Spring training is in full swing and the Major League Baseball season is right around the corner. The amount of future bets that you can make nowadays is endless, but this article is going to specifically focus on season-long player totals for home runs and strikeouts.
Finding value in this market can be a little difficult, but what I will be using is the composite projections from five different models on FanGraphs: ZIPS DC, THE BAT, ATC, FGDC and Steamer.
Sean Zerillo has highlighted a similar method that seen great success for win totals hitting at around a 59% rate when using an average of a number of different models. We are going to apply that same logic here to try and find some value.
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Home Run Over/Unders
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles
Anthony Santander has now gone two straight years over 27 home runs and the crazy thing is, he really should have hit more. In 2022, he hit 33 home runs, but per Baseball Savant his expected home runs were at 36. The same thing happened in 2023: he hit 29 home runs, but his expected home runs were at 33.
Even with the ballpark dimension changes to Camden Yards in 2022 when they moved the fence back and increased the height, Santander still found a lot of success hitting homers over the right field fence. Camden Yards before the dimension changes was the third-best park for left-handed bats to hit home runs. It's gone down, but is still in the top 10 among MLB stadiums. Santander hit 19 of his 29 homers over that left field fence last year. He is a switch hitter and hits much better from the left side of the plate.
There is a little bit of value on him hitting 28 home runs considering he's had at least 33 expected home runs in each of the last two years.
Bet: Anthony Santander Over 27.5 Home Runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
This all comes down to whether or not Bryce Harper can stay healthy. While he missed time last year due to Tommy John surgery, he still ended up playing 126 games, yet only hit 21 home runs. He went over 30 home runs in 2021 and 2019, but this is someone who has had 14 different injuries since the beginning of 2021.
Additionally, he’s not much of a home run hitter anymore. His exit velocity and launch angle have dropped considerably since he hit 35 home runs in 2021. His fly ball percentage has seen a steep decline. In 2019 and 2021, when he hit over 30 home runs, his fly ball percentage was around 37%, while last year it dropped all the way down to 30%.
This doesn’t mean Bryce Harper is a considerably worse hitter, it just means that he’s not the home run hitter we once knew. Composite projections have him at 28.4, so there is value in taking under 30.5 home runs.
Bet: Bryce Harper Under 30.5 Home Runs (-110 at DraftKings)
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Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
This is a decent buy-low opportunity on Fernando Tatis Jr. after a down year in 2023. He obviously missed the entire 2022 season, so he was always going to naturally regress from hitting 42 home runs in 2021. His exit velocity and barrel rate numbers were down from 2021, but the encouraging sign was that he still maintained a relatively high launch angles and he is still in the 90th percentile for hard hit rate.
Another encouraging sign is Tatis is attacking the first pitch more. His first pitch swing percentage is up and he's swinging at a higher percentage of fastballs than he did in 2021, which is the pitch he hits the best.
Even the most conservative projections have him at 34 home runs and the composite is well above 36, so I am buying low on Tatis to hit at least 35 home runs.
Bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 34.5 Home Runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson is without a doubt one of the most exciting players in baseball, but this line is a little too high. In his first season in the big leagues, he hit 28 home runs, but his launch angle of 11.4 and barrel rate of 11.4% were not in the elite category.
There is also the fact that he cannot hit lefties. Only two of his 28 home runs last year came against lefties and now that he is established in the big leagues, teams are going to use lefty relievers on him whenever they get the chance. There is always a natural regression from young stars' rookie seasons to their second year in the big leagues. Teams now have film and data on Henderson to know how pitch to him.
Basically, if you have velocity and can keep the ball high in the zone Henderson will not hurt you with home runs. He also had negative run values against sliders and cutters, so any type of movement inside he most likely won't hit over the fence.
So, given the natural regression that happens for rookies entering their second year in the league, I like the value on under 27.5 home runs for Henderson.
Bet: Gunnar Henderson Under 27.5 Home Runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies
Taking an under for someone who is going to play half of their games in Coors Field is not the most appealing of bets, but Kris Bryant's home run total is a little inflated.
He's not the home run hitter you once knew in Chicago. Last season, he only was able to play 80 games, but he just 10 home runs. The problem is that his exit velocity and barrel rate are down across the board.
In the past, Bryant was an incredible fastball hitter and it's how he hit most of his home runs. In 2019 and 2021, which were the last two seasons he hit over 20 home runs, about 60% of his home runs came off of fastballs. Last season, he had just six homers off of fastballs. In addition to that, his fly ball percentage is down about 7% from his peak in Chicago.
Now there is the question as to whether he can stay healthy for a full season. Bryant has had a laundry list of different injuries over the last three years and is now 32 years old. He's projected to play around 130 games and even if he gets there, his composite projection is 17.2, so there is some value in taking his under.
