MLB Futures Post-Trade Deadline: Bets for Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, More
Getty Images. Pictured (left to right): Randy Arozarena, Jack Flaherty, Jazz Chisholm Jr.
There was no shortage of trades before the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Most of the contenders – like the Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles, Phillies, Mets, Padres, Mariners and Astros – got in on the deadline action in some fashion.
Impact players on the move included: RHP Jack Flaherty, OF/IF Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF Randy Arozarena, OF Jorge Soler, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, LHP Tanner Scott, RHP Carlos Estevez and many more.
Where does the MLB futures market stand after a dizzying past few days on the transaction front? Analysts Tanner McGrath and Kenny Ducey break down all the key deadline trades and offer bets on World Series futures, Division winners and League winners below.
MLB Futures Post-Trade Deadline
American League Trades
Baltimore Orioles
- Orioles get LHP reliever Greg Soto
Phillies get RHP pitching prospects Seth Johnson, Moises Chace - Orioles get OF Eloy Jimenez
White Sox get LHP Trey McGough - Orioles get LHP Trevor Rogers
Marlins get IF Connor Norby, OF Kyle Stowers - Orioles get RHP Zach Eflin
Rays get OF Matthew Etzel, RHP Jackson Baumeister, UTL Mac Horvath - Orioles get RHP Seranthony Dominguez, OF Christian Pache
Phillies get OF Austin Hays - Orioles get OF Austin Slater, IF Livan Soto, Cash
Reds get PTBNL, Cash
Boy, the Orioles are truly in a strange spot as they begin to learn what life is like with a new owner who’s willing to spend money. The acquisition of Corbin Burnes over the offseason seemed to start things off on the right foot, but their first trade deadline under the new regime certainly fell flat.
The big headliner — the Eloy Jimenez trade — would have seemed unfathomable for the old Orioles. Could you have imagined this team taking on a salary dump like the Dodgers did for years with the likes of Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett? Well, it’ll now be up to this incredible staff, which has developed countless hitters, to work their magic again and find the potential in the bat of Jimenez. They didn’t have to give much to get him, of course, given they were willing to eat the contract. But could that influence them to play him on a team with many mouths to feed?
This team was already struggling to find at-bats for Heston Kjerstad, and now he’ll have to operate in a presumptive timeshare at DH with Jimenez. The team also decided to shore up its look against left-handed pitching by adding Austin Slater, but is there anything left in the veteran’s bat at this point?
This deadline simply looks like a puzzling one for Baltimore, a team that didn’t really make any poor trades but failed to make a good one to help gain some separation in the AL East from a red-hot Yankees team that went out and added Jazz Chisholm Jr., who was the best bat traded at the deadline.
The O’s were willing to dip into their wealth of prospects by trading away Connor Norby, but all that netted them was a pitching project in Trevor Rogers. This team’s inability to develop pitching certainly makes that a head-scratcher when there were plenty of teams looking to sell established, controllable starters.
We don’t know what happened behind the scenes, but there are not enough roster spots for all this talent. Kjerstad is already blocked at the big-league level, and there’s no need to retain the likes of Coby Mayo, Dylan Beavers, Sam Basallo and even Jackson Holliday with an incredibly young, effective offense on the field.
It would have seemed this team had more than enough assets to net Garrett Crochet or Jack Flaherty. Despite the exorbitant price tag on Tarik Skubal, no other team could have paid it other than Baltimore while remaining a contender.
I would have liked to see Flaherty join this team, given what he cost, and I don’t think Slater and Jimenez were enough of an upgrade to this team’s look against left-handers to make a huge impact. With New York looking potent at the plate and adding much-needed bullpen help despite failing to make another splash, I think this division may get away from Baltimore. — Kenny Ducey
Kenny's Bet: Yankees To Win AL East (-115, bet365)
New York Yankees
- Yankees get RHP reliever Mark Leiter Jr.
Cubs get RHP reliever Jack Neely, IF Ben Cowles
Honestly, this one didn’t make much sense to me. Jack Neely was cruising through the Yankees’ minor league system this season, with a 2.61 ERA in 31 Double-A innings before starting Triple-A with a 0.93 ERA until July 28, when he was touched up for three runs.
