The 2024 MLB regular season begins on Thursday, March 28, with all 30 teams scheduled for action.
With the season upon us, MLB futures odds and bets have been in the spotlight with picks and predictions on the 2024 World Series, win totals and more.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are we World Series favorites as we approach Opening Day after going 1-1 in their two-game set with the San Diego Padres last week. At DraftKings, they are +350 to win the World Series.
Action Network MLB betting analyst Sean Zerillo has been covering MLB futures for weeks leading up to Opening Day of the 2024 season, and here you can find all of his best bets right here in one place.
As a reminder, to receive instant notifications any time Sean Zerillo places an MLB bet throughout the season, you can follow him on the Action App.
MLB Preview 2024 | World Series Predictions, Best Bets
All listed betting odds are as of the original date of publication. For up-to-the-minute MLB odds at a variety of sportsbooks in every market, visit and bookmark our MLB Odds page.
World Series Best Bets
- Atlanta Braves, Win the World Series (+650, 1u) at bet365
- Minnesota Twins, Win the World Series (+4000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Tampa Bay Rays, Win the World Series (+4500, 0.1u) at Caesars
For Sean Zerillo's complete team-by-team analysis ahead of the 2024 season, click here.
Atlanta Braves
While the public projection (range 95-101) likes the Under on the Braves' win total, it still shows value in their odds to win the NL East, make the playoffs and win the World Series.
The divisional and playoff odds are somewhat prohibitive; still, there is a significant edge between -537 (84.3% implied) projected and listed odds of -240 (70.6% implied).
I prefer to bet the Braves to win the World Series at this stage. Public projections put them as low as +475 (17.4% implied) and as high as +288 (25.8% implied); you can +650 (13.33% implied) at bet365. Atlanta was +250 at the start of the playoffs last season.
Minnesota Twins
While both my projection and the public projection (range 85-89) create a composite that directly aligns with Minnesota's win total, there's value in this team to make a deep playoff run after winning its first postseason series in 21 years.
The Twins have high-end starting pitching, live arms in their bullpen and a potentially dangerous — albeit fragile — lineup.
PECOTA puts the Twins' World Series chances at 6.1% (+1538 implied), while FanGraphs has 3.6% (+2677 implied) and ZIPS is at 3.8% (+2531 implied). All are substantially more optimistic than their best available odds of +4000 (2.44% implied).
While I'm taking a shot against the Twins to win the division, I still like their odds of making the playoffs and posing a threat for the AL pennant if their key pieces survive the season.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays had the best Pythagorean record in the American League last season, and if you flipped the result of every one-run contest, they would have cleared the division by 14 games.
While their starting rotation looks entirely different than at the start of last season (four of five starters hurt or traded), the Rays will continue to turn unheralded arms (like Ryan Pepiot) into stars — and may get Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen back for the stretch run. They have an underrated offensive core (Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe and Junior Caminero) with as much depth as ever, play elite defense and develop shutdown relievers.
I projected the Rays for 89 wins; public projections put them between 85 and 87, but I could make an argument that the Rays are the most consistently under-projected team in baseball. Over the past five full seasons, Tampa Bay has had an average preseason win total of 85.3 and has finished with an average of 94.2 wins:
Composite Projected Wins / Actual Wins
- 2018: 80.5 / 90
- 2019: 85.8 / 96
- 2021: 86.5 / 100
- 2022: 86.3 / 86
- 2023: 87.4 / 99
I'd recommend betting the Rays Over up to 84.5 if you're using the composite projection or 86 if you're using my projection.
I see just a three-win gap between the Yankees and the Rays — most similar to the FanGraphs' playoff odds (2.5 win differential), which has Tampa Bay at 23.9% (+318 implied odds) to win the division, 61.2% (-158 implied) to make the postseason and 4.4% (+2172 implied) to win its first championship.
The public projection takes a more conservative estimate but still thinks the Rays should be minus money to make the playoffs, +564 to win the AL East, and about 31-1 to win the World Series.
If you're betting the Rays win total Over, you should also be betting those correlated outcomes.
