MLB Expert Picks For August 19: How to Bet Friday’s 15-Game Slate, Including Marlins vs. Dodgers

We have a fantastic 15-game slate this Friday night with some high-stakes games like the Mets vs. Phillies, Blue Jays vs. Yankees, White Sox vs. Guardians, and Astros vs. Braves

Be sure to check out our MLB odds page for up-to-the-minute odds changes across multiple sportsbooks, and our projections page which helps you find the best value across the board.

Follow all of B.J. Cunningham's bets in the Action Network app! Click here.

Brewers vs. Cubs, 2:20 p.m. ET

Aaron Ashby vs. Keegan Thompson

The starting pitching matchup definitely favors Milwaukee on Friday.

Aaron Ashby is a big time positive regression candidate with his ERA sitting at 4.24, but his xERA is at 3.71 and his xFIP is 3.38. He's been a strikeout machine with a K/9 rate up at 10.24 and the main reason for that is because he has a nasty slider that is only allowing a .171 xBA and producing a 41.9% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.

The Cubs are below the MLB average in terms of wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching and the only time they faced Ashby he racked up 12 strikeouts and gave up only one run in six innings of work.

Keegan Thompson is really starting to regress. His last five starts he's given up a whopping 15 earned runs. Overall for the season his xERA is sitting at 4.60 and he's in the bottom 40% of MLB in every single advanced metric.

I have the Brewers projected at -137 and a total of 9.02, so this one is a pass for me.

Pick: Pass

Red Sox vs. Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET

Kutter Crawford vs. Jordan Lyles

Not the best pitching matchup here in Baltimore.

Kutter Crawford has been right around in the MLB average in a little over 64 innings, posting a 4.07 xERA and 4.14 xFIP. He has a three-pitch arsenal of fastball, cutter (obviously) and curveball, but his fastball and cutter have not been effective, allowing over a .330 xwOBA and when you are throwing one of those two pitches close to 70% of the time, that's a problem.

Over the past 30 days, the Orioles are seventh in MLB in terms of wOBA and have a +17.4 run value against cutters and curveballs. So, not a great matchup for Crawford.

Jordan Lyles has not been effective no matter which way you slice it. His xERA is at 4.95, opposing hitters have a 11% barrel rate (5th percentile), and a .450 xSLG (12th percentile) against him this year. The Red Sox are an above-average team against right-handed pitching, so they shouldn't have much trouble against Lyles.

I have 5.7 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on Over 4.5 runs at -120 (DraftKings) and would play it up to -135.

Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (-120)

Reds vs. Pirates, 7:05 p.m. ET

Graham Ashcraft vs. Bryse Wilson

A game in the middle of August between two teams that are completely out of it. A perfect game for us bettors and the total in this one for me is too low.

Graham Ashcraft has been good for the Reds, posting a 3.90 xERA, but he has one of the lowest K/9 rates in baseball at 5.84 and opposing hitters do have a .261 xBA against him.

Bryse Wilson is the reason why I believe the total is too low because he's been dreadful. Wilson has a 5.58 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, opponents have a .299 xBA against him, and he's in the bottom 5% in xSLG and xwOBA allowed.

Not to mention outside of Kansas City, these are the worst two bullpens in baseball in terms of xFIP.

I have 8.8 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 7.5 runs at -115 (BetMGM) and would play it to -120.

Pick: Over 7.5 runs (-115)

Mets vs. Phillies, 7:05 p.m. ET

Chris Bassitt vs. Aaron Nola

This total is far too high with these two starting pitchers on the mound.

Chris Bassitt has been one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball this season. He has an xERA of 3.11, he's allowing a 31% hard hit rate (91st percentile), and opposing hitters only have a 85.2 mph average exit velocity against him (95th percentile).

He has five different pitches that he goes to over 10% of the time and outside of his slider, every pitch is allowing an xwOBA under .270, which is really impressive. The Phillies have a .311 wOBA against right-handed pitching (13th in MLB) and just put up zero runs against Bassitt five days ago.

Aaron Nola has legitimately been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His xERA of 2.76 is tied with Carlos Rodon for the best mark in the National and fifth best in baseball. Opposing hitters only have a .211 xBA, .347 xSLG, and .262 xwOBA against him this season, all of which are above the 85th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

The Mets' lineup really isn't as frightening as everyone makes it out to be. They only have three guys (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo) who have a xwOBA over .330.

I only have 6.9 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 8 runs at -120 (DraftKings) or I'd play Under 7.5 runs at -110 or better.

Pick: Under 8 runs (-120)

Blue Jays vs. Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET

Kevin Gausman vs. Jameson Taillon

This line is too low for Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays.

