As we head toward Opening Day, I'm previewing the MLB futures markets, including team futures, player awards and regular-season stat leaders.
For this article, I'm covering my MLB stat leader predictions and picks. Generally, these markets encompass wins, strikeouts and saves for pitchers, and home runs, runs scored, RBI, steals and hits for batters.
Below, I'll provide my projections and simulated outcomes (using a Monte Carlo simulation) for these statistics, guide you through each category, and tell you where I'm placing my money for the 2025 MLB season.
As a reminder, I will post any new bets to the Action Network app. Download the app, follow me and get notifications when I place a bet.
MLB Futures, Predictions: Stat Leader Bets
Most Wins
Here are my projected pitching wins leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.
Note that while I will provide my average projection for each player, every individual athlete has a different 1) range of projected performance outcomes (some highly variable, others less so) and 2) chance of getting injured; I accounted for both points more directly in the simulated odds.
As a result, you can better understand why Jacob deGrom (9 projected wins) has a higher simulated leader rate for this category than pitchers who own a substantially higher average projection (Ragans 12.3; Kirby 12.1).
Considering I bet the win total under on both the Yankees and Phillies, I'm less inclined to invest in their pitchers in this market. Therefore, the Cy Young favorites — Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal — in addition to Framber Valdez, are my three primary investment targets.
Valdez is one of my favorite bets in any market at +4000; he has led MLB in wins over the past three seasons (44) and is tied with Zack Wheeler over the past four (55). Valdez pitches deeper into games than most starters in this era, and he generates a high number of decisions.
While wins leader isn't as easily predictable (more variance) or widely available as other markets, always shop around for the best price.
After line shopping, I ultimately played Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Wheeler at far better numbers than market consensus (I would have passed at those lesser price points).
Most Wins Bets
- Wins Leader: Gerrit Cole (+2500, 0.1u) bet365; bet to +1750
- Wins Leader: Max Fried (+4000, 0.05u) at bet365; bet to +4000
- Wins Leader: Paul Skenes (+1500, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +1100
- Wins Leader: Tarik Skubal (+1100, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet bet to +950
- Wins Leader: Framber Valdez (+4000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +2000
- Wins Leader: Zack Wheeler (+1200, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +850
Most Strikeouts
Here are my projected pitching strikeout leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.
Paul Skenes is working on a cutter and two-seamer in spring training, and using either — or both pitches — could reduce his strikeout upside for 2025. His current arsenal is far more effective for generating strikeouts, but it led to high pitch counts and introducing the new offerings could help him move through innings more efficiently.
It's difficult not to bet on Crochet in this category. Boston's new ace generated the highest strikeout rate in MLB last season but ranks third on the odds board. Still, Crochet remains a significant injury risk — before 2024, his career high in innings was 65 in his sophomore year at Tennessee.
Dylan Cease finished with 224 strikeouts last season — four behind the leader (Tarik Skubal) — and has a better health grade than most of his peers.
Chris Sale only finished three strikeouts behind Skubal, and he missed a couple of starts because of soreness. He remains an injury risk, but that's more than baked into the price point. His strikeout rate was very similar in both halves of the 2024 season.
Blake Snell posted the highest strikeout rate of his career (34.7%), finishing a close second to Crochet (35.1%), and blew the doors off the field in his 12 second-half starts (39.6%). He's the only Dodgers pitcher I project for relatively safe volume (160+ innings with good health), and he could potentially pitch even more aggressively (and relaxed) in 2025, getting the best run support of his career.
Jacob deGrom has the broadest possible range of outcomes (projected low of 69 strikeouts, high of 206, median 149), having made just 45 starts in the past four seasons. Still, this is the best chance deGrom will ever have again to have a healthy season, and he's within reach of the strikeout leader mark at 150 innings or more — a far lower threshold than his competition.
Hunter Greene saw his strikeout rate dip last season, but he showed significant improvement in his underlying profile. He retains some of the best stuff among starting pitchers; there's another level jump in there.
