuel is the daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.
Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.
For today's slate, Royals flamethrower Cole Ragans is the favorite at +430. While my model agrees that Ragans should be the favorite, +430 is too low and offers no real value in my model.
Behind Ragans are Zack Wheeler of the Phillies (+500), Tarik Skubal of the Tigers (+700) and Freddy Peralta of the Brewers (+850).
My model shows value on two pitchers, and they coincidentally bookend today's slate: Pirates rookie phenom Paul Skenes at +1700 and fellow rookie Kyle Harrison of the Giants at +1500.
This makes for kind of a fun setup with the Pirates starting today's slate against the Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET and the Giants facing the Rockies at 10:15 p.m. ET. There's a scenario where Skenes sets the tone with a 10 or 11 strikeout performance and then later tonight, the only person left who can catch him is Harrison.
Skenes is somewhat self-explanatory. I was surprised to see him offered at +1700 considering his massive upside.
For Harrison, he has sneaky value in that he has a ton of upside against the Rockies at sea level. They typically strike out at a much higher rate on the road.
Below, you can find my projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Friday, May 17th.