Gausman has an outstanding 2.83 xFIP, a 10.54 K/9 rate, and a very low 1.54 BB/9 rate. He has one of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball, a split finger. This season it's allowing a .172 xBA, .193 xwOBA, and is producing a 44.4% whiff rate. The good news for him is that is the only pitch the Yankees have a negative run value against this season.

Jameson Taillon, on other hand, has been just average. His xERA is at 4.04, his xFIP is at 3.81, and opposing hitters have a .258 xBA against him. One benefit that Taillon has is that he has a six-pitch arsenal and utilizes each pitch over 9% of the time.

The problem is not only is Toronto third in MLB in terms of wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but they have no weaknesses from a pitch mix standpoint because they have positive run values against every single pitch type.

I have the Blue Jays projected at -132 for the full game and -164 for the first five innings. So, I'll double up on the Blue Jays for the full game at -102 (FanDuel) and for the first five innings at -120 (BetMGM).

Pick: Blue Jays First Five Innings -120 & Full Game -102

Angels vs. Tigers, 7:10 p.m. ET

Patrick Sandoval vs. Matt Manning

Patrick Sandoval has been below average. His xERA is at 4.48, he's struggling with control, as his BB/9 rate is up at 4.41. Additionally, opposing hitters have a .257 xBA against him (26th percentile). Detroit has been one of the worst offenses in MLB, but they are top 10 in batting average against left-handed pitching.

Matt Manning has had limited action this season, he's only made five starts, and his xERA is at 4.01, not bad. However, FanGraphs, has him projected around a 4.60 ERA pitcher, which would put him very comparable to Sandoval. The Angels have not been good against right-handed pitching, ranking 22nd in wOBA this season and Mike Trout is still on the IL.

I have the Tigers projected as -115 favorites, so I like the value on them at +118 (FanDuel) and would play anything at plus money.

Pick: Tigers +118

Royals vs. Rays, 7:10 p.m. ET

Brady Singer vs. Shane McClanahan

This is an underrated pitching matchup on Friday night.

Brady Singer has been the Royals' best pitcher this season. He has a 3.82 xERA, 3.34 xFIP and a 9.26 K/9 rate. Singer basically only utilizes two pitches: a sinker and slider, which is good news against the Rays because they have a -14.9 run value against those two pitches.

Shane McClanahan has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and he has a 2.52 xERA to prove it. I mean the guys advanced metrics are off the charts good:

Image via Baseball Savant

The Royals are actually 13th in MLB in terms of wOBA against left-handed pitching, but facing McClanahan will be different kind of challenge. Plus, Kansas City has one of the worst bullpens in MLB by xFIP, BB/9 rate, and LOB%.

I have the Rays projected at -193 with a total of 6.8 so this one is a pass for me.

Pick: Pass

White Sox vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET

Lance Lynn vs. Triston McKenzie

This is a huge game in the AL Central with the Guardians leading the Twins by one game and the White Sox by 2.5 games. Also, this Guardians team is starting to reveal that there is some magic behind this team.

Specifically for Friday night against Lance Lynn, it should be a pretty good matchup. Lynn has been pretty average this season, posting a 4.15 xERA. He's also about as straight forward as it comes. He throws a fastball, sinker, and cutter as this three main pitches.

His sinker and cutter have not been effective as both are allowing over a .260 xBA. Cleveland has the lowest strikeout rate in all of MLB, so is a very difficult lineup to get by, especially if you don't throw off-speed pitches.

Triston McKenzie, similar to Lance Lynn, has been just average this year. His xERA is at 4.04, his xFIP is at 4.07, and opposing hitters are hitting him hard. He's allowing a 90.5 mph average exit velocity (8th percentile), a 10.6% barrel rate (8th percentile), and a 40.6% hard hit rate (28th percentile), per Baseball Savant.

I have the total for this game set at 9.2, so I like the value on Over 8 runs at +100 (DraftKings) and I would play it up to -114.

Pick: Over 8 runs (+100)

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Astros vs. Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET

Lance McCullers Jr. vs. Kyle Wright

Lance McCullers has made only one start since coming off the IL, but if we go back to last season, he was pretty dominant: 3.38 xERA/10.26 K/9 rate, and opposing hitters only had a .208 xBA against him.

McCullers mainly goes to a four pitch arsenal of sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. His slider was by far his best pitch last year, as opponents only had a .144 xBA against it while producing a 35.9% whiff rate.

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball, but a lot of that success has come against fastballs where they have a +61 run value. Against all offspeed pitches, they only have a +4 run value on the season.

Kyle Wright has made a giant leap forward this season after being a 5+ xERA guy early in his career, but he is a negative regression candidate. His ERA is currently at 3.14, but his xERA is at 4.07. He has a four-pitch arsenal of fastball, sinker, curveball and changeup, which is a problem against the Astros, who have a +41.2 run value against those four pitches.