Robbie Ray is the most interesting long-shot name, but I doubt he gets the requisite innings (about 175) to get within reach of the lead. In a limited sample last season, Ray posted a career-high strikeout rate (33.3%), compared to a 32.1% strikeout rate when he led MLB in Ks and won the AL Cy Young in 2021.
Most Strikeouts Bets
- Strikeout Leader: Dylan Cease (+1600, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +1100
- Strikeout Leader: Garrett Crochet (+1300, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +900
- Strikeout Leader: Jacob deGrom (+4000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +3000
- Strikeout Leader: Hunter Greene (+3000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +3000
- Strikeout Leader: Robbie Ray (+7500, 0.05u) at bet365; bet to +7500
- Strikeout Leader: Chris Sale (+3300, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +2000
- Strikeout Leader: Blake Snell (+1700, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +1400
Most Saves
Here are my projected saves leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.
Despite the projected edge on Emmanuel Clase — and his category dominance in recent years (30 more saves than any pitcher over the past three seasons; led MLB in 2022 and 2023, finished second in 2024) — I'm hesitant to bet on the Guardians closer for two reasons.
While the projections liked Cleveland to overachieve in 2024 (average projection 80.2 vs. 79.5 listed toal), the consensus has flipped for 2025 (average projection 78.5 vs. 82 listed total) and I view them as a sub-.500 club (projected 78.4) that is highly likely to miss the postseason.
Moreover, Clase was miserable last October, permitting a trio of multirun meltdowns after avoiding one for the regular season. He looked "off" while laboring through opposing hitters and I'm concerned about his health for 2025; I'd want at least +900 to bet Clase.
I'm inclined to align my saves leader wagers with two of my favorite division winner bets and teams expected to gain a Round 1 bye if they secure their division: the Braves and Orioles.
Raisel Iglesias no longer has to deal with A.J. Minter (10 saves in 2023) vulturing opportunities against lefties; Iglesias should surpass 40 saves if the Braves win 95 games.
Orioles closer Felix Bautista is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, but I have far fewer concerns about a reliever coming off TJ than I would about a starting pitcher, and he should be ready for Opening Day.
Most Saves Bets
- Saves Leader: Felix Bautista (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +2000
- Saves Leader: Raisel Iglesias (+1400, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +1350
Most Hits
Here are my projected total hits leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.
We cashed Bobby Witt Jr. at +3000 in this category last season (he was projected to finish 6th in hits), and I project him as the favorite (and a value bet at that) to repeat in 2025. Hits leader might be the best way to bet Witt this year, too — his MVP odds are a touch too short, in my opinion.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finished third in hits last season (199; 12 behind Witt) and led all batters in the second half (91 in 63 games vs. 86 in 64 for Witt). My primary concern is Guerrero's lineup spot; he hits in the two-hole, and your average leadoff hitter will get about 18 additional plate appearances (4.6 PA/game for leadoff vs. 4.49 for No. 2 hitters) throughout an entire season.
I have similar concerns about Jackson Merrill, who will likely bat third (4.39 PA/game) for the Padres and lose about 35 plate appearances compared to the average leadoff hitter. Still, Merrill got better as his rookie year went on and he finished on an exclusive shortlist of players who excelled in all quadrants of the strike zone. Merrill has elite bat control.
Trea Turner and Shohei Ohtani will both hit atop their respective batting orders.
Turner's hits leader odds reflect his new lineup spot; his odds shortened after moving from second to leadoff in the Phillies' order this spring, but I don't think his runs leader odds properly adjusted and I prefer him in that market.
Ohtani started 69 games as the Dodgers' No. 2 hitter (averaging 4.52 plate appearances per game), compared to 90 as their leadoff man (4.65 PA/G), which cost him about 10 plate appearances. He finished 14 hits shy of the league leader. However, if Ohtani returns to the mound, he should have more off days in 2024 anyway.