It would have seemed like Neely, with incredible strikeout numbers and a dominant season, could have helped the Yankees the same way they hope Mark Leiter Jr. can. The thinking, surely, was that Leiter has been pitching late innings at the big-league level all season and seemed to be humming along after coming back from injury with 7 2/3 perfect innings for Chicago this month with 14 strikeouts.
Leiter will surely only get better under one of the best pitching coaches around — Matt Blake — but did the team need to move Neely to get it done? Time will tell, but it only affirms my belief that this team will snatch the division. — Kenny Ducey
Kenny's Bet: Yankees To Win AL East (-115, bet365)
- Yankees get CF/2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Marlins get C Agustin Ramirez, IF Jared Serna, INF/OF Abrahan Ramirez
Here’s the thing about the Jazz Chisholm Jr. deal.
Yes, it makes the Yankees' lineup better. They needed another lefty bat to pair alongside Juan Soto, Anthony Rizzo and Alex Verdugo. It makes the lineup more balanced and less top-heavy.
However, what are they going to do defensively? Gleyber Torres isn’t moving off second base, and he’s a bad second baseman (-4 DRS this season). Do you put Chisholm at short, where he was a below-average defender in 2021 (-5 DRS in 2021)? He’s also been a horrific outfielder (-9 DRS this year). They may continue to play him at the hot corner, and that can’t be good because he doesn’t have great arm strength.
This is the problem with the Yankees. The sport’s rule changes have prioritized speed and defense, yet the Bronx Bombers continue to target inelastic players. Chisholm is a great speed-power player, but he’s also a career 104 wRC+ hitter who strikes out almost 30% of the time and can’t play defense.
I still like the Orioles to win the AL East. — Tanner McGrath
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians made several monster changes to Progressive Field in the offseason, removing large parts of the outfield bleachers alongside shipping containers previously used for corporate sitting rooms. Thus, more wind has been blowing through the park, drastically increasing the field’s park factors.
Cleveland's lineup has greatly benefited from the changes, especially considering its contact-based nature – its lame-duck batted-ball profile means less now.
However, the Guardians rotation has struggled, specifically because it’s filled with fly-ball pitchers who have home-run problems. Cleveland starting pitchers have posted the fifth-lowest ground-ball rate among MLB rotations since the start of 2021, and those extra fly balls are turning into more home runs this year – the Guardians own the second-highest rotation HR/FB rate in baseball (14%), trailing only the Rockies.
Throwing Alex Cobb in the mix is perfect. His sinker-heavy approach fits perfectly with this unit, as his career 55% ground-ball rate will play in the now-homer-friendly Progressive Field.
Bresnahan is a super young southpaw who could fare well for the Giants down the line, but the Guardians need to win now, and giving up a young prospect arm for a ground-ball pitcher could really help the first-place Guardians. — Tanner McGrath
- Guardians get OF Lane Thomas
Nationals get LHP Alex Clemmey, IF Jose Tena, IF Rafael Ramirez
This was one of the pricier acquisitions made at the deadline, but the Guardians have no choice but to go for it with a clear path to victory in the AL Central and an offense that has rounded into a complete one.
Lane Thomas looks like a World Series-type acquisition for the Guardians. He might not help this team’s struggles against righties all that much, but he will fit right in on a contact-oriented offense that ranks eighth in stolen bases.
Cleveland can now replace some inexperienced and waffling offensive players cycling through its outfield with Thomas and add him next to Steven Kwan to create one of the strongest first four in the AL.
I’m a noted fan of the Yankees in the AL after the deadline, considering I’m now a non-believer in the Orioles, but if there’s any team that can keep up, it’s Cleveland. This was an already-strong Guardians offense that didn’t garner much fanfare in the first half, and I think with Thomas, they’ll jettison themselves into elite territory. — Kenny Ducey
Kenny's Bet: Guardians to win American League Pennant (+650, FanDuel)
Houston Astros
- Astros get LHP Yusei Kikuchi
Jays get RHP Jake Bloss, IF/OF Joey Loperfido, IF Will Wagner
OK. I’ll admit it. This was a massive overpay by Houston.
The problem is that there’s a chance Jake Bloss – who was Houston’s No. 2 overall prospect – can produce similar results to Yusei Kikuchi down the stretch. Joey Loperfido is a 25-year-old MLB-ready prospect who has already kicked in some decent at-bats at this level (87 wRC+ across 118 PAs), not to mention his dominant minor-league production (143 wRC+ in 365 Double-A PAs this season). At this point, Will Wagner is just a bonus.