Win Totals
- Baltimore Orioles, Under 91.5 (-105, 1u) at ESPN BET
- Detroit Tigers, Under 81.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- Los Angeles Dodgers, Under 104.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- Milwaukee Brewers, Over 75.5 (-110, 1u) at ESPN BET
- Oakland Athletics, Over 55.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- St. Louis Cardinals, Under 85.5 (-105, 0.5u) at ESPN BET
- Tampa Bay Rays, Over 84 (-110, 1u) at Caesars
- Texas Rangers, Under 89.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM
- Washington Nationals, Under 68.5 (-110, 1u) at Superbook
- Washington Nationals, Least Regular Season Wins (+1200, 0.25u) at Superbook
For Sean Zerillo's complete team-by-team analysis ahead of the 2024 season, click here.
Baltimore Orioles
By run differential, Baltimore drastically overachieved (+7 in Pythagorean win differential), and would have finished with just 87 wins if you flipped the result of every one-run game.
Teams that excel in either stat tend to regress in the following season — let alone both — and the Orioles' bullpen, which ranked second in WAR and xFIP (3.94) last season, projects closer to mid-pack than top-tier in 2024.
Additionally, while the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes, spring injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means will re-allocate some innings to lesser pitchers — limiting the upside for this club despite incredible, young offensive depth.
After the Bradish injury, most books lowered their win total for Baltimore — except for one. I like the Orioles Under to 91; the composite projection would take them Under 90.5. All projections like them to go Under (range 84 to 90) this season.
Additionally, there's value in Baltimore to miss the playoffs (public projection +145; listed +180); however, my personal fair line is closer to the market odds, considering I'm higher on Baltimore than the public projection. And I prefer their offensive depth to the Yankees if I'm picking teams to potentially fall apart entirely.
With Montgomery and Snell still available — and a new owner taking over in Baltimore — I'd rather not bet the latter until closer to Opening Day.
Detroit Tigers
Detroit's Under is the first consensus play we have discussed — surpassing a differential of 3.5 wins relative to my projection, the public projection and the composite projection. They also overachieved by five wins last year by run differential.
The Tigers added depth this offseason, acquiring Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller.
And I like a lot of players on this team. Riley Greene is a future All-Star, Kerry Carpenter is a delightful hitter to watch, Spencer Torkelson could progress to 40 home runs, I expect Colt Keith to be a solid player — and a potential Rookie of the Year candidate — and Tarik Skubal could compete for a Cy Young (if he's healthy).
Still, every projection system (range 75-79) likes Detroit to finish below .500 this season. Bet Under to 80.5.
Additionally, there's value in the Tigers missing the playoffs (projected -450, listed -200) if you're comfortable laying juice.
Los Angeles Dodgers
By the public projections (range 93-102), the Dodgers are the most over-valued regular season team heading into the 2024 season. The public projection would take the Under to around 100.5 (peak projection 101.4); the composite projection would demand Under 104 or better.
Milwaukee Brewers
Similar to the Rays, the Brewers never rebuild — they only reload. And despite a potentially wonky starting rotation, Milwaukee is the projected top defensive team in the league and has the best bullpen baseball. The Brewers should continue to excel at run prevention, even if they deploy their pitchers a bit more unorthodox than other teams.
I would bet the Brewers' Over to 79 — at nearly a four-win differential compared to my projection and nearly a three-win differential compared to the composite projection.
Additionally, even the public projection (range 79-81) sees value in Milwaukee to make the playoffs (projected +214) and to win the NL Central (projected +456), with the most optimistic forecasts sitting at +185 and +388, respectively. And I'm more optimistic about the Brewers than the public projection market.
Considering the potential that their division-mates continue to add, I will only play Milwaukee's Over and divisional odds for now, but may add the playoff bet closer to Opening Day.
Oakland Athletics
After losing 112 games last season, the public projection (range 63-71) loves the Athletics to bounce back in their likely final season in the Bay Area. Although I'm only slightly optimistic about the A's (projected 59 wins), the composite projection would recommend the Over up to 59. You can find as low as 56.5 — which I'm much more comfortable with.
Oakland played much better in the second half of 2023 (25-45; 57.8 win pace), and its pitching (5.17 xFIP; 30th in MLB) should be better in 2024.
