MLB Home Run Bets: Dinger Tuesday Picks (July 9)
(Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images) Pictured: Marcus Semien
One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the maximum return of $25, an average of two-to-three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run prop picks and Dinger Tuesday predictions for July 9.
(Maximize your Dinger Tuesday action with our FanDuel promo code.)
MLB Home Run Bets: Dinger Tuesday Picks (July 9)
Citizen's Bank Park in Philadelphia is a top-10 ballpark for home runs, boosting the long ball by about 12% on average. On top of that, the weather in Philadelphia is excellent for homers, with a 37.5% boost per WeatherEdge — though it's a fairly small sample there.
With all of the powerful hitters on these teams, this a perfect game to target on Dinger Tuesday. We could potentially get most of the bonus just from this contest, with our total projection somewhat conservatively around three home runs.
While we could certainly look to the Dodgers here, I actually prefer the Phillies. Dodgers' starter Bobby Miller has a 44.9% hard-hit rate and an 11.6% barrel rate, both well above league average. He's also been rough against lefties, allowing a .537 slugging percentage and three home runs over 10 1/3 innings.
That leads me to Bryce Harper, who's +300 odds at FanDuel are the best in the industry. He has 20 homers through 76 games this season and boasts a better-than-average chance of getting one today due to the conditions and matchup. He also hits lefties and righties about equally, which should help him if he faces some southpaw relievers later in the game.
We almost always want Dinger Tuesday exposure on the Reds when they're at home as Great American Ball Park boosts home runs 24% on average. It's not especially great hitting weather, but it's also not enough to keep us away.
Unfortunately, we don't have a ton to work with on the Colorado side. The Rockies are a bad offense, and even a good park for home runs likely isn't enough to save them.
However, we have some solid options from the Reds. My favorite is Spencer Steer, who's seen an increase in his fly ball rate, hard-hit rate and barrel rate this year. Despite those solid signs (and his home ball park) his HR/FB ratio is right around league average, suggesting he's due for some positive regression.
Rockies starter Cal Quantrill is also slightly worse against righties, allowing a .416 slugging percentage this season. He'll be spelled by one of the worst bullpens in baseball — Colorado ranks 29th in xFIP and 30th in ERA — so it will be a solid matchup throughout.
We have him projected closer to +400 to hit a home run, giving us a nice edge at the best-in-market FanDuel line. That's on top of the value created from the promotion, since we have this game projected for a bit over three home runs.
The best game on the slate for overall home run projection is Rangers vs. Angels, which features an aging fly ball pitcher in Max Scherzer and effectively a bullpen game (started by Roansy Contreras) on the other side. Plus, Angel Stadium ranks sixth in the majors in home run factor, boosting homers 12% on average.
Contreras is allowing a homer every seven innings on average this year, and will be followed by an Angels' bullpen that's tied for 28th in HR/9 allowed. And, they'll be forced to use even weaker bullpen arms today assuming Contreras pitches his typical two-three innings.
I prefer Semien over the chalky Corey Seager (+235) at the current odds. We have them projected closer to each other than the line indicates, giving some value to the Semien pick.
Contreras is considerably worse against righties, with all five of the home runs he's allowed this year coming against them. It's a small enough sample size to be somewhat skeptical, but his splits are fairly extreme in all stat categories.
Odds are just one of the at-bats from Semien/Seager will come against Contreras, but it's enough to tip the scales since we don't know who the relievers will be. Plus, Semien's 9.4% HR/FB ratio is below both the league average and his career average, so he's due for a bit of positive regression.
Of course, Seager is also a solid pick, and makes sense if you're looking for a "safer" option.
How would you rate this article?