But Kikuchi’s having a great year! He’s found an extra tick of velocity on his fastball, leading to an uptick in his advanced pitching model metrics (110 Stuff+, 102 Location+). He’s on pace for a career-high strikeout minus walk rate (20%) and a career-low xFIP (3.41). I also still believe in his secondary stuff – he has four pitches with a whiff rate near 30%.
So, why has Kikuchi been so bad? A 4.75 ERA across 115 innings shouldn’t be worth this haul.
It’s because of a crazy-high BABIP (.340, career .309) and a stunningly poor batted-ball profile (15th percentile or lower in avg. exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed).
I bought the Astros to win the AL West at almost 3-to-1 during their crazy early season slump. Their lineup mashes, Hunter Brown is turning into a stud, and their bullpen is starting to perform closer to where we expected. Despite what Seattle did at the deadline, I believe this to be the best team in the AL West.
Kikuchi only helps, especially if he sees some natural positive regression. Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections give Houston a 70% chance of winning the division. I align with that projection, so I would still advise a wager on Houston at some current market prices. — Tanner McGrath
Tanner's Bet: Astros to win AL West (+100, bet365)
Seattle Mariners
- Mariners get OF Randy Arozarena
Rays get OF Aidan Smith, RHP Brody Hopkins, PTBNL - Mariners get RHP reliever Yimi Garcia
Jays get OF Jonatan Clase, C Jacob Sharp - Mariners get 3B Justin Tuner
Jays get OF RJ Schreck - Mariners get RHP JT Chargois
Marlins get RHP Will Schomberg
I don’t think the Mariners’ deadline moves will help them enough.
Seattle made a full buy at the deadline, trading six prospects for two bats and two relief arms.
The problem is that its best addition is Yimi Garcia, the reliever who was dealing north of the border (32 IP, 2.53 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 36% strikeout rate, 0.9 fWAR).
But the Mariners don’t need more pitching – they already have a borderline-elite pitching staff. They need hitting, as Seattle is among the worst lineups in the league, especially amidst Julio Rodriguez’s slump (100 wRC+) – the youngster’s plate discipline is a real issue (27% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate).
Randy Arozarena has proven himself to be a 3-4 win player, and Justin Turner hasn’t posted a below-average wRC+ since 2013. You could also argue both are underperforming based on expected statistics.
But Houston ranks top- 10 in hitting fWAR (15.7) and wRC+ (109). The Astros have a devastating trio of hitters in Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, plus Alex Bregman is trending up (129 wRC+ over the past month).
Seattle ranks bottom 10 in hitting fWAR (9.3) and wRC+ (95). Only two players in its regular nine-man lineup have an above-average OPS. And you expect me to believe Arozarena and Turner will be the difference makers?
Seattle leads the division by one game entering Wednesday, but Houston looks like the better, more well-rounded squad.
And if the Mariners fall behind in the divisional race, they’ll be thrust into a brutal wild-card race. Do you trust their bats against the Twins, Royals and Red Sox?
I don’t. PECOTA projects the Mariners with a 30% chance to make the postseason, and I’m looking to bet them to miss the playoffs. — Tanner McGrath
Tanner's Bet: Mariners to miss the Playoffs (+105, Caesars)
Boston Red Sox
- Red Sox get RHP reliever Lucas Sims
Reds get RHP Ovis Portes - Red Sox get RHP Quinn Priester
Pirates get 2B/OF Nick Yorke - Red Sox get C Danny Jansen
Jays get IF Cutter Coffey, INF Eddinson Paulino, RHP Gilberto Batista - Red Sox get RHP Luis Garcia
Angels get RHP Ryan Zeferjahn, UTL Matt Lugo, RHP Yeferson Vargas, UTL Niko Kavadas - Red Sox get LHP James Paxton
Dodgers get IF Moises Bolivar
I must admit, I somewhat like how the Red Sox handled the deadline.
Boston boasts the league’s most dynamic offense. There’s speed up and down the lineup, meaning the Red Sox can overperform in the BABIP department (league-leading .322 on the season, 10 points higher than the next-best team) while manufacturing runs on the basepaths (99 stolen bases, second in AL; 4.3 BaseRunning Runs, second in AL). It provides a really high run-scoring floor.