St. Louis Cardinals
There's only one team in the NL Central that I like more than the market, but I'm most pessimistic about the Cardinals, who worked to revamp their rotation (adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn) this offseason.
While the projection market aligns more closely with their listed odds, I would bet the Cardinals Under to 85. However, I'd prefer to bet the Under rather than the Cardinals to miss the playoffs (public projection +121, listed -105) — there's a more significant edge in the win total market.
Texas Rangers
The reigning World Series champions fit the criteria for a consensus Under. Every projection (range 82-86) expects the Rangers to finish well below expectations, despite underachieving by six wins last season.
Texas will start the season without Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Max Scherzer. It should improve in the second half as those three arms return to the fold, and I would consider betting the Rangers' World Series or divisional futures closer to the All-Star break.
For now, bet the Rangers Under to 88.5, and bet them to miss the playoffs, too (public projection -105; listed +175).
Washington Nationals
The Nationals also overachieved by both run differential (+4 wins) and performance in one-run games (+7 wins) last season. Additionally, I project them as a worse team in 2024 than in 2023, and PECOTA (projected 61.4 wins in 2023, 57.8 in 2024) agrees. Davenport and FanGraphs have the exact preseason expectations for this team compared to last season (65-66 wins).
Regardless, all projections fall below Washington's listed win total, and I project the Nationals for the fewest wins in the National League and the second-fewest wins in baseball.
Washington's Under doesn't satisfy the public projection, but it is the most significant outlier compared to my projection. Bet the Under to 68.
Additionally, I like the Nationals to finish with the fewest wins in baseball in 2024, since they are fourth or fifth on the odds board, depending on the book. Take +1000 or better on that prop.
Divisional Futures
- Cleveland Guardians, Win the AL Central (+400, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Los Angeles Angels, Exact Finishing Position: 5th (+900, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Milwaukee Brewers, Win the NL Central (+1000, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Tampa Bay Rays, Win AL East (+800, 0.25u) at Superbook
For Sean Zerillo's complete team-by-team analysis ahead of the 2024 season, click here.
Cleveland Guardians
The public projection likes the Guardians to win 81-85 games and surpass their win total, but I'd want Over 77.5 or better to place a bet compared to the composite projection.
At current odds, there's more value in betting Cleveland to win the AL Central (public projection +234) and to make the playoffs (public projection +144) at this stage. Even if I eliminate the most optimistic projection from that forecast, I still get projected odds of +326 and +174, respectively, compared to listed odds of +400 and +250.
Considering I am slightly high on Cleveland compared to its win total — and low on each of the other four teams — the Guardians are the clear standout value play in the division.
Los Angeles Angels
Despite losing Shohei Ohtani, the public projection (range 74-79) loves the Angels to surpass last season's record. Those sources recommend their Over (to 73), but the composite projection would wait for 71.
Additionally, the public projection predicts the Angels will make the playoffs (projected +698, listed +1300) more often than the odds suggest.
Playoff Futures
- Cleveland Guardians, Make the Playoffs (+250, 0.3u) at BetMGM
- Miami Marlins, Make the Playoffs (+300, 0.25u) at Caesars
- New York Yankees, Miss the Playoffs (+340, 0.25u) at BetMGM
- San Francisco Giants, Make the Playoffs (+160, 0.25u) at Caesars
- San Francisco Giants, Make the Playoffs (+230, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Tampa Bay Rays, Make the Playoffs (+150, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Texas Rangers, Miss the Playoffs (+175, 0.25u) at BetMGM
For Sean Zerillo's complete team-by-team analysis ahead of the 2024 season, click here.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins overachieved more than any team last season, finishing nine wins better than expected based on run differential. And if you flip the result of every one-run game, they would have finished 64-97, a 20-game difference.
Public projections still expect them to take a step forward compared to expected results from last season (range 77-81), but there's no value in the win total market.
Instead, I like the Marlins to make the playoffs (projected +216, listed +300), compared to projections as low as 29.3% (+241 implied) and as high as 34.3% (+192 implied).
New York Yankees
Despite adding Juan Soto, the Yankees still have a fragile, top-heavy roster in the deepest division in baseball. Aaron Judge has said the toe ligament injury which limited him to 106 games last season will need to be managed for the rest of his career, and Carlos Rodon's velocity remains down early in spring training. And if they were going to sign additional marquee-free agents — like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery — I'd expect them to have done so by now.