I have the Astros projected at -115 for the first five innings, so I like the value on McCullers and Houston at +105 (BetMGM).

Pick: Astros First Five Innings +105

Rangers vs. Twins, 8:10 p.m. ET

Martin Perez vs. Dylan Bundy

Martin Perez is having an amazing year, as his xERA is at 3.35, which is the best mark of his entire career. The Twins are 15th in MLB in terms of wOBA against left-handed pitching, but the Rangers lineup has struggled mightily this year. Texas against right-handed pitching is 26th in wOBA.

So, even though Dylan Bundy is on the mound for Minnesota, I don't trust the Rangers offense as short underdogs.

I have the Twins projected at -126 with a total of 8.3, so this one is a pass for me.

Pick: Pass

Giants vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Alex Wood vs. Jose Urena

Alex Wood has been perfectly solid in the Giants rotation and is a positive regression candidate with his ERA sitting at 4.18 with his xERA being 3.53. The problem is he's facing a Colorado lineup that is top five in MLB against left-handed pitching in terms of wOBA.

What is interesting about this game is handicapping Jose Urena is a tough task. He's currently sitting with a 5.80 xERA, which is terrible, but FanGraphs ZIPS rest of season projections have him as a 7.36 ERA pitcher. So, is he just bad or the worst pitcher in baseball type of bad?

Not much value here for me, so I am passing.

Pick: Pass

Nationals vs. Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Paolo Espino vs. Blake Snell

The Nationals pulled off a stunner last night winning outright at +310 underdogs against San Diego. Can they do it again tonight?

Well, we have a similar type of matchup. Paolo Espino is not a good starting pitcher, but he's not horrible. He's currently sitting with a 4.31 xFIP, he doesn't walk a lot of guys with a 1.66 BB/9 rate, but he is allowing a high xBA & xSLG. The Padres overall for the season are only 12th against right-handed pitching in terms of wOBA. So should they really warrant being -340 favorites?

Blake Snell has been good, but hasn't been that dominant. Yes, a 3.26 xERA is good, but it's not top 10 in baseball.

I have the Padres projected at -198, so I love the value on the Nationals at +285 (Caesars) and I's play it down to +237.

Pick: Nationals +285

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Mariners vs. Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Marco Gonzales vs. Cole Irvin

Marco Gonzales is a negative regression candidate with his xERA being over a half a run higher than his actual ERA, but I can't back the A's at this price. Cole Irvin is a massive negative regression candidate with his ERA sitting at 3.13 and his xERA at 4.48. Not to mention, Oakland is one of the worst offenses against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in wOBA.

I have the Mariners projected at -117 with a total of 7.7, so this one is a pass for me.

Pick: Pass

Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Miles Mikolas vs. Tommy Henry

Miles Mikolas is a sub-4.00 xERA pitcher who is a deserving favorite, just maybe not this high. The Diamondbacks are a one-trick pony in the fact that that the only pitch they have a positive run value against is fastballs. So if Mikolas can stick to his other three main pitches of slider, sinker and curveball, he should be just fine.

Tommy Henry has seen limited action in the majors this season with only three starts under his belt, so there is not a lot we can take away so far, but FanGraphs has him projected as a 4.80 ERA pitcher for the rest of the season, which would give Mikolas a distinct advantage. Plus, the Cardinals are top five in baseball in wOBA versus left-handed pitching.

I have the Cardinals projected at -136, so really not much value here for me, would only play the Diamondbacks if they reached +160 or better.

Pick: Pass

Marlins vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Jesus Luzardo vs. Tyler Anderson

Betting against the Dodgers has been a lot of fun as of late, so why not do it again?

Jesus Luzardo was long a highly touted prospect and he's showed in the majors this season. In 46 innings, he has a 3.11 xERA, 3.16 xFIP, and an 11.35 K/9 rate. Opposing hitters only have a .199 xBA and .277 xwOBA against Luzardo.

Yes, the Dodgers have been the hottest offense in baseball, but they're only seventh in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Tyler Anderson has been fantastic for the Dodgers, but his metrics are very comparable to that of Luzardo: 3.13 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, .227 xBA allowed. Yes, Miami is dead last in MLB against left-handed pitching, but for two starting pitchers that are essentially even this line is way too high.

Plus, the Marlins bullpen is in the top half of MLB in xFIP, LOB%, and K/BB ratio.

I only have the Dodgers projected as -184, so I like the value on the Marlins at +215 (PointsBet) and would play it down to +210.

Pick: Marlins +215

Follow all of B.J. Cunningham's bets in the Action Network app! Click here.