But that’s selling the Sox short. Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill are ascending to never-before-seen heights, while Triston Casas should eventually return from injury and boost the lineup in the second half.
On the mound, Andrew Bailey’s unique coaching style helped turn Boston's pitching staff from one of the league’s worst to one of the best. The Red Sox rank fourth in pitching fWAR (12.5) this season, primarily because they throw fewer fastballs and more breaking/offspeed stuff.
That said, the Red Sox arms were wearing down. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are all young and reaching career highs in innings, all while Nick Pivetta and Cooper Criswell have dealt with injuries. The bullpen has imploded, posting a league-high ERA over the past month (6.44).
So, the Red Sox need arms. Any arms will do because Coach Bailey and Co. could potentially reform these acquisitions as they did the holdovers – remember, the Red Sox finished 20th in pitching fWAR last season (13.8), barely flipped the staff over in the offseason, and improved tremendously behind new coaching.
Lucas Sims, Quinn Priester, Luis Garcia and James Paxton are four low-risk arms who could overperform with better coaching. At the minimum, these guys will take pressure off the staff’s younger arms, who all feel the pain of handling so many high-leverage innings.
I also don’t mind the Danny Jansen acquisition. Reese McGuire was a disaster at the plate (59 wRC+), so the Sox can finally get him off the roster. Additionally, Jansen’s proclivity for pulling fly balls (53% pull rate, 96th percentile; 50% fly-ball rate, 99th percentile) from the right side of the plate should work at Fenway, where he can play volleyball with the monster down the stretch.
The Red Sox are among the more dangerous teams in the AL wild-card race. I’m trying to find ways to buy this team in the second half, as the lineup provides a high floor, and the run-prevention coaching provides a high ceiling.
For now, PECOTA projects the Red Sox to make the playoffs 44% of the time (+127 implied odds), while FanGraphs projects they make it 38% of the time (+163 implied odds). Both numbers show value against the market prices (+210, DraftKings).
The cherry on top: The Red Sox didn’t have to sell any of their top prospects. The Roman Anthony-Marcelo Mayer-Miguel Bleis-Kyle Teel-Kristian Campbell era is still on the horizon. — Tanner McGrath
Tanner's Bet: Red Sox to make the Playoffs (+210, DraftKings)
Texas Rangers
- Rangers get LHP Andrew Chafin
Tigers get RHP Joseph Montalvo, RHP Chase Lee
Surprisingly, I love this deal for the Rangers.
Joseph Montalvo is considered a borderline top-20 prospect in the organization, while Chase Lee doesn’t make many top-50 lists. The Rangers didn’t give up much.
And what they got was a reliable producer in an area of need. The Rangers have the most erratic bullpen in baseball, with the second-highest reliever walk rate (11%) and a bottom-10 reliever Location+ mark (98). Their top-six highest-used relievers – David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Jose Urena, Jacob Latz, Jonathan Hernandez and Kirby Yates – have issued 122 combined walks, intentional walks and HBPs in 211 innings. That’s erratic.
Chafin was the best reliever in Detroit’s command-oriented bullpen. He’s struck out 31% of batters this year, posting a 3.16 ERA across 37 innings. He has deceptive stuff and a cool mustache.
I don’t think the Rangers have the horses to compete in the AL West or AL wild-card race, but this is the perfect deadline addition for the team, and they didn’t overpay. — Tanner McGrath
National League Trades
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Dodgers get: RHP Jack Flaherty
Tigers get: 1B/C Thayron Liranzo, SS Trey Sweeney
What an unbelievable deal for the Dodgers.
Sure, they were forced to give up a top-five organizational prospect (Liranzo). But they also got a guy who was a dark horse Cy Young contender in the AL.
Make no mistake, Flaherty is having an incredible season. I don’t know how he continues to strike out so many batters, but his 32% strikeout rate is a career high and among the best in the league. His stuff isn’t great, but he has a super flat approach angle on his fastball and is generating crazy whiff numbers on his secondaries (39% whiff rate on the slider, 44% whiff rate on the knucklecurve).
No matter how he’s done it, Flaherty has struck out at least five batters in 16-of-18 starts. He’s running with a sub-three ERA and a 2.57 expected FIP. He’s the impact starter the Dodgers need.