Despite a down 2024 season (where he partially played through injury), Julio Rodriguez posted a near identical xwOBA (.344) compared to 2023 (.345), showed improved swing decisions (per SEAGER), and finished with a dominant September, ranking second behind Ohtani in hits over the season's final month.
Most Hits Bets
- Hits Leader: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1600, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +1100
- Hits Leader: Jackson Merrill (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +1700
- Hits Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+3000, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +2250
- Hits Leader: Julio Rodriguez (+2500, 0.1u) at Parx; bet to +2000
- Hits Leader: Bobby Witt Jr. (+800, 0.15u); at ESPN Bet; bet to +725
Most Runs
Here are my projected run-scored leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.
Corbin Carroll had a miserable start to his sophomore campaign, yet he finished fifth with 121 runs scored, leading MLB with 61 in the second half of the season. Statistically, he was MLB's most valuable baserunner (despite ranking 26th in sprint speed). His runs leader prop is one of my favorite futures on the board.
Gunnar Henderson was the runs-scored leader (78) over the first half of the 2024 season — he ultimately finished sixth. He'll remain atop the Orioles' order in 2025, and Baltimore's offense should be more productive than it was last season after moving the left-field fences back in.
Elly De La Cruz is the lone non-leadoff hitter on this list, but he was MLB's stolen base king and ranked third in sprint speed. He may need to move up a spot in the batting order (and garner the additional 15+ plate appearances) to win this category, but new managers do tend to juggle things around.
Trea Turner is a great value bet at +5000 after moving to the Phillies' leadoff spot, but I worry about his declining sprint speed (and increased risk of re-injuring his hamstring) in his 30s.
And I feel similarly about the safe volume from Marcus Semien, whose skills are trending down in his mid-30s. Semien is seemingly a lock for 100+ runs if he hits atop the Rangers' order every day, but there's an upside closer to 125 (had 123 and 122 in prior seasons) if everything clicks for Texas in 2025.
Most Runs Scored Bets
- Runs Scored Leader: Corbin Carroll (+2000, 0.15u) at bet365; bet to +1050
- Runs Scored Leader: Elly De La Cruz (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365; be tot +2200
- Runs Scored Leader: Gunnar Henderson (+1600, 0.1u); at bet365; bet to +1050
- Runs Scored Leader: Marcus Semien (+7500, 0.05u) at bet365; bet to +4000
- Runs Scored Leader: Trea Turner (+5000, 0.1u); at bet365; bet to +3000
Most RBI
Here are my projected RBI leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.
I likely projected less variance in the RBI leader market than the betting market does; perhaps I need to increase the standard deviation multiplier (and thus increase the variance) when simulating this category for future seasons.
As a result, there is seemingly a lot of value on the board and you can pick your spots — but if you're betting on Aaron Judge, I might only fire a single bullet.
I'm not going to bet on Rafael Devers this season. He dealt with soreness in both shoulders in 2024 and is being eased into action this spring. Raffy only hit .244/.325/.402 (.727 OPS) with five homers in the second half of the season — it's concerning.
I don't love betting leadoff hitters in this category, but Ohtani posted an MLB-best 61 RBI in the second half of last season (while leading off). He ultimately finished 14 RBI behind Judge but was 12 clear of third place (Jose Ramirez, 118).
Matt Olson outpaced the league by 21 RBI in 2023 and is a lock to play everyday; I also expect Atlanta's offense to return to form in 2025, giving him ample opportunity to cash in runners.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. only has one top-10 finish (7th in 2021) in RBI, but he has one of the safest floor projections among the top contenders in this field.
Pete Alonso found his stroke near the end of last season. High fly-ball power hitters tend to go through long stretches of dominance or ineptitude, and Alonso may be poised for a big season in 2025 (with the ability to opt out and let Guerrero reset the market for first basemen in free agency next offseason). Hitting behind an on-base machine like Juan Soto should substantially boost Alonso's RBI total.
I'm still waiting for Yordan Alvarez to make "the leap," — and it could happen with him DH'ing more in 2025. Alvarez profiles as a .320 hitter with 45-50 homers at peak; it's coming in one of the following three seasons (with good health), and I'd rather be a year early than a year late.