Bet: Kris Bryant Under 19.5 Home Runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
The home run pace Matt Olson kept up for the entirety of last season was insane. He hit 54 home runs and was consistently hitting eight or nine home runs a month, which is really hard to do. He hadn't hit over 40 in any season in his career before last year and also has played a full 162 games two straight seasons.
Since 2001, there have been 18 instances of a player hitting 50+ home runs. Do you know how many players hit 50+ home runs in the following season? One: Alex Rodriguez in 2001-02. Olson's barrel rate, exit velocity and just about every metric peaked last season and was the best in the league. There has to be some natural regression for a guy who hadn't hit over 40 home runs before last year.
Olson also has two very specific zones where he hits most of his home runs. All it takes is pitchers staying away from these two zones for a stretch of the season and he's not even going to come close to hitting 50 home runs.
Even the most optimistic projection has him hitting 41 home runs, so his total of 43.5 is a tad high. I like the value on Olson's under.
Bet: Matt Olson Under 43.5 Home Runs (-114 at BetRivers)
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Strikeout Over/Unders
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
I love Bobby Miller and he is one of the most exciting young arms in baseball. However, the Dodgers are moving to a six-man rotation for at least some portion of 2024, so I am not sure Miller is going get enough innings to hit 151 strikeouts.
If Miller makes every start for the Dodgers and they stick to their six-man rotation, he will make 27 starts on the season. His K/9 rate last year was 8.61 and the most optimistic projection is at 8.95. If he averages 5.62 innings per start like last year, he would just barely hit 151 strikeouts. There is also the dreaded regression that happens from the rookie year to the second year in the big league.
Miller has some of the best stuff in baseball, but jumping from 8.61 K/9 rate up to the 9-10 range is a big leap that is very unlikely to happen. There is value in taking his under.
Bet: Bobby Miller Under 150.5 Strikeouts (-110 at bet365)
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Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
This is a pretty good buy-low spot on Jack Flaherty. He's been terrible the past few seasons with an xERA well above five, but when he gets outs, they're usually strikeouts.
Despite giving up a ton of runs the last two seasons, Flaherty has maintained a K/9 rate above nine in all but one of his past six seasons. He's looked pretty good so far in spring training with his velocity up a few ticks, which could be an encouraging sign that he is finding the form he had in 2018 and 2019.
Interesting to see that Jack Flaherty's velo from his first spring start has maintained to his second start. pic.twitter.com/sYWE2ksBMI
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) March 2, 2024
Flaherty has battled injuries and this is a bet on him staying healthy, but he did throw 144 innings last season at a 9.23 K/9 rate. If his velocity is improving and he pitches for a full season, he's going clear this total easily.
Bet: Jack Flaherty Over 128.5 Strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
Justin Steele had a breakout season in 2023 and had 176 strikeouts on his way to almost winning the NL Cy Young, but for him to hit 176 strikeouts again is going to take a lot of things going in his favor.
Steele has been above a K/9 rate of 9.0 in his two seasons as a full-time starter in the big leagues, but every single projection model has him regressing below that mark this season. Steele only throws two pitches primarily, a fastball and slider. That can become a little too predictable as a starting pitcher even if Steele is able to change his arm angle to throw a couple of different kinds of fastball.
He's also not that overpowering of a pitcher. His fastball only averaged 91.8 mph last season with a slider that did a decent job of getting swings and misses. He's more of a ground ball than a strikeout pitcher, which is indicated by his 50% groundball rate last year and being only in the 33rd percentile for whiff rate.
All of this is not to say Steele is a bad pitcher, there is just going to be some natural regression as a soft-tossing lefty who over performed a lot of his expected metrics. So, 175.5 strikeouts is way too high, as his composite projection is at 163.2.
Bet: Justin Steele Under 175.5 Strikeouts (-110 at BetMGM)
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Kevin Gausman has cleared this number in two of his last three seasons, but for a pitcher who is now at the age of 33, maintaining what is essentially an 11 K/9 rate for a full season is an incredibly hard thing to do.
Gausman does have one of the nastiest pitches in baseball in his arsenal. His splitter generated a 43.2% whiff rate and accounted for 127 of his 237 strikeouts. However, even with that deadly pitch he basically only throws that and a fastball. The effectiveness of his splitter has incrementally been going down over the years. Two years ago with the Giants, the vertical drop on it was 37 inches, when last year it dropped to 32.2 inches.
With that effectiveness going down, it's going to be really hard to hit 227 strikeouts. Even the most optimistic projection has him throwing 193 innings and only getting to 222 strikeouts, so there is quite a bit of value on taking his under.
Bet: Kevin Gausman Under 226.5 Strikeouts (-110 at BetMGM)
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Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb cleared this number last season because he was an absolute workhorse, throwing 216 innings. The problem with him clearing this number again is he's not much of a strikeout pitcher, so you are essentially betting him to throw 200+ innings again.