And the Dodgers need impact starters. The only two healthy starting pitchers on the staff are Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone. Walker Buehler is having a brutal season, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto recently hit the 60-day IL.
This is a huge move for the Dodgers. Hopefully, the lineup gets healthy again.
— Tanner McGrath
- Dodgers get Amed Rosario
Rays get RHP Michael Flynn
If you know me, you’ll know I love this trade – because I see the value in Amed Rosario that many don’t see.
The Dodgers have been one of the most patient teams at the plate over the last few seasons, ranking second in walk rate this year. They possess plenty of power, with the third-highest ISO in the league and one that has risen over .200 in the past two weeks of play.
Rosario swings at a lot of pitches and puts the ball in play, which takes pitchers out of their rhythm. L.A. gets plenty of runners on base via the walk, and by making contact with the baseball, Rosario can move them around and drive them in. While he’s not an elite talent in a vacuum due to his lack of pop or walks, this simply wasn’t what the Dodgers needed, given their strong power profile.
Rosario should be a natural fit, with his ability to play five positions being a huge bonus for a Dodgers team that loves to move their position players around the diamond. I’m not quite sure why the Rays thought of him as a platoon option given he’s hitting .301 against righties this year and a perfectly acceptable .265 for his career, but should the Dodgers decide to go that route, they’ll very much enjoy a more reliable offensive look with Jayson Heyward filling the strong side.
More importantly, however, the Dodgers are walking wounded in the infield, with Max Muncy still missing in action and Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor going down with injuries. Rosario can help bolster the depth there and won't be a liability against right-handers should the team decide to play him every day in favor of a very poor hitter in Cavan Biggio, or Gavin Lux once he inevitably cools back down.
All we can hope is that the Dodgers learned their lesson from their loss to the Diamondbacks in last year’s NLDS, where they left Rosario off the postseason roster in favor of Kolten Wong, who struck out in a bases-loaded situation. Platoon him, fine, but don’t get cute here. Let Amed Rosario cook.
— Kenny Ducey
- Dodgers get OF Kevin Kiermaier
Jays get LHP Ryan Yarbrough
This trade broke mere seconds before the Jack Flaherty deal, so it may have gotten lost in your feed. Well, as crazy as it sounds, this could be one of — if not the biggest — moves made on Tuesday.
Kevin Kiermaier is the perfect Dodger, bringing Gold Glove defense to center field and five years of postseason experience with the Rays and Blue Jays. He came up with some huge knocks for the Rays during their run to the World Series in 2020 and hit .368 across six games versus the Dodgers in the Fall Classic. He is a more reliable left-handed bat off the bench than James Outman, Gavin Luz or Cavan Biggio. He can also fill in at center field should rookie Andy Pages continue to struggle.
On top of that, L.A. got rid of probably its worst pitcher — Ryan Yarbrough — to make the deal.
Great trade. — Kenny Ducey
- Dodgers get UTIL Tommy Edman, RHP Michael Kopech, RHP Oliver Gonzalez
Cardinals get RHP Erick Fedde, OF Tommy Phan, PTBNL from Dodgers
White Sox get OF Miguel Vargas, 2B Jeral Perez, IF Alexander Albertus, PTBNL from Dodgers
The Dodgers didn’t need more help with infield depth after acquiring Amed Rosario, but this one could be fun. Miguel Vargas was struggling to find playing time after they decided to keep him in the corner-outfield spots, and now the team will bring a more polished hitter who can help out at second, short, right and even center.
Edman is a switch-hitter with similar platoon splits, which makes him the kind of versatile player the Dodgers always drool over, and he has the postseason experience we’ve spoken about with Kiermaier. It now seems hard to imagine the Dodgers would fall into a predicament in the infield as they did for months when Muncy and Mookie Betts were injured. Edman is similar to Rosario because he’s a disruptor in a lineup filled with patient hitters.
The Michael Kopech angle here is also interesting considering the Dodgers are currently leaning on some aging arms and surely have to be expecting another back-breaking injury to Daniel Hudson — like the one they were dealt last year. Kopech should be able to go multiple innings, and with Brusdar Graterol set to return any day now, the late innings should be impossible on opposing teams should Evan Phillips turn his season around.
If he can’t? No big deal, you’ve got four late-inning arms (for now) who should thrive under pitching coach Mark Prior.