Kyle Schwarber is a sharp long-shot bet in this category after trading spots with Trea Turner in the Phillies' batting order. There's no guarantee Schwarber will stay there, but he could finish with closer to 120 RBI than the 104 he posted in each of the past two seasons with fewer runners on base ahead of him.
Most Runs Batted In Bets
- RBI Leader: Pete Alonso (+2000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +1500
- RBI Leader: Yordan Alvarez (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +1700
- RBI Leader: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+3500, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +1200
- RBI Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+1200, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +700
- RBI Leader: Matt Olson (+2000, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +900
- RBI Leader: Kyle Schwarber (+5000, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +2500
Most Stolen Bases
Here are my projected stolen base (SB) leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.
We cashed Elly De La Cruz to win this category at +1000 last season, but I'm not confident that the Reds will run as much under new manager Terry Francona.
Cincinnati was the most aggressive base-stealing team in 2023 (238 attempts), and even though it ranked third in 2024, its rate went up (252 attempts). During his tenure in Cleveland, Francona teams finished, on average, with 7.8 stolen bases. Even a slight pullback in volume for the Reds makes this category competitive, especially if De La Cruz robs himself of further opportunities by hitting for more power in 2025 (projected as high as 30 HR vs. 25 last season).
De La Cruz set the pace in the first half of 2024 (46 steals in 96 games; 16 clear of the field), but Ohtani (36 in 302 plate appearances) led the league in the second half of the season. Xavier Edwards (28 in 242 PA) and Victor Robles (26 in 224 PA) were his closest competition over the final 2 1/2 months.
Considering the additional pitching workload on him in 2025 — and the Dodgers' ability to take the safe route to navigate their roster to October — I doubt Ohtani runs quite as much as he did in 2024. Still, 70-1 seems pretty outlandish, given his skillset and projections.
Corbin Carroll and Bobby Witt Jr. (the fastest man in baseball, per sprint speed) appear to be the best value bets.
Like De La Cruz, I'd expect that Witt will continue to add more power to his profile as he ages; limiting his stole base opportunities. Still, Witt stole 49 bases in 2023, which ranked third behind Carroll (54) and Ronald Acuña Jr., who may not run nearly as much as projections suggest coming off ACL surgery.
Brice Turang swiped 50 bags in 2024, and his defense keeps him in the lineup. However, Turang may eventually get platooned against lefties (93 wRC+ vs. righties, 65 wRC+ vs. lefties in 2024), which would effectively knock him out of contention.
Robles had a potential post-hype breakout at age 27, stealing 34 bases in 295 plate appearances, a 63-steal full-season pace (550 PA). All projection systems have Robles finishing north of 500 PA in 2025, but with a max of 38 steals.
If Robles leads off and plays every day, he will eclipse 50 and contend at long odds.
Most Stolen Bases Bets
- Steals Leader: Corbin Carroll (+900, 0.15u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +750
- Steals Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+7000, 0.03u) at FanDuel; bet to +3000
- Steals Leader: Victor Robles (+2500, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +1900
- Steals Leader: Bryce Turang (+1600, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +1400
- Steals Leader: Bobby Witt Jr. (+2000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +1200
Most Home Runs
Here are my projected home run leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.
Four of my home run leader suggestions also showed as RBI leader value bets: Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. I much prefer Schwarber for RBI leader at +5000 than HR leader at +1200, but I bet the latter three in both markets.
To reiterate, Alvarez projects to move toward 50 homers as he enters his prime power seasons (typically ages 28 and 29), Alonso has a streaky approach (one where he can go through extended slumps followed by significant production binges), and Olson — who we cashed for HR leader (+5000) two seasons ago — is back in an actionable price range (+1800 last season).
Juan Soto's power is ticking upward as he enters his physical prime; the slugger posted a career-high 19.7% barrel rate (13.7% career average) in 2024, and a .310-50 season at peak now seems within reach.