Webb has consistently sat around an 8.0 K/9 rate, was in the 11th percentile for whiff rate and 44th percentile for K%. He is basically the definition of a ground ball pitcher, as his ground ball rate was at 62.1% last season. His three-pitch arsenal of changeup, sinker and slider are all designed to be down in the zone and all three of those pitches had around a 20% put-away rate last year, which is below the major-league average.
He would likely have to throw 203 or more innings to clear this number, which is going to be very difficult to do. The most optimistic projection has him for 178 strikeouts, so I think there is a lot of value in his under.
Bet: Logan Webb Under 180.5 Strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
Max Fried is one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball, but he's not among the elites in terms of strikeouts. He missed a lot of time last year due to a forearm injury, but even the season before that he threw a little over 185 innings and failed to reach 171 strikeouts.
Fried has a 8.84 K/9 for his career and his composite projected K/9 rate is around 8.5. The reason for that is because he doesn't generate a high number of swings and misses on his fastball and is reliant on striking guys out below the strike zone. His curveball and changeup are pretty deadly and are generating high whiff rates above 35%, but when you are only able to strike guys out in one part of the zone, it makes it really hard to have a high strikeout percentage, which is why he was in the 67th percentile in that category.
This is not a knock against Fried; he's one of the better pitchers in baseball and had an insanely low xERA last year. He's more of an effective ground ball pitcher than someone who is going to generate a high K/9 rate with everything being down in the zone. With his composite projection being 10 strikeouts lower than the current line, I like the value on the under.
Bet: Max Fried Under 170.5 Strikeouts (-110 at bet365)
Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
This line is way too high for Sonny Gray.
If he is going to hit this over, two things have to happen: First, he is going to have to stay healthy and start 30+ games, which he has only done once 2019. He's had a history of injuring his hamstring multiple times and left his most recent spring training start with hamstring tightness, which is not a good sign.
Sonny Gray was removed from the game with right hamstring tightness. #stlcards
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) March 4, 2024
Secondly, if he's not going to pitch every available start, he has to maintain a 10+ K/9 rate like he did when he was with the Reds. The problem is he's now gone two straight seasons of having under a nine K/9 rate with the Twins. Most projection models even have him closer to a 8.5 K/9 rate.
The reason for his drop in K% from his time in Cincinnati is that he's almost abandoned throwing his sinker, which is the pitch that generated his highest percentage of strikeouts from 2019 to 2021. He's now basically only relying on his sweeper to get all of his strikeouts. It's a fantastic pitch that generates a 41.3% whiff rate, but it accounted for 106 of his 184 strikeouts last year.
The chances of Gray staying healthy for a full season and increasing his K/9 rate up above nine is pretty slim, so I like the value on his under 170.5 strikeouts.
Bet: Sonny Gray Under 170.5 Strikeouts (-110 at bet365)
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
This is a perfect lesson line shopping because there are some books that have this priced closer to 250, in which there would be no value.
Strider is without a doubt the best strikeout pitcher in baseball, having a 13.5 5 K/9 rate last season because he has an elite fastball/slider combination. Strider's fastball averages 97.2 mph and has a Stuff+ rating of 144, which is the best mark in baseball. His slider generated at 55.3% whiff rate last season.
He is also adding a curveball to his pitch arsenal to make it even more difficult on opposing hitters. So far in spring training it's looking pretty good and will be a big weapon in being less predictable as opposed to only throwing two pitches.
Spencer Strider with his new curveball for the strikeout pic.twitter.com/Qr9Dzn2BMp
— Gaurav (@gvedak) February 29, 2024
If Strider stays healthy and maintains his strikeout rate, which there is no indication that it is going to drop significantly, then he's going over his strikeout total.
Bet: Spencer Strider Over 245.5 Strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal may be about to take the leap to stardom this season and after the second half he had in 2023, how can you not be excited?
Skubal made his first start on July 4th and from that point on had the lowest xFIP and xERA in Major League Baseball. Not only that, in his 15 starts he had a 11.43 K/9 rate because of how he changed up his pitch arsenal from 2022. Skubal has an incredibly nasty changeup, but didn't really throw is at a high rate in 2022. It was his second-most utilized pitch in 2023 and he generated over a 50% whiff rate on that pitch.
Skubal is also coming into this season with more velocity on his fastball. He averaged 95.8 mph last year and in his last spring training start was consistently sitting at 97 mph. That would be a big jump and allow him to increase his already high 25% whiff rate on that pitch to generate a high number of strikeouts.
Lets recap Tarik Skubal's first 3 innings.
– 6 strikeouts
– 14[ whiffs
– 1 hit
– 0 walks
– Sitting 97 mph on his four-seamer pic.twitter.com/kotq3yPLyC— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) March 4, 2024
Again, this is another lesson in finding the best possible line because I have seen his total as high as 167.5 at other books. If he stays healthy, he's going to clear this number easily.
Bet: Tarik Skubal Over 158.5 Strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