It cost L.A. one of its favorite young bats in Jeral Perez, but it seems to be worth paying, considering this vaults them into an even more favorable spot to win the World Series. — Kenny Ducey
Kenny's Bet: Dodgers to win World Series (+550, Caesars)
San Diego Padres
- Padres get LHP Tanner Scott, RHP Bryan Hoeing
Marlins get LHP Robby Snelling, RHP Adam Mazur, IF Graham Pauley, IF Jay Beshears
AJ Preller at the deadline: the gift that keeps on giving.
But make no mistake – this is a monster move for San Diego. Tanner Scott is an elite reliever. He’s been nearly perfect this season (1.18 ERA) and is currently on a 17-outing shutout streak. He’s been the most valuable reliever by win probability added over the past year or so.
Getting Bryan Hoeing is a bonus, given he’s an above-average stuff guy (101 Stuff+, 103 Location+), even if his current numbers aren’t spectacular (30 IP, 2.70 ERA, 5.35 xERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.44 xFIP).
I’m unsure if the Padres needed reliever help. They rank 12th in reliever fWAR (2.6) and should’ve seen natural positive regression from their original guys (4.17 ERA, 3.88 xFIP), especially because the team leads MLB in reliever Stuff+ (111).
Still, adding Scott to the Robert Suarez-Yuki Matsui core makes the Padres a formidable late-inning foe.
Before the trade deadline, I thought the Padres had the highest floor among potential NL wild-card teams. They have such a pesky, contact-based lineup behind Luis Arraez and Jurickson Profar, and they have power behind those two in Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. They’re a good defensive team (fifth in DRS, +40). Dylan Cease, Michael King and Matt Waldron have been formidable atop the rotation, and Joe Musgrove should eventually return. The bullpen acquisitions only make them more dangerous.
I’m starting to believe in the Padres. With all the injuries in the Dodgers’ lineup (especially Mookie Betts), I may take a shot with San Diego to win the NL West.
It’s worth mentioning the Padres have the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule in MLB. Their next 15 games are against the Rockies, Pirates and Marlins. They have a shot at storming up the standings. — Tanner McGrath
Tanner's Bet: Padres to win NL West (+1500, BetRivers)
- Padres get RHP reliever Jason Adam
Rays get RHP Dylan Lesko, OF Homer Bush, C J.D. Gonzalez
This was a sneaky get for the Padres, but it was overshadowed by the trade for Scott, which cost San Diego one of their best prospects in Robby Snelling.
The thing is, Dylan Lesko – like Snelling and Adam Mazur, who went over to Miami – had pretty poor numbers this year despite owning a solid pedigree as a first-round pick in 2022. He will be better suited in Tampa Bay anyway, and not in this joke of a Padres system, so the trade makes sense for both sides.
A.J. Preller will continue finding the talent, and when he can’t develop it, he’ll just ship it away for immediate help. It hasn’t helped him win a World Series yet, and I’m not sure Jason Adam does that either, but it’s hard to argue that a high-leverage reliever with a sub-two ERA wasn’t a good add. Now, he can combine with Scott, Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada as the Padres attempt to rival the relief stable that the Dodgers built.
Still, I’m not sure beefing up the bullpen will take San Diego past L.A. in the division or the playoffs. It needed some additional offensive help and perhaps a power bat.
I will save myself the pain and agony of a bet in the futures market on the Padres. — Kenny Ducey
New York Mets
- Mets get RHP Paul Blackburn
A’s get RHP Kade Morris
This is exactly what the Mets needed – a reliable rotation arm.
The Mets have an elite lineup, a borderline top-10 bullpen and are better defensively than the metrics suggest, especially with Francisco Alvarez calling the shots behind the plate.
They don’t have enough starting pitchers. The Mets can’t keep relying on Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea for bulk innings. Christian Scott and Tylor Megill give them a high ceiling but a very low floor.
Paul Blackburn will give you an extra 100 innings of one-win, 4.5-ERA ball. Considering the roster construction, that's more than welcome.
I was bullish on the Mets before the deadline, and this move gives me more confidence. Projections give them a 57% chance of making the postseason, and you can still buy them at plus-money to make the playoffs.