Brent Rooker (16.6% barrel rate) should benefit from friendlier dimensions and weather in Sacramento than in Oakland; in the past two seasons, he had 41 homers on the road compared to 28 at home.
Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. both project to add more power to their respective counting stats as they age. While even the 99th percentile projections from PECOTA don't get either above 39 homers in 2025, they both carry a wide range of expected home run outcomes for 2025.
Most Home Runs Bets
- HR Leader: Pete Alonso (+1900, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +1700
- HR Leader: Yordan Alvarez (+2500, 0.15u) at bet365 bet to +1600
- HR Leader: Matt Olson (+3500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +3300
- HR Leader: Brent Rooker (+3000, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +2500
- HR Leader: Juan Soto (+3300, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +2500
Zerillo's MLB Stat Leader Futures Bets List
Most Hits
- Hits Leader: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1600, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +1100
- Hits Leader: Jackson Merrill (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +1700
- Hits Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+3000, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +2250
- Hits Leader: Julio Rodriguez (+2500, 0.1u) at Parx; bet to +2000
- Hits Leader: Bobby Witt Jr. (+800, 0.15u); at ESPN Bet; bet to +725
Most Home Runs
- HR Leader: Pete Alonso (+1900, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +1700
- HR Leader: Yordan Alvarez (+2500, 0.15u) at bet365 bet to +1600
- HR Leader: Matt Olson (+3500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +3300
- HR Leader: Brent Rooker (+3000, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +2500
- HR Leader: Juan Soto (+3300, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +2500
Most Runs Batted In
- RBI Leader: Pete Alonso (+2000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +1500
- RBI Leader: Yordan Alvarez (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +1700
- RBI Leader: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+3500, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +1200
- RBI Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+1200, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +700
- RBI Leader: Matt Olson (+2000, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +900
- RBI Leader: Kyle Schwarber (+5000, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +2500
Most Runs Scored
- Runs Scored Leader: Corbin Carroll (+2000, 0.15u) at bet365; bet to +1050
- Runs Scored Leader: Elly De La Cruz (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365; be tot +2200
- Runs Scored Leader: Gunnar Henderson (+1600, 0.1u); at bet365; bet to +1050
- Runs Scored Leader: Marcus Semien (+7500, 0.05u) at bet365; bet to +4000
- Runs Scored Leader: Trea Turner (+5000, 0.1u); at bet365; bet to +3000
Most Saves
- Saves Leader: Felix Bautista (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +2000
- Saves Leader: Raisel Iglesias (+1400, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +1350
Most Stolen Bases
- Steals Leader: Corbin Carroll (+900, 0.15u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +750
- Steals Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+7000, 0.03u) at FanDuel; bet to +3000
- Steals Leader: Victor Robles (+2500, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +1900
- Steals Leader: Bryce Turang (+1600, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +1400
- Steals Leader: Bobby Witt Jr. (+2000, 0.1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +1200
Most Strikeouts
- Strikeout Leader: Dylan Cease (+1600, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +1100
- Strikeout Leader: Garrett Crochet (+1300, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +900
- Strikeout Leader: Jacob deGrom (+4000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +3000
- Strikeout Leader: Hunter Greene (+3000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +3000
- Strikeout Leader: Robbie Ray (+7500, 0.05u) at bet365; bet to +7500
- Strikeout Leader: Chris Sale (+3300, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +2000
- Strikeout Leader: Blake Snell (+1700, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +1400
Most Wins
- Wins Leader: Gerrit Cole (+2500, 0.1u) bet365; bet to +1750
- Wins Leader: Max Fried (+4000, 0.05u) at bet365; bet to +4000
- Wins Leader: Paul Skenes (+1500, 0.1u) at bet365; bet to +1100
- Wins Leader: Tarik Skubal (+1100, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet bet to +950
- Wins Leader: Framber Valdez (+4000, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +2000
- Wins Leader: Zack Wheeler (+1200, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet; bet to +850