PECOTA expects the Bombers to surpass 94 wins — six games clear of any other team in the division — but other public projections put their expectation around 88, creating a perceived edge against their win total Under 93.5 compared to a combined public projection of 89.5.
My projection (92) falls near the midpoint of the range of those public projections, and the combined composite projection (90.8) creates a more balanced target for analyzing all win totals. I'd probably want Under 94 or Under 94.5 to consider placing a win total bet at a 3 to 3.5 win difference or more, compared to my projection or the composite projection.
Unsurprisingly, since my projection is lower than their win total, I don't see value concerning the Yankees' odds of winning the AL East, the AL pennant or the World Series. However, there is a slight edge on their odds of missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
BetMGM has the Yankees at +340 (22.7% implied odds) to miss the playoffs, compared to projected odds of 24.7% (+305 implied) from FanGraphs and 34.4% (+191 implied) from ZIPS. PECOTA — which easily has the highest public projection on the Yankees — put their odds of missing the postseason at just 8.5% (+1077 implied).
While I'd want a better number to bet the Yankees' win total under, there's likely more value on their odds of missing the playoffs completely.
San Francisco Giants
Public projections think that the Giants can snag a wild-card spot this season between 33% (+203 implied odds) and 41% (+143 implied odds) of the time, leaving enough of an edge at +230 (30.3% implied) to take a tiny stab in that market.
Most Valuable Player
- AL: Adley Rutschman (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- AL: Bobby Witt Jr. (+2300, 0.1u) at Parx
- AL: Jose Ramirez (+3000, 0.1u) at Parx
- AL: Julio Rodriguez (+1300, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- AL: Yordan Alvarez (+1000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- NL: Austin Riley (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Bryce Harper (+1200, 0.2u) at FanDuel
- NL: Corbin Carroll (+2000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Elly de La Cruz (+12000, 0.01u) at bet365
Cy Young
- AL: Grayson Rodriguez (+3000, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- AL: George Kirby (+2000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- AL: Hunter Brown (+20000, 0.01u) at FanDuel
- AL: Logan Gilbert (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- AL: Tarik Skubal (+2200, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- NL: Bobby Miller (+5000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- NL: Freddy Peralta (+6000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- NL: Jesus Luzardo (+4000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- NL: Tyler Glasnow (+2300, 0.1u) at Parx
- NL: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1600, 0.25u) at ESPN BET
Rookie of the Year
- AL: Colt Keith (+1600, 0.1u) at bet365
- AL: Junior Caminero (+1200, 0.1u) at Caesars
- AL: Austin Wells (+7500, 0.02u) at Caesars
Home Runs Leader
- Yordan Alvarez (+1800, 0.35u) at Superbook
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+2200, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Triston Casas (+18000, 0.01u) at FanDuel
- Adolis Garcia (+8000, 0.05u) at BetMGM
- Austin Riley (+5000, 0.1u) at bet365
- Jorge Soler (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
RBI Leader
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+6500, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Rafael Devers (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Teoscar Hernandez (+12500, 0.02u) at Caesars
- Austin Riley (+1600, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Kyle Schwarber (+12000, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (+3000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Kyle Tucker (+2800, 0.1u) at DraftKings
Hits Leader
- Julio Rodriguez (+3100, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+3000, 0.07u) at Parx
- Jung Hoo Lee (+5500, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Michael Harris II (+10000, 0.03u) at FanDuel
Stolen Bases Leader
- Elly De La Cruz (+1000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Julio Rodriguez (+3500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
Wins Leader
- Zach Eflin (+10000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- George Kirby (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Pablo Lopez (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Framber Valdez (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Logan Webb (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
Strikeouts Leader
- Hunter Greene (+3000, 0.1u) at Parx
- Pablo Lopez (+2500, 0.1u) at ESPN BET
- Nick Pivetta (+10000, 0.02u) at BetMGM
Saves Leader
- Jhoan Duran (+2000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Jordan Romano (+2300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Devin Williams (+1750, 0.1u) at Caesars