I’m starting to believe that Atlanta, New York and San Diego will make up the three NL wild-card squads. Post-deadline, I think the Padres and Mets are better than the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Pirates, Giants, Reds, Cubs and Nationals. I’m willing to bet on that. — Tanner McGrath
Tanner's Bet: Mets to make the Playoffs (-105, DraftKings)
- Mets get OF Jesse Winker
Nationals get RHP Tyler Stuart
A match made in heaven — Jesse Winker, who fills an immediate need in right field for the Mets, will now play in front of a fanbase that’s loathed him for years.
Starling Marte will soon be back for New York, but even when he can take the field again, it’s anyone’s guess how good he’ll be. He was a massive liability in the field around his solid offensive numbers, but was a much better option against left-handers. New York can now add a great situational hitter who can rake against righties to the bench and give up on trying to get DJ Stewart to hit.
With the way the staff is throwing, shoring up one of their few slight weaknesses offensively should only thrust the Mets into the conversation to win the World Series. Winker will mitigate much of the risk brought on by the aging Marte, keep Stewart away from the batter’s box and offer a quick solution should an outfielder or DH (J.D. Martinez) go down with an injury.
Polishing up an already elite offense in a division that is anyone’s, especially with the Phillies floundering and failing to make a big splash at the deadline, puts New York in a great spot. — Kenny Ducey
- Mets get RHP reliever Ryne Stanek
Mariners get OF Rhylan Thomas
While I liked the addition of Winker, I can’t say I'm fond of this one. Ryne Stanek has lost a lot of his luster over the past few seasons. He posted a 4.09 ERA last year in Houston and did little to improve this season with a 4.38 ERA in Seattle.
The expected numbers look good, sure, and the Mets have a defense that’s been downright elite over the last couple of months. I just wonder if Stanek, who’s struggled in both the strikeout and walk departments, was worth going out and adding, considering the Mets have been inventing new bullpen options every few weeks and have a great option in Jose Butto, who is just starving for innings.
I recognize the bullpen has been a liability and that this wasn’t a very large price to pay, but I think the Mets could have done better and perhaps gone after the other relievers available. — Kenny Ducey
Kenny's Bet: Mets to win World Series (+5500, FanDuel)
Philadelphia Phillies
- Phillies get RHP reliever Carlos Estevez
Angels get RHP George Klassen, LHP Samuel Aldegheri - Phillies get LHP Tanner Banks
White Sox get SS William Bergolla
The Phillies needed a young arm and a boost offensively. Well, they paid probably the highest price for a reliever at the deadline other than Tanner Scott to acquire … Carlos Estevez. Then, they went out and got … Austin Hays?
I’m unsure where Philly is going with these moves, particularly given that it has a respected farm system. It could have probably acquired either Scott, who cost a similar price to Estevez, or perhaps added multiple relievers instead of paying up for Estevez.
The hope is that magical healer Kevin Long can find the potential in Austin Hays’ bat, but with the way this team has hit over the past month, it sure does seem like it could have used some more oomph. We read that they were connected to both Kyle Finnegan and Lane Thomas, who the Nationals were aiming to sell, and that package would have made them look like favorites again in the division.
Instead, they settled for a very unexciting consolation prize and given all the potential additions that were rumored, this deadline feels like a massive disappointment. The Phillies also lost one of their top prospects in pitcher George Klassen. — Kenny Ducey
Atlanta Braves
- Braves get OF Jorge Soler, RHP Luke Jackson
Giants get IF Sabin Ceballos, LHP Tyler Matzek
Atlanta has severely underperformed on offense. Among MLB lineups, the Braves have the second-largest negative differential between xSLG (.439) and actual (.405), alongside the third-largest negative differential between xwOBA (.325) and actual (.308).
Surprisingly, the Braves have dominated on the mound. Behind NL Cy Young favorite Chris Sale, the Braves rank fourth in starting pitching fWAR (10.1). Behind the Joe Jimenez-Aaron Bummer-Raisel Iglesias trio, the Braves rank seventh in bullpen fWAR (3.3).
If Adam Duvall, Sean Murphy and Austin Riley get some more fortunate batted-ball luck down the stretch, the Braves could be a crazy dangerous team.
Throwing Jorge Soler in the mix can only help. Soler has been a consistent producer since leaving the Braves, generating 2.7 fWAR with a 122 wRC+ and 48 homers since the start of last season.
It’s also super important that the Braves grabbed an outfielder. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II are out for long stretches, leaving a large hole in the roster that Soler can help fill.
I’m seriously considering Braves World Series futures. I quite like this team. — Tanner McGrath
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pirates get OF Bryan De La Cruz
Marlins get RHP Jun-Seok Shim, UTIL Garret Forrester
The Pirates need bats. They rank 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (83). Yasmani Grandal, Michael A. Taylor and Edward Olivares have combined for an OPS+ below 60, and KeBryan Hayes hasn’t been much better (70 OPS+).
Bryan De La Cruz is having a half-decent year. He’s already smashed 18 homers after hitting 19 last season, and his xwOBA (.327) indicates he’s underperforming (.305 actual wOBA).
The Pirates have an excellent rotation behind Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller, and I’m surprisingly high on the bullpen quartet of David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Aroldis Chapman and Hunter Stratton – the Pirates rank fourth in bullpen Stuff+ (109).
Any bats help, and DLC fits that criteria. The Pirates gave up one top-30 prospect (Jun-Seok Shim), so I think the move is worthwhile.
Again, I’m buying the Mets and Padres in the NL wild-card race, so I’m unsure if this one bat will move the needle. — Tanner McGrath
- Pirates get UTL Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Blue Jays get OF Charles McAdoo
He’s not quite Yandy Diaz, but Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a fun, low-cost fit in Pittsburgh. He’ll help almost immediately with Nick Gonzales going down with an injury, and it’s not like he or even corner infielder Jared Triolo have hit well this year, around one solid month apiece.
Kiner-Falefa will aid Pittsburgh in its quest to limit strikeouts (it sits seventh-worst entering play on Wednesday), and he will only bolster an infield defense that ranks 11th in Outs Above Average this season.
The Pirates are very serious about contending, possessing a great rotation and sitting just two games out of the wild card (and six out of the division). Kiner-Falefa should be a problem-solver for them around the diamond while providing reliable contact in an offense that craves it. — Kenny Ducey
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks get LHP reliever A.J. Puk
Marlins get IF Deyvison De Los Santos, OF Andrew Pintar
Deyvison De Los Santos has posted an OPS over 1.000 at Triple-A this year, while Andrew Pintar has been flirting with a .900 OPS at Double-A. Those two guys for a reliever with an ERA and xFIP over four?
But I’m unsure if the public is grading the trade correctly. Puk’s numbers were dragged down from his disastrous start in the rotation (9.22 ERA across four starts and 14 innings), where he never should’ve been in the first place. Since returning to the bullpen, he’s posted a sub-two ERA across 32 innings with a 30% strikeout rate. He hasn’t allowed a run in 16 straight appearances, including five multi-inning affairs.
It feels like the world has given up on Puk when he’s still an elite reliever. He also takes stress off Joe Mantiply in the bullpen, the only other left-handed reliever on staff. It’s also worth mentioning that Mantiply has struggled this year, posting an ERA north of four across 40 innings – the Snakes needed a southpaw relief arm.
This is a solid deal for Arizona in an area of need. It doesn’t move the needle for me, given I prefer the Mets and Padres in the NL wild-card race, but it’s not an overpay. — Tanner McGrath
Chicago Cubs
- Cubs get RHP reliever Nate Pearson
Jays get LF Yohendrick Pinango, IF Josh Rivera - Cubs get IF Isaac Paredes
Rays get IF Christopher Morel, RHP Hunter Bigge, RHP Ty Johnson
We weren’t sure if the Cubs would sell, and while they didn’t do that, it’s also not as if they bought. Nate Pearson is not a difference-maker for one of the shakiest bullpens in baseball, and now that stable has lost Mark Leiter Jr.
With Neely expected to begin in Triple-A, the biggest liability on this team has now gotten weaker, and it’s safe to say the Cubs are gearing up for a run next year. The addition of Isaac Paredes also didn’t make a ton of sense, given that he lacks the profile to be a power hitter at Wrigley Field. They’ll add him to an infield that is expected to get heralded prospect Matt Shaw into the mix either this year or next.
Paredes doesn’t have a clear path to playing time if the Cubs are serious about Shaw, who has done nothing but hit since they drafted him in the first round last year.
Christopher Morel was a failed project in Chicago and better suited elsewhere, particularly given he was one of the worst third basemen in baseball. Still, you have to imagine Chicago could have added a controllable bullpen piece or an outfielder for him. — Kenny Ducey
